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January 2019 Discussion


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38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe the weenie logic in your head called for that? If one takes a step back, puts down the vape pen and the 4-loco....perhaps one can enter this stretch with reasonable expectations. Could we get a stretch that may be quite snowy? Sure.....but it's never good to assume that's a lock. It's like looking at the 4-8" range of snowfall and being disappointing if 4 or 5" falls. You can't focus on the big numbers.  Besides, I see nothing that has happened over the last 2 days to change my mind. If we miss next weekend, oh well. That's your problem for falling for a day 9 fantasy storm. People need to really settle down and not focus on these high end echelon analogs.

These transitional periods are pretty bad on people who lack the patience to wait through a boring period of weather.  It's probably better for them not to be looking at models until the forecasted pattern change comes.  Hibernate until Jan 20- if they miss anything it probably wont be anything momentous anyway.  Wake up just before the blood super moon total lunar eclipse on the night of the 20th (I sure hope it's clear that night!) and the pattern change coming after that.

 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The PNA is what looks to really get a lot better near and after the 20th. We will have our chances before that in a yo-yo type pattern including next weekend. 

Anything before the 20th should be considered as much of a bonus as the November storm was.  Hell, I remember people were bailing on the 10-11 winter before the Boxing Day Blizzard happened because a storm or two before that went out to sea in a cold pattern.  Imagine if we get a cold/dry pattern for a week or 10 days later this month lol.

 

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Melts are not unique to this board or even this part world when winter isn't delivering. Came across this site :)

"If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread."

" No more bickering please. A number of posts have been hidden and it could have been more.  " :)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/91115-the-hunt-for-cold-continues-020119/?page=56

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not like a switch is flipped and 2015 comes through the door. It will be gradual and 2015 is not walking through the door...but a nice stretch of wintry weather looks to come by. What are you guys expecting? :lol: 

This is my expectation. I doubt there will be another 2015 when 99” snow fell in Boston during January-February anytime soon. 

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12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How are you feeling about above average snowfall for the winter ?

50/50 to be honest. I'll tell you what though, if next weekend somehow worked out to be a WSW criteria event, I certainly would boost those chances. It just shows you how even missing events in a decent pattern (which next weekend looks to be in terms of long wave look) is just it too difficult to forecast. Random chaos and luck are big parts of good seasons.

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44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reminds me of when mid-January 2015 produced a putrid torching cutter between cold shots as the pattern was flipping and literally half of the forum melted down and cancelled winter. 

I posted a really long diatribe in one of the threads about it and couldn't understand why a cutter in mid-January meant the pattern wouldn't produce going forward. Nobody gave me a good reason in case anyone was wondering. 

Yeah, I was looking back through some of those threads yesterday. People were definitely on edge. Even a week after that, when the pattern looked epic, Kevin was swearing on his children that the winter would remain nickel and dimes at best and the storms in the LR modeling were just voodoo. And Scott was nitpicking all the things weighing against what would become our Manitoba Mauler. The funny thing was that after the blizzard the reverse psychology came into play. Systems that were modeled to miss became destined to inevitably trend in our favor. Of course, reality actually reinforced that sentiment in the end, but it was funny to see the flip in outlook after the first snows. 

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14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is my expectation. I doubt there will be another 2015 when 99” snow fell in Boston during January-February anytime soon. 

Don, I know you are the master of stats. do you have any information on how the start to this winter Stacks up against other down years in our area? 

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Yeah, I was looking back through some of those threads yesterday. People were definitely on edge. Even a week after that, when the pattern looked epic, Kevin was swearing on his children that the winter would remain nickel and dimes at best and the storms in the LR modeling were just voodoo. And Scott was nitpicking all the things weighing against what would become our Manitoba Mauler. The funny thing was that after the blizzard the reverse psychology came into play. Systems that were modeled to miss became destined to inevitably trend in our favor. Of course, reality actually reinforced that sentiment in the end, but it was funny to see the flip in outlook after the first snows. 

To be fair, the pattern was looking up in the long range. I specifically mentioned that event on 1/24 because it looked like spacing was going to be an issue and that would give 1/26-1/27 blizzard, the boot. It looked beautiful on guidance and I was fairly adamant about that missing because of the event prior. The famous "not going to happen James." :lol:   8/10 times that would be an issue, but in a winter that would soon go down as an all-timer for this area...it was destiny.

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This area is tough to predict, since at this point, one or two big storms could bring us to average. So I’d say relative to everyone else, we may have the best shot to get there because we don’t have as far to go.

Further north, pike region, etc... id feel pretty confident those areas will struggle to get to normal snowfall, unless we enter a whopper period.

