weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I believe this is ok if it cycles back to phase 6 then through 7 and 8 again. Every day they’re coming in better and more leftward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: It appears early to me Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 GEFS 24 hr precip next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 What are the dark Greens over most of SNE correlate to? .50"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: To be honest, I care a bit less than usual what models show at day 3-7. In this pattern of fast zonal flow from mid pacific to W Atlantic and with split flow component you can with decent likelihood wait for the models to trend “ to the likely outcome such a pattern produces” no phasing , elongated , strung out. There are exceptions possible but those are just those . I don’t necessarily even care what the models show now at 12z or 0z tonite , can’t recall a pattern where this was this much the case If I can figure this out , most posters should be able to lol. Weenies ...The models will trend toward the fast zonal flow of the pattern (which is awful for storms) take day 5-7 phasers w a grain of salt ...until the flow slows down prepare to have “bad luck “ Totally agree about fast zonal flow generally mitigating threats, and looking at H5 you'd think this has more likelihood of trending progressive or sheared if anything. Most on here don't take these D6 tracks literally or with any strong confidence. But a strong vort max can itself buckle the flow. And seeing this signal on multiple runs of all the main globals (Euro, GFS, GGEM) gets my attention. I have little confidence in track, but I think this is the most promising signal we've had for a storm so far this season, whether it is OTS or not. Personally I'll be at a conference in CA next weekend, but I'm rooting for our hood (as well as a little playoff snow magic of yore). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 A few inches from a progressive open wave that drops a couple inches centered around gametime would be like a KU to me. We get a snow game and still get to have our playoff parties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, weathafella said: Every day they’re coming in better and more leftward I've noticed this over the last several days actually... That 'curl' of the curve and concomitant data poinst turning inwards keeps unfolding. It's interesting why it may be doing that? There have been times where the ends of the curve is splayed with mop ended members and a mean that ends in free space ... but this hole "fight" has been a tooth puller trying to get that curve to "admit" to phase 8... being kichy there but you know what I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Is also argue the flow is more relaxed by d5-6. Remember the image I posted to Tip that showed how our geopotential gradient looked much more relaxed and "El Ninoish" down south? It still holds true. This isn't exactly a screaming flow... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmass495 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Pretty nice ensemble consolidation this afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is also argue the flow is more relaxed by d5-6. Remember the image I posted to Tip that showed how our geopotential gradient looked much more relaxed and "El Ninoish" down south? It still holds true. This isn't exactly a screaming flow... Rock-on brotha ... Much more conducive to conserving mechanical strength --> cyclogenesis fertility. That's one... but, it allows the whole bag of tricks to get deeper in latitude, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is also argue the flow is more relaxed by d5-6. Remember the image I posted to Tip that showed how our geopotential gradient looked much more relaxed and "El Ninoish" down south? It still holds true. This isn't exactly a screaming flow... Its definitely changing, but not sure it will be enough, and even if it is...doesn't mean we phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is also argue the flow is more relaxed by d5-6. Remember the image I posted to Tip that showed how our geopotential gradient looked much more relaxed and "El Ninoish" down south? It still holds true. This isn't exactly a screaming flow... Great point. This would be good if it actually verified like what this shows...definitely would help our cause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Is also argue the flow is more relaxed by d5-6. Remember the image I posted to Tip that showed how our geopotential gradient looked much more relaxed and "El Ninoish" down south? It still holds true. This isn't exactly a screaming flow... If you can undercut that ridge, you've effectively cut off the PAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its definitely changing, but not sure it will be enough, and event if it is...doesn't mean we phase. It would be foolish to call for a phase this far out. Any given system that is 6 days out should be met with some skepticism. My only argument is that some of the same factors that were inhibiting us in the past 4 weeks are no longer present or rapidly weakening. I know you specifically aren't arguing this, but those that are using past failure in this case aren't really analyzing the differences. My main "problem" with this event is that the longwave ridge is kind of far east. It's over like Montana which doesn't give a ton of room to amplify. It can be done for sure (hell, Jan 2005 did it with ridge like over western dakotas) but you definitely risk more seaward solutions than amped with that ridge placement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Of course the CMC model would be rain but the model usually runs warm in the bias catagory. So we now await the mighty Euro and see what its solutions provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If you can undercut that ridge, you've effectively cut off the PAC. Ciofi was illustrating this yesterday on his youtube post. It is the linch pin to our winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 god...if ever a day we could get that GGEM 168 hour solution parked on ACK ... oh wait - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: god...if ever a day we could get that GGEM 168 hour solution parked on ACK ... oh wait - Dryslot just grabbed his lotion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've noticed this over the last several days actually... That 'curl' of the curve and concomitant data poinst turning inwards keeps unfolding. It's interesting why it may be doing that? There have been times where the ends of the curve is splayed with mop ended members and a mean that ends in free space ... but this hole "fight" has been a tooth puller trying to get that curve to "admit" to phase 8... being kichy there but you know what I mean Maybe we can unfold it all the way right back into 2 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Maybe we can unfold it all the way right back into 2 and 3. 2 would be good ... 3? not so much... The composites suggest two is serviceable but 3 gets bad really really fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: 2 would be good ... 3? not so much... The composites suggest two is serviceable but 3 gets bad really really fast I think my dark sarcasm went over your head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I think my dark sarcasm went over your head. Sure did ... Just the same .. we talk about the MJO but for me (anywho) it's always just an augmenter - not a pattern drive. I'm only tacitly concerned when it enters three during a -WPO for example. In those circumstances it could just get squashed and the N. Pac dominates either way. Or...it's entering 8 robustly with a -WPO? Look out - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro should be better. Higher heights east coast I would concur, looks better at this point...maybe a little GFSish? Last night still gave us southerners down here some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It would be foolish to call for a phase this far out. Any given system that is 6 days out should be met with some skepticism. My only argument is that some of the same factors that were inhibiting us in the past 4 weeks are no longer present or rapidly weakening. I know you specifically aren't arguing this, but those that are using past failure in this case aren't really analyzing the differences. My main "problem" with this event is that the longwave ridge is kind of far east. It's over like Montana which doesn't give a ton of room to amplify. It can be done for sure (hell, Jan 2005 did it with ridge like over western dakotas) but you definitely risk more seaward solutions than amped with that ridge placement. Exactly. Totally fair assessment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Not this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: I would concur, looks better at this point...maybe a little GFSish? Last night still gave us southerners down here some snow. Still a mess but it’s bettr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Not there yet but deff has more room to amplify if the n stream wants to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Not this Euro run. Gonna be much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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