Upstate/Eastern New York

[BuffaloWeather]

4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

I guess not all websites are available..

 

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[BuffaloWeather]

Can't even see the indices. 

[wolfie09]

2" here with heavy snow..

On my way back from Oswego I could hardly see the road .

[BuffaloWeather]

Good article on the PV and what it means for our weather 

https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/winter-weather-topics/what-exactly-is-the-polar-vortex-credit-the-weather-channel

[BuffaloWeather]

The GEM has a major LES event Jan 2nd-4th. All models showing different scenarios for next week. 

[BuffaloWeather]

KBUF mentions at end of discussion.

The second shortwave will near our region late in the period. There
may be a little rain/snow developing ahead of the trough and still
within the vicinity of milder air aloft. This trough and much colder
air is likely to drop across our region Tuesday night and Wednesday
with additional synoptic snow, and lake effect snow developing.

[Thinksnow18]

Well the last 2 runs of the GFS through the next 2 week's is about as terrible as I've witnesses in a long while. If you are staring at grass now chances are by the end of 2 weeks you'll be staring at grass then as well. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Everyone's in panic mode, lol, who cares about 2-3 bad model runs as it can change, and probably will change, but I doubt we're snow free the first 2-3 weeks of January. If that does happen to occur, then that'll be the first time that it's happened in my 15 years of living here. Its gonna snow, its Upstate NY not DC.

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[wolfie09]

Only shot at snow is from the lake, which is obviously extremely micro-climate.. Some will see snow some will not..

Last nights euro was pretty dreadful...

 

[wolfie09]

If it wasn't for November we would be on an historical bad Pace lol

[rochesterdave]

I remember a year that it pretty much was green the entire year, Winter 82-83. Which was also an El Niño year. I think it’s a strong analogue. 

I’m not hopeful at this point. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Everyone's in panic mode, lol, who cares about 2-3 bad model runs as it can change, and probably will change, but I doubt we're snow free the first 2-3 weeks of January. If that does happen to occur, then that'll be the first time that it's happened in my 15 years of living here. Its gonna snow, its Upstate NY not DC.

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I hear ya, but it's getting hard to look at every model run with seasonal cold/dry, followed by warm/rain, rinse and repeat.  Such is climo I suppose...That said, I might be getting at least a little nervous if I was one of the many mets/pros forecasting a cold Jan.  IF the last few long range model runs pan out, most of the U.S. gets to mid Jan with a pretty good positive departure in the books.  

But like you said, the models can certainly change on a dime for the better moving forward.  Maybe the strat warming that's supposed to be happening right now somewhere about 25 miles over Khatanga, Siberia will help us out...

[BuffaloWeather]

Not really sure what to say. The long range models have been the worst I've ever seen them. Even the ensembles have changed drastically from run to run. I've never seen the Indices go from one end of the spectrum to the other like they have the last few weeks. Weak Nino years are Buffalos best snowfall years, and they usually feature above average temperatures in decembers so there is that. February is usually the best month for Weak Nino years. I guess time will tell, but we can't toss January and expect an above average snowfall month. I'm hoping for a quick start to summer, I have a pool I want to use.

[rochesterdave]

Southern Mississippi looking better than WNY! Lol

[Thinksnow18]

If this image doesn't say it all about the models right now...some are showing a tank AO, some show a positive AO and some are in between. The very image of uncertainty.

[wolfie09]

It was only a day or so ago this was a miss to the south on the majority of guidance, now it's cutting inland..

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I hear ya, but it's getting hard to look at every model run with seasonal cold/dry, followed by warm/rain, rinse and repeat.  Such is climo I suppose...That said, I might be getting at least a little nervous if I was one of the many mets/pros forecasting a cold Jan.  IF the last few long range model runs pan out, most of the U.S. gets to mid Jan with a pretty good positive departure in the books.  
But like you said, the models can certainly change on a dime for the better moving forward.  Maybe the strat warming that's supposed to be happening right now somewhere about 25 miles over Khatanga, Siberia will help us out...

Yeah, too bad the Strat warm has a 2-3 week lag, lol, so no matter how we work it out, we're screwed until mid January, lol.

Im still riding that 02-03 analog cause it's still right on, but if it doesnt change within the next week going into the new year then something's amiss, so we'll see what happens in a week or so.

The pattern has to settle doan, simple as that. The models are all over the place and have been and they will continue to be until one of the driving forces of the pattern takes over and trumps everything else cause the MJO should begin to collapse and I'd imagine the Pac will take over along with the EPO. If we get any sort of -NAO this year, were in trouble as we'll be watching storms traverse the Gulf coast states and right off the SE coast and then OTS. I'm rooting for a neutral to slightly positive NAO cause the storm track is gonna already be across the SE anyway. A -NAO would kill us, but there would be quite a few smiling faces across the Mid Atlantic region that's for damn sure, lol.

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[wolfie09]

There goes my snowpack..

[wolfie09]

OUCH

[rochesterdave]

Out to 15 days and it looks just as bad.  Absolutely disgusting. All of December and now at least the first half of Jan. That’s 50% of meteorological winter folks. Wow! Something has got to give? 

[DeltaT13]

Just now, rochesterdave said:

Out to 15 days and it looks just as bad.  Absolutely disgusting. All of December and now at least the first half of Jan. That’s 50% of meteorological winter folks. Wow! Something has got to give? 

Sadly, something doesnt necessarily have to give.  Seems like about every 5 years or so we have a winter without any real winter.   We all know just 5 years ago we had a year where Buffalo had less than 40 inches total on the season.  Rochester won the golden snowball that year with less than 70 inches on the season.  We are somewhat overdue for a dud winter as we had 4 pretty solid years in a row here.  It figures this is the year I plan the most ski trips into the Northeast.  So disheartening.  I'm thinking of starting up some yard projects (running power out to the shed) to at least make use of this garbage winter.  

[BuffaloWeather]

We've yet to have any arctic air at all in Upstate. The PV, Pacific, and MJO control the cold air for our region. All 3 are not going our favor right now. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Sadly, something doesnt necessarily have to give.  Seems like about every 5 years or so we have a winter without any real winter.   We all know just 5 years ago we had a year where Buffalo had less than 40 inches total on the season.  Rochester won the golden snowball that year with less than 70 inches on the season.  We are somewhat overdue for a dud winter as we had 4 pretty solid years in a row here.  It figures this is the year I plan the most ski trips into the Northeast.  So disheartening.  I'm thinking of starting up some yard projects (running power out to the shed) to at least make use of this garbage winter.  

I close on Jan 17th so hopefully its 50 and sunny

[wolfie09]

I guess the only thing we can hope for is a trend east for the new years eve event..

Or tranfer energy a little quicker, farther south..

[BuffaloWeather]

The meltdown in the New England section is going to be epic, I'll be getting my popcorn. 

[wolfie09]

Always 240 hours out lol

Chasing ghost..

[BuffaloWeather]

Lake Erie is 2 degs above normal for the date and will likely see that increase the next few days. As long as the lakes stay warm one event can change everything. Just need some cold air which won't be found for at least a few weeks. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'll laugh my arse off if all of a sudden the models get a clue as to what's really going on with the atmosphere, and its starts showing what we all want it to show, constant snow and cold but not too cold, lol!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'm not saying it's going to change but when I see all models acting this erratically run after run then I know somethings amiss and they'll catch on eventually. If they all start showing warmth and rain throughout all model runs then I'd start to worry, lol, but not until then.

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[TugHillMatt]

Well they have been pretty on par with the cutters...once they're within a week, the track has been pretty consistent. Don't you wish they'd be just as accurate with snowstorms?