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January 2019 Discussion


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12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Signs of a significant pattern change around or perhaps shortly after mid-month continue to increase.

So far, the pattern progression appears to be on a reasonably good course relative to how things should evolve with the advance of the MJO. After a very warm first week of January, the second week will likely come in 4°-7° cooler than the first week. During the second week, there could be a fairly sharp but transient shot of cold air. Moderation could then follow ahead of the significant pattern change. Several days after the development of the trough in the East, sustained cold could move into the region.

The SOI was -18.60 today. It has now been negative for 6 consecutive days. The last time the SOI was negative for 6 consecutive days was November 14-19, 2018.

On January 4, the MJO moved into Phase 7 with an amplitude of 1.887 (RMM). That amplitude slightly higher than the January 3-adjusted figure of 1.808. The MJO's progression has accelerated in recent days. This acceleration may have more to do with redevelopment of the area of convection than the rate of progression to the East. The guidance suggests that the MJO's progression will likely slow again in coming days.

As the MJO moves through Phase 7, the AO will very likely go negative. In fact, the AO's descent may have begun. Today's preliminary value for the AO was +0.303. Yesterday, it was +0.647. To date, the AO has averaged +0.156 for meteorological winter. The AO has been positive on 67% days and negative on 33% days. Its lowest value so far is -1.201, which was reached on December 21.

The second half of January could feature the development of a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has been present for most of the region's big January snowstorms.

Finally, New York City's precipitation to date has surpassed 0.50" with today's rainfall with cities such as Allentown, Newark, Philadelphia, and Poughkeepsie having even higher precipitation to date. The January-March period could be wetter than normal. Since 1972, there were 7 prior cases to 2018 where New York City picked up 60" or more precipitation (none prior to 1972): 1972, 1975, 1983, 1989, 1990, 2007, and 2011. Five (71%) of those cases had above normal precipitation in the following January-March period. Only one saw much below normal precipitation during that period. In short, the turn to cold that appears increasingly likely after mid-month will likely be accompanied by opportunities for snowfall.

On track 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not like a switch is flipped and 2015 comes through the door. It will be gradual and 2015 is not walking through the door...but a nice stretch of wintry weather looks to come by. What are you guys expecting? :lol: 

Come on.  This was never characterized as a nice stretch of wintery weather. That sounds like a step above cold snap.  We were hearing about this in much more robust terms than that ...above normal snowfall, frequent storms (snow), things are gonna start rockin, gonna be memorable. I know not everyone used those terms but they definitely were used. Let’s compare reality to forecast, not some walked-back version of forecast. 

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2 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Come on.  This was never characterized as a nice stretch of wintery weather. That sounds like a step above cold snap.  We were hearing about this in much more robust terms than that ...above normal snowfall, frequent storms (snow), things are gonna start rockin, gonna be memorable. I know not everyone used those terms but they definitely were used. Let’s compare reality to forecast, not some walked-back version of forecast. 

Maybe the weenie logic in your head called for that? If one takes a step back, puts down the vape pen and the 4-loco....perhaps one can enter this stretch with reasonable expectations. Could we get a stretch that may be quite snowy? Sure.....but it's never good to assume that's a lock. It's like looking at the 4-8" range of snowfall and being disappointing if 4 or 5" falls. You can't focus on the big numbers.  Besides, I see nothing that has happened over the last 2 days to change my mind. If we miss next weekend, oh well. That's your problem for falling for a day 9 fantasy storm. People need to really settle down and not focus on these high end echelon analogs.

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6 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said:

Come on.  This was never characterized as a nice stretch of wintery weather. That sounds like a step above cold snap.  We were hearing about this in much more robust terms than that ...above normal snowfall, frequent storms (snow), things are gonna start rockin, gonna be memorable. I know not everyone used those terms but they definitely were used. Let’s compare reality to forecast, not some walked-back version of forecast. 