Too much ground to make up, unless you’re banking on another epic run. Just my opinion

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This area is tough to predict, since at this point, one or two big storms could bring us to average. So I’d say relative to everyone else, we may have the best shot to get there because we don’t have as far to go.

Further north, pike region, etc... id feel pretty confident those areas will struggle to get to normal snowfall, unless we enter a whopper period.

Too much ground to make up, unless you’re banking on another epic run. Just my opinion

Lets say you avg ~40". Whether it's 38" or 44"..doesn't matter.  You got about 6" in November and a few tenths in December. Under 40" from now through Apr is fairly easy to do to get you to avg. Just more or less agreeing with your rationale where you are. But, climo is also snowier north and west...so one could apply similar logic up there. 

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ORH is only about 11" under climo right now. That really isn't that hard to make up if we get into a favorable pattern. 

Heres some context...if ORH repeated 2007 from here on out, they would finish with around 60"...still below average but not by much and 2007 isn't known for epic 2nd half pattern down in SNE. 

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets say you avg ~40". Whether it's 38" or 44"..doesn't matter.  You got about 6" in November and a few tenths in December. Under 40" from now through Apr is fairly easy to do to get you to avg. Just more or less agreeing with your rationale where you are. But, climo is also snowier north and west...so one could apply similar logic up there. 

Yeah... 6” in November actually helps our cause, but not even measurable in December hurts.

Who knows... we’ve seen a lot of big storms over the years, so my call make look silly if even 1 or 2 systems pan out. 

I don’t feel good about banking on huge systems to make up the difference, but it absolutely can happen.

At my new job I am part of mandatory snow operations, so obviously I’ll take the snow, but no snow is less hassle for me.

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Bottom line here....as it always is, nobody knows what’s really gonna happen!!  PERIOD!!

You have Ray who’s expecting Epic(not 15 epic, but Epic nonetheless).  You have others expecting Normal.  You have some banking on BN.  

Normal to slightly AN wont be too hard to achieve here in central CT imo(Normal is close to 50” here), I’m at almost 9 inches due to November’s nice event.  I think if things change around and we get a decent stretch...40” is not that hard to pull off between now and late March for a normal season here.  

But every chance we miss increases the odds that normal may become less attainable.  This POS Tuesday morning is a non event.  And if the weekend falls through(that’s looking less favorable now too, although way early to give up on that ), those are decent chances we are missing out on that can and would almost assure a normal snow season.  

Its still Early...I had one sledding trip to N. Maine and was able to enjoy some winter fun, so that’s always satisfying..and keeps the spirits lifted.  I can easily wait another week or two for the proposed changes to set in....I’m pulling for Ray’s ideas to pan out.  He’s been on track so far...

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

This is my expectation. I doubt there will be another 2015 when 99” snow fell in Boston during January-February anytime soon. 

I don't think 99" over 2 months is as unlikely as this implies...but 2015 did it in one month, which is. Still, odds are against either.

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH is only about 11" under climo right now. That really isn't that hard to make up if we get into a favorable pattern. 

Heres some context...if ORH repeated 2007 from here on out, they would finish with around 60"...still below average but not by much and 2007 isn't known for epic 2nd half pattern down in SNE. 

That second half under performed, too..could have easily been better.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe the weenie logic in your head called for that? If one takes a step back, puts down the vape pen and the 4-loco....perhaps one can enter this stretch with reasonable expectations. Could we get a stretch that may be quite snowy? Sure.....but it's never good to assume that's a lock. It's like looking at the 4-8" range of snowfall and being disappointing if 4 or 5" falls. You can't focus on the big numbers.  Besides, I see nothing that has happened over the last 2 days to change my mind. If we miss next weekend, oh well. That's your problem for falling for a day 9 fantasy storm. People need to really settle down and not focus on these high end echelon analogs.

All very true...the pattern could come as advertised, yet we still fall short in the snowfall department. Always that chance.

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This was never supposed to be an epic winter. And the period mid Jan- mid Feb before the Morch warmth won’t be something epic. Your area along the water should get 20-30” in that stretch . No one anywhere in SNE is getting 70-100” this year. That ship sailed faster than your undies on prom night. Just expect a normal rest of the winter with periodic snows 

Incorrect. Waaay too eary to say this...just like your infamous "nickles and dimes" proclamation in mid January 2015.

Epic is never likely...but its about as likely as it gets this season.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its funny how people are remain mired in this hapless cycle where they continuously try and rush the evolution, realize it isn't happening, lash out...rinse and repeat.

I think one frustrating part is the failure of models for even these meager events.   An inch or two here or there would help get the edginess smoothed over.

The rain is pretty off putting as well.

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