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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Kind of sad when your the thee biggest Super Power on the planet and we have to rely on a European model for an accurate forecast, lol, sad I tell ya.  I've saved all model runs cause I will go back and see who did the best wrt Track, Temp Profile, Accum, phasing and HP placement as it will be interesting to see who had the right idea first, who fip flopped and which was thee most steady.

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18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GFS had an incremental drop in moisture for most of us. Similar to NAM. We are very much on the NW fringe of this storm. I’m a bit surprised at the bullish NWS forecast. They are definitely siding with a more phased system. 18z has not given a boost to that thinking (yet). 

Even if this thing jogged well SE, almost all of us would still see warning amounts. So there is that. 

This is what the GFS does for every storm.  Euro/Meso models from here on in.

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8 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Tonight's 00Z runs will be the first ones with our system ashore and "fully sampled."  Will be interested to see if any changes show up in 00Z or 12Z upcoming runs.

The makings of our storm are currently crossing the continental divide and just about to drop out of the Rockies for some Lee Side Cyclogenesis.  

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Not the FV3, its been thee most steady model there is so you must be talking about the OG GFS, lol, which has also held serve for a few runs now so........  The Nam won't be helpful; until we're within 24-36 hrs until go time so tomorrow 12Z the Nam should be on point but tonight should put the last nail in the coffin as far as the CMC, GFS and Euro and no one cares about Uncle Ukie anymore.

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I’m a very specialized scientific weather analyst too. Very smart. Just check my avatar. Lol!

Henriettia is pretty well positioned to be in a double lollipop of snow. It’s south enough to get into the stronger synoptic precip and far enough north to benefit from lake enhancement. I’m not sold on the 16-24” most local Mets are calling for. I think a foot or so is a good target (right now). 

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