This was never supposed to be an epic winter. And the period mid Jan- mid Feb before the Morch warmth won’t be something epic. Your area along the water should get 20-30” in that stretch . No one anywhere in SNE is getting 70-100” this year. That ship sailed faster than your undies on prom night. Just expect a normal rest of the winter with periodic snows 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe the weenie logic in your head called for that? If one takes a step back, puts down the vape pen and the 4-loco....perhaps one can enter this stretch with reasonable expectations. Could we get a stretch that may be quite snowy? Sure.....but it's never good to assume that's a lock. It's like looking at the 4-8" range of snowfall and being disappointing if 4 or 5" falls. You can't focus on the big numbers.  Besides, I see nothing that has happened over the last 2 days to change my mind. If we miss next weekend, oh well. That's your problem for falling for a day 9 fantasy storm. People need to really settle down and not focus on these high end echelon analogs.

I’m not falling for any modeled storm at this point. I haven’t made one comment about this recent flurry of model excitement. I’ve been saying all along that these robust outlooks seem too good to be true the way things are actually shaping up - that we’re not going to squeeze AN snowfall into four weeks of wintry weather (which it may come down to). Please don’t mischaracterize my expectations. Those are my expectations. 

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1 minute ago, JBinStoughton said:

I’m not falling for any modeled storm at this point. I haven’t made one comment about this recent flurry of model excitement. I’ve been saying all along that these robust outlooks seem too good to be true the way things are actually shaping up - that we’re not going to squeeze AN snowfall into four weeks of wintry weather (which it may come down to). Please don’t mischaracterize my expectations. Those are my expectations. 

Sometimes variance and chaos gets in the way. Just how it goes, and why everyone should cherish the good ones...because you can suffer through a stretch of shit winters like we did in the 80s. That said, weak Ninos tend to be back loaded and can offer a hell of a stretch in 4-6 weeks. That falls under my definition of "nice wintry stretch."  I, nor does anyone else have the confidence to say epic. I know Ray said that and who knows..it may be true. Ray has history behind him....but not all of them work out. Maybe this will...we just do not know. But for once, I'm not being meh on the pattern...because it looks pretty good right now later in the month and into Feb. Maybe that changes, and you know I will easily tell people that...but I don't see anything that has changed. 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

2 weenies didn’t look at anything and posted on emotion about ugly looks, and others who just woke up and logged in here thought they knew what they were talking about 

Pretty much. I mean this week has kinda gone to hell, but that has nothing to do with the extended.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Pretty much. I mean this week has kinda gone to hell, but that has nothing to do with the extended.

Reminds me of when mid-January 2015 produced a putrid torching cutter between cold shots as the pattern was flipping and literally half of the forum melted down and cancelled winter. 

I posted a really long diatribe in one of the threads about it and couldn't understand why a cutter in mid-January meant the pattern wouldn't produce going forward. Nobody gave me a good reason in case anyone was wondering. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reminds me of when mid-January 2015 produced a putrid torching cutter between cold shots as the pattern was flipping and literally half of the forum melted down and cancelled winter. 

I posted a really long diatribe in one of the threads about it and couldn't understand why a cutter in mid-January meant the pattern wouldn't produce going forward. Nobody gave me a good reason in case anyone was wondering. 

You know the melts will happen if next weekend is OTS. :lol:   

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reminds me of when mid-January 2015 produced a putrid torching cutter between cold shots as the pattern was flipping and literally half of the forum melted down and cancelled winter. 

I posted a really long diatribe in one of the threads about it and couldn't understand why a cutter in mid-January meant the pattern wouldn't produce going forward. Nobody gave me a good reason in case anyone was wondering. 

They just dont want cutters occurring in the middle of winter lol.  People find it offensive I guess because they get rain the other 9 months of the year to not get snow when it's actually supposed to snow.  I think if people around here really wanted the climate they think we should have, they would have wanted to live back in the ice ages.  They'd probably be much happier if all precip from December thru February was all snow and then it can rain as much as it wants the other nine months of the year.

 

Thats how you separate meteorological reasoning from psychological reasoning and just put it down to people not wanting it to ever rain in the middle of winter and they just give up at that point and want to throw the whole season away (as if they could exchange it for a better one- one which suits their ideals more).

 

 

 

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