wxsniss Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: behind but the Euro changed dramatically out west beyond D6 anyway... compared to priors - 'nough so to question handling everywhere... Exactly... this specific EC run objectively fails the "which of these is not like the others" at H5 and lack of northern stream energy. "The others" being EC 0z/12z yesterday runs, as well as GFS and GGEM. One critical lacking ingredient is the northern stream digging vorticity. If that was better, the H5 gradient is sufficiently decompressed as Will and others posted for a more amplified solution. This weekend may be the "beta" product until the PNA improves. If GEFS have any clue, the assembly line will be optimized beginning Jan 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Winter began today folks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, cut said: Loving this thread for the first time this season!!!! FINALLY!!!!!!!! If it goes to hell at 00z I’ll you let you know. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Oh geez....... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: FYP. No excitement yet until threats are imminent. No, all the melts have mostly ceased. People finally see the light we have said would be there. Now it’s just a matter of touching it and feeling it all over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No, all the melts have mostly ceased. People finally see the light we have said would be there. Now it’s just a matter of touching it and feeling it all over. now the fear of suppression starts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No, all the melts have mostly ceased. People finally see the light we have said would be there. Now it’s just a matter of touching it and feeling it all over. Many may just be keeping their skepticism to themselves lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, ice1972 said: Oh geez....... This makes me want this storm to be a bomb even more. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: now the fear of suppression starts.... But even if wknd doesn’t produce, the tide is changing and so should our undies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 9 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: This makes me want this storm to be a bomb even more. Of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 36 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Look at the AO/NAO region alone. Expect Feb 1969/1978 to make a cameo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Expect Feb 1969/1978 to make a cameo. Are you including the 1978 New England Blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 There's such a lottery with these patterns... The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently. But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern. One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams... with four weeks of pattern yet to endure. That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Are you including the 1978 New England Blizzard? Certainly potential for that magnitude down the line....I don't anticipate much, if any limitations, aside from the shear magnitude of the anomaly that it would take to rival such an occurence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Are you including the 1978 New England Blizzard? Yup... he's saying there's a distinct probability that it's wise to really get one's hopes very high for 1978 to be a p.o.s. by comparison. may have to evacuate the Cape - 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's such a lottery with these patterns... The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently. But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern. One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams... with four weeks of pattern yet to endure. That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards... Bingo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yup... he's saying there's a distinct probability that it's wise to really get one's hopes very high for 1978 - I see, I rather see a redux Jan 2005 event, but that is because the 1978 event screwed Cape Cod, but that was 11 years before I was born. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I see, I rather see a redux Jan 2005 event, but that is because the 1978 event screwed Cape Cod, but that was 11 years before I was born. Vhooom...faster than a n stream sw careening innocuously out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Vhooom...faster than a n stream sw careening innocuously out to sea. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: There's such a lottery with these patterns... The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently. But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern. One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams... with four weeks of pattern yet to endure. That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards... Tip, that was brutal! (lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Will, anyone, what does the UKMET show? Is it in range yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Yup... he's saying there's a distinct probability that it's wise to really get one's hopes very high for 1978 - You're prediction last year was great and you so far are pretty much nailing it this year. I don't say this in jest but Harv should really have you on next year rather than Cohen for a winter forecast. It will be a must read for me on here at least every year. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 My post was referring to 40/70. But I love reading your posts too Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I see, I rather see a redux Jan 2005 event, but that is because the 1978 event screwed Cape Cod, but that was 11 years before I was born. Huh... you're kidding right - holy shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Will, anyone, what does the UKMET show? Is it in range yet? We mentioned it several pages back. It shows nothing for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, FRWEATHA said: You're prediction last year was great and you so far are pretty much nailing it this year. I don't say this in jest but Harv should really have you on next year rather than Cohen for a winter forecast. It will be a must read for me on here at least every year. Keep up the good work! And Ray, Brian, Scott.....gosh the whole board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: We mentioned it several pages back. It shows nothing for this weekend. OK, its good this far out that the UKMET and EURO don't show anything for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: OK, its good this far out that the UKMET and EURO don't show anything for now. I would say that is not good at all... But the EPS having the storm is a good sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I would say that is not good at all... But the EPS having the storm is a good sign. I mean most times than not, either side folds towards a storm idea if the storm were to come true, so although the GFS and CMC is not the greatest team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, FRWEATHA said: You're prediction last year was great and you so far are pretty much nailing it this year. I don't say this in jest but Harv should really have you on next year rather than Cohen for a winter forecast. It will be a must read for me on here at least every year. Keep up the good work! Thanks. There are several other frequent flyers in here that know more than I do, but I'm just OCD enough to actually spend 24 hours meticulously articulating it all lol Lets see what happens first...I may be high for KBOS bc it seems more 1969 than 1978, so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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