Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Maybe its just me but i'm not seeing a significant difference between the 12z model runs and also in comparison to the small trends/perturbations that exist from each model's run to run. Certainly not from a sensible weather standpoint. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Icon still has over an 1" liquid equivalent for KBUF and 1.5" for KROC and KSYR...still looks like good snow totals will be realized all upstate. ? The Icon looks awful. 3 inches for the Tug. Really shunts things south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Icon still has over an 1" liquid equivalent for KBUF and 1.5" for KROC and KSYR...still looks like good snow totals will be realized all upstate. Hmmm. Which ICON map are you seeing? 12z? Mine has Roc .75-1”, BUF less. Low resolution tidbits. AND it’s only the ICON. I’m not concerned. Just watching the bumps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Maybe its just me but i'm not seeing a significant difference between the 12z model runs and also in comparison to the small trends/perturbations that exist from each model's run to run. Certainly not from a sensible weather standpoint. Not too much overall. Just interesting from a met standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: ? The Icon looks awful. 3 inches for the Tug. Really shunts things south. Hi Matt! Have faith bro. The track still looks good for you guys in my opinion. This storm is small by your areas comparison but some models bring a nice lump north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm interested in the high-res models and their thoughts on LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Not too much overall. Just interesting from a met standpoint. I think the Ukie has pretty much finished caving in to the Euro. Maybe that's the "big" news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: I think the Ukie has pretty much finished caving in to the Euro. Maybe that's the "big" news? Yeah. Bm track is off the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I noticed just now that the WSW has been re-worded to the possibility of 9" plus from the prior 7" plus. Small change but looks to be thinking higher accums more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also always it to fall in 24 hrs instead of 12hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Through January 16, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse have seen below normal seasonal snowfall. The weekend storm should do much to reduce the snowfall deficits in those cities. In fact, Albany, Rochester, and Syracuse could move above normal by the time the storm departs. Binghamton, which has received 38.8" snow to date (2.6" above normal) should move farther ahead of normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hi Matt! Have faith bro. The track still looks good for you guys in my opinion. This storm is small by your areas comparison but some models bring a nice lump north. Thanks, Dave. This storm is large for this winter...I moved here for one of the Tug's lamest winters so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Through January 16, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse have seen below normal seasonal snowfall. The weekend storm should do much to reduce the snowfall deficits in those cities. In fact, Albany, Rochester, and Syracuse could move above normal by the time the storm departs. Binghamton, which has received 38.8" snow to date (2.6" above normal) should move farther ahead of normal. Good summary Don. Looking forward to an ne.wx snowfall contest on this one. I think there will be enough stations in play... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: UKMET caved to the FV3, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like all the globals are on the same page now or at least much better clustered than yesterday! I'd be happy with 1' as I haven't seen a solid foot since Nov which is just nuts if you think about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A normal Winter we'd be closing in on 50" but not this yr, but that may all change in the next week, or 2! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Looks like all the globals are on the same page now or at least much better clustered than yesterday! I'd be happy with 1' as I haven't seen a solid foot since Nov which is just nuts if you think about it! Us BUF folks north of Hamburg haven’t seen a foot storm in over 1 year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Us BUF folks north of Hamburg haven’t seen a foot storm in over 1 year! That'll change with this one!!! I think the globals are not doing a good enough job with mesoscale...there will be more moisture entrenched into the system due to the moisture from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 These maps are all wrong...they show New England getting too much snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: A normal Winter we'd be closing in on 50" but not this yr, but that may all change in the next week, or 2! You've got to be near 50"...hell i am. KSYR is within a couple inches of me at 47.2" thusfar this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: You've got to be near 50"...hell i am. KSYR is within a couple inches of me at 47.2" thusfar this season. My bad, lol, I meant to type 60" but for some reason typed 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, TugHillMatt said: These maps are all wrong...they show New England getting too much snow... SNE south of I-90 is a big ? mark. South coast of CT/RI/MA (I-95 corridor to Taunton) will probably roast and flood. Interior...could be a mess or a decent hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Us BUF folks north of Hamburg haven’t seen a foot storm in over 1 year! what did you get in Nov? Had to be close no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 SNE goes from a thumping snow to mix then rain then perhaps back to snow for a bit, YUK! I'd love to see them rain from start to finish with temps in the 50's, then as temps plummet, moisture should be coming to a screeching halt, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: what did you get in Nov? Had to be close no? not even remotely close by me in South Cheektowaga. 5 inches or so if I remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: These maps are all wrong...they show New England getting too much snow... Exactly. The only thing better than us getting a foot or more of snow is having it raining at the same time in Connecticut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: SNE goes from a thumping snow to mix then rain then perhaps back to snow for a bit, YUK! I'd love to see them rain from start to finish with temps in the 50's, then as temps plummet, moisture should be coming to a screeching halt, lol! Could you imagine the darts they'd be flinging at each other? Lol...they're quite the hostile crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, cny rider said: Exactly. The only thing better than us getting a foot or more of snow is having it raining at the same time in Connecticut! Mainly on Mt. Tolland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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