Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They continue to look like that. The EPS aren’t as good yet, but they’re ok. The 12z EPS looked like a nice building PNA, not so much in the EPO region... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha, oh man. Lock it in. The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard. Period. What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike. 4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass... 'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne How it's fun to speculate - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 then, 330 hours + corrects everyone's seasonal snow fall deficits (if they exist) to well above normal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: They continue to look like that. The EPS aren’t as good yet, but they’re ok. Feels like for the 1/11-1/18 period we're going to end up getting the 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS. GEFS were too optimistic but EPS were prob too pessimistic. So we get some chances. They both look pretty damned good once we near 1/20 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Feels like for the 1/11-1/18 period we're going to end up getting the 70/30 compromise in favor of EPS. GEFS were too optimistic but EPS were prob too pessimistic. So we get some chances. They both look pretty damned good once we near 1/20 though. Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard. Period. What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike. 4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass... 'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne How it's fun to speculate - exactly speculate................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 I'm in wait mode...I think the GEFS are too aggressive, and not much left to be said. Just waiting until 1/20...proceed with caution in relation to anything beforehand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm in wait mode...I think the GEFS are too aggressive, and not much left to be said. Just waiting until 1/20...proceed with caution in relation to anything beforehand. It looks like after the moderation period (1/13-1/19) things dramatically improve. Actually going to get some cold later this week, haven't seen that in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It looks like after the moderation period (1/13-1/19) things dramatically improve. Actually going to get some cold later this week, haven't seen that in a while. Agreed. Once the EPS confirms as we get closer, I'll start blogging again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard. Period. What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike. 4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass... 'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne How it's fun to speculate - Snowbowl at Foxboro. Let it happen. Then let's do it again the following week, assuming Indianapolis wins. (oops, also assuming we win next Sunday ). Yes, it's fun to speculate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 This would induce psychosis in some: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ground deck covered in Graupel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This would induce psychosis in some: Looks like early December storm, almost to a tee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like early December storm, almost to a tee Para gfs has a big snowstorm for everyone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Looks like early December storm, almost to a tee It’s obviously the GFS out to clown range but if that verified places in Virginia and North Carolina would have season totals 3x a lot of SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para gfs has a big snowstorm for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It’s obviously the GFS out to clown range but if that verified places in Virginia and North Carolina would have season totals 3x a lot of SNE. And the son would be a top event for us. Plenty of time to figure this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And the son would be a top event for us. Plenty of time to figure this out. Yeah, I'm not worried. Still 10 weeks of winter here and 8+ weeks for you. Only need 2 or 3.weeks of epic to make it all right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, I'm not worried. Still 10 weeks of winter here and 8+ weeks for you. Only need 2 or 3.weeks of epic to make it all right. I’m actually really excited for January 20th-March 20th. A lot of people in here seem to be sleeping on this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said: I’m actually really excited for January 20th-March 20th. A lot of people in here seem to be sleeping on this winter. You are right about the last part looking forward to my 10’th rainstorm Wednesday am in about 9 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 gfs trying to post a weenie solution this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: gfs trying to post a weenie solution this run. The northern stream showed up this run, looks like she wants to play.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Beast mode run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: The northern stream showed up this run, looks like she wants to play.... It was fun watching that Nstream vort take over, boomboom pow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 First weenie Gfs run of the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ugh, 981 at the benchmark...don't really want to see it there 6.5 days out, congrats someone else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 SE Mass / RI death band. Pretty amped solution. At least it’s in the table as an option and sumptin to track. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It was fun watching that Nstream vort take over, boomboom pow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ugh, 981 at the benchmark...don't really want to see it there 6.5 days out, congrats someone else...No worries. That’s the new classic track this past decade. Lock it. This run brings back lots of angst for us ENYers. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts