Syrmax Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: That could be the blizzard of 1966 all over again! Almost exactly the same time frame! I'll buy that for a dollar! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Good look, especiially with the high on the backside , gives it room to breathe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Sounds about right. Moving in on the 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Gfs is weaker and slighty more suppressed, has a second wave that rides up the front but the bulk misses to the east.. GGEM goes through wny lol Snow to rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Fv3 gives no snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 We’re still nearly a week out, all the runs are gonna change several more times and we likely won’t have a final solution until Wednesday or so. With the way this winters gone I’m expecting it to either cut like the FV3 or suppress like the GFS and either way we get screwed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 GFS has a great synoptic event and then a big LES event now. This follows the synoptic. That's a 2" per hour band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ouch. Ok. NW trend can stop. Wolfie, when you said that first image looked good with the HP, “giving it room to breath”, I thought, ‘he’s crazy, that’s cutter territory ‘. It’s one run. We are all still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro is really far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Compromising all models we are right in the middle still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro is really far east. Op is. Several members west. Plus, that’s 0z, when all othe models were likewise SE. Not time to panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: We’re still nearly a week out, all the runs are gonna change several more times and we likely won’t have a final solution until Wednesday or so. With the way this winters gone I’m expecting it to either cut like the FV3 or suppress like the GFS and either way we get screwed. Yep, these runs are fun to track but as far as sensible weather next weekend I wouldn’t jump on anything until middle of the week. If synoptic misses I just hope lake effect kicks in somewhere on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: Op is. Several members west. Plus, that’s 0z, when all othe models were likewise SE. Not time to panic. Exactly all those members are snow for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Let’s just take member 51 and call it good. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Last nigh't euro made it just south of pitt and then redeveloped.. We still picked up over an inch liquid.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Circled members would be rain/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 We need it to get up to SWPA before being shunted E/ENE.. GFS is much more west-east in track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Circled members would be rain/mix . Not for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Ukmet at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 992 MB, fully closed and amped. Would prefer this solution then an overrunning event, just a little farther east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 GEFS are way southeast. I wouldn't worry about being to far NW, just isn't happening. Suppression is what I'm worried about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS are way southeast. I wouldn't worry about being to far NW, just isn't happening. Suppression is what I'm worried about. Me too, This will never cut, never! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Many members must be leaning west to get a mean like that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Euro OP looks like it held steady. Got to love that model. Meanwhile having ridiculous heart attacks over here with the other two step children (gfs/Canadian). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 EURO FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 5 days for the EURO is like 1 day away for both the GFS and the GGEM, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 Anyone got euro maps? Looks way south, is that even a hit for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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