wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Weak multi bands set up but snow pretty decent..NW flow events are great if u like seeing snow in the air but suck if u wanna see it add up.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Its gonna get absolutely brutal the next few weeks with regards to temps and now all we need is a moisture source which shouldn't be hard to do with the warm attacking the cold so let's hope for a few memorable synoptic events in the upcoming 8-10 weeks!Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro cut that storm on the 19th lol Personally I'd rather see that than a fish storm at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's funny because it looks exactly like this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's funny because it looks exactly like this.. At the least, even with that track, their should be a shield of precip with dropping temps once the system passes to our East. The biggest problem is the HP which instesd of moving in tandem with the LP it slows down allowing for the LP to scoot on out ahead, thus highering heights out ahead a bit too much this run with a SW flow aloft, but perhaps it corrected a bit too much. We';ll see with subsequent runs how that HP behaves cause its the most important piece on the chess board right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I wouldn't put too much stock in the off runs of the GFS as the on runs aren't that good, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I don't much into anything this far out haha U think we have it bad, the N Mid-Atlantic has been watching snow to their north and south all winter .LR GFS would continue their misery.. I'm hoping for a step down process as storms have been cutting all winter.. My in-laws in CNJ have a trace of snow so far this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... While this period will be a little more active than the days leading into it...it certainly does not have the makings for any impactful storm systems. This will also mark the start of the two week period where climatologically our temperatures should be at their lowest for the year. Lets first look at the large scale hemispheric flow. The notorious polar vortex is forecast to `behave` itself during this period...as the hub for its individual shortwave lobes will remain over Baffin Island. Our most intense cold usually comes when this feature is displaced at least 500 miles further to the south. Meanwhile...the amplified flow over the Lower 48 will flatten during this time period. This will come courtesy of a wealth of Pacific energy that will finally beat down the dominant omega block over the intermountain region. The flatter flow over the country will promote some Pacific modification over the Lower Great Lakes so that our temperatures will actually average a little above normal...but not for long. High pressure nosing across our forecast area from the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday will give way to a fairly strong cold front during the day Wednesday. The front will be accompanied by some snow showers...which should be enhanced east of both lakes. Snow accumulations are not expected to be significant. Colder air in the wake of the front will force our mercury back below normal for Thursday when daytime highs will be in the teens and 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 There's actually some H700 moisture streaming in from the upper great lakes which may actually seed the light snow that's been falling steadily now throughout the are for the last few hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... While this period will be a little more active than the days leading into it...it certainly does not have the makings for any impactful storm systems. This will also mark the start of the two week period where climatologically our temperatures should be at their lowest for the year. Lets first look at the large scale hemispheric flow. The notorious polar vortex is forecast to `behave` itself during this period...as the hub for its individual shortwave lobes will remain over Baffin Island. Our most intense cold usually comes when this feature is displaced at least 500 miles further to the south. Meanwhile...the amplified flow over the Lower 48 will flatten during this time period. This will come courtesy of a wealth of Pacific energy that will finally beat down the dominant omega block over the intermountain region. The flatter flow over the country will promote some Pacific modification over the Lower Great Lakes so that our temperatures will actually average a little above normal...but not for long. High pressure nosing across our forecast area from the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday will give way to a fairly strong cold front during the day Wednesday. The front will be accompanied by some snow showers...which should be enhanced east of both lakes. Snow accumulations are not expected to be significant. Colder air in the wake of the front will force our mercury back below normal for Thursday when daytime highs will be in the teens and 20s. Yeah I read that earlier and when its this quiet something usually comes out of nowhere and gives us a few inches, lol. I've seen it happen too many times! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah I read that earlier and when its this quiet something usually comes out of nowhere and gives us a few inches, lol. I've seen it happen too many times! Agree that we should he able to grind out some minor accumulations despite a calmer looking pattern. It's almost never totally quiet around the lake... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Game on fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 We will probably see some accumulating snow on Wednesday, transient in nature.. Starts out WSW and slowly veerrs NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 How about a good westerly flow that lasts more than a few hours this winter? At this rate, I may have to wait until next winter for a blockbuster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Back to the doldrums. This time, it’s a bit colder because it’s the middle of January. It’s that driving pacific jet that’s ruining our winter. Dull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Game on fellas. To piggyback off what you said and I'll add the BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 What most predicted to begin in early January, just looks like its happening, a couple weeks to late, so it may not be too late to redeem itself to a good, but not great Winter, either way I'll take it!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Reminds me of the sabres a few years back...tanking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 A negative AO is a good thing for us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 3h3 hours ago More Been talking about the "Jan 17-19 period" for quite a while. May be more 19-20 in the end. #bsr seems to hint at a coastal ride turned Hudson Valley driver. We've got quite a bit of time on this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 It doesn't get much better then this.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 The state of the Pacific is whats starting to reconfigure itself which is what many have been waiting for including me. The North Pac has been inundated lately with a barrage of storms one after another which in turn ramps up the Pac Jet from Systems heading for BC in Canada which sends howling SW maritime winds off the Pac which floods the Nation then on top of that the Chinook kicks in and really modifies it sometimes but either way this is about to come to a screeching halt the next couple weeks and can last for quite some time. There is a large ULL at the H500 LVL starting to take shape in and around the Allution Islands and should start building heights over AK for an extended period of time coupled with a +PNA and a -EPO then we in the East better batten down the hatches and hunker down for the next several weeks and beyond, lol! This image shows the Equatorial Pac and its H500 configuration and we can all see the building heights in and around AK including the -EPO zone so suffice to say things are lookin up finally! As time goes on it looks to lock in with a better Allution Low which can definitely dominate that part of the world for an extended period of time easily so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It doesn't get much better then this.. Yeah a track up into the Great lakes just isn't in the cards this time around IMO but I can be wrong but I think this one either is a Coastal hugger or an inland Cutter or should I dare say a CRV runner as that would be thee most ideal run as then we would all get some kind of wrap around and the second part of a synoptic system for us always involves a bout of LE on a WNW or NW flow usually. Lets just hope some other model is also on board cause if we just have the GFS we're in trouble. Even the Canadian would suffice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Get's pushed SE which is my biggest worry lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yeah cause there's a massive AF pressing against it from the NW, lol! The Snow area of this event, wherever it will be, is gonna be in all out glory with both S++ and Winds gusting over 40MPH verbatim if this happens the B work will get introduced in some areas of the NE but I still hope SNE gets rain, cruel of me oh well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 There's really not much time if ya really think about it, lol, Im trying to be optimistic as possible, lol, but if next Wed-Thurs CF works out then we're 2 days away from a blockbuster, if any of this even happens! We at least need another global on out side this way we know at least some other piece of guidance also sees the potential and not just the GFS, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: There's really not much time if ya really think about it, lol, Im trying to be optimistic as possible, lol, but if next Wed-Thurs CF works out then we're 2 days away from a blockbuster, if any of this even happens! We at least need another global on out side this way we know at least some other piece of guidance also sees the potential and not just the GFS, lol! How about the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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