donsutherland1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: Good summary Don. Looking forward to an ne.wx snowfall contest on this one. I think there will be enough stations in play... Thanks. It’s been a long wait. Enjoy the snowfall and good luck in the contest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Major change from 00z was a faster and more amplified southern shortwave with less confluence ahead over NE. Also the northern stream shortwave kicker did come in a bit faster like the other 12z models..so the storm ended a bit sooner than earlier runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 That storm in California is insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I seriously doubt it would even come close to verifying here. I think its going to be tough to verify anywhere except for coastal locations. I could be wrong but a closed circulation LP would help considerably but I don't see that happening although the NAM does close it off at H700 but H500 closes much later so I don't think its gonna happen but who knows, If I had to venture a guess I'd say Niagara, Monroe and Wayne have the best chance of verifying as the wind has a better chance of gaining speed over the open waters of LO so thats something to think about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I seriously doubt it would even come close to verifying here. I think its going to be tough to verify anywhere except for coastal locations. I could be wrong but a closed circulation LP would help considerably but I don't see that happening although the NAM does close it off at H700 but H500 closes much later so I don't think its gonna happen but who knows, If I had to venture a guess I'd say Niagara, Monroe and Wayne have the best chance of verifying as the wind has a better chance of gaining speed over the open waters of LO so thats something to think about. I'd say anywhere north of the 90 has the better chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That storm in California is insane That's just awesome. Is that the tornado chaser dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Harper is handing Cali an ass whooping, lol and I wish I was right in the middle of it with him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Harper is handing Cali an ass whooping, lol and I wish I was right in the middle of it with him! Ummmm...This could be taken in so many different ways...... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The snowpack being built up in the Sierras should be a big help for agriculture in the Central Valley this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Timmer comes to pulaski like every year chasing lake effect lol Obviously he can branch out to where he needs to go.. Storm chasers was one of the best shows ever made.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Control run followed the OP.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ok, so we've seen a million model runs, there's good consistency, the players are on the field now, about the only thing I can see going wrong...Mike Seidel or Cantore show up in your location. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: Ok, so we've seen a million model runs, there's good consistency, the players are on the field now, about the only thing I can see going wrong...Mike Seidel or Cantore show up in your location. You mean thundersnow and an over the top theatrical production from Cantore, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, TugHillMatt said: You mean thundersnow and an over the top theatrical production from Cantore, right? I think Jim would've had short circuited on-air at Mammoth Mtn. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'd have to go with Cantore, TBH, Siedel is alright but he shoulda stayed indoors cause he wasn't bad on screen as he went in depth sometimes as did Cantore but it seems like those days are over, I also think Jim likes snow just as much as any of us weenies in this thread, lol! Yeah, everything is ready to go, all systems check and I can't for the life of me think of anything that can throw a wrench into this thing except too much of a NW correction and we mix for a bit but that's not likely, I don't think, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You mean thundersnow and an over the top theatrical production from Cantore, right? Actually, more worried about them showing up and we get 7" of rice snow...;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'd have to go with Cantore, TBH, Siedel is alright but he shoulda stayed indoors cause he wasn't bad on screen as he went in depth sometimes as did Cantore but it seems like those days are over, I also think Jim likes snow just as much as any of us weenies in this thread, lol! Yeah, everything is ready to go, all systems check and I can't for the life of me think of anything that can throw a wrench into this thing except too much of a NW correction and we mix for a bit but that's not likely, I don't think, lol! Would be nice to see a 50-100mi NW jog... ;} Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That's what i'm talking about... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: That's what i'm talking about... Surprised they wouldn't extend that red line to along the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ksyr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ksyr Can you post KBUF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That looks the same as this morning, wpc should be updating soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 They are amped, thats for sure..probably to much so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM is 2 MB stronger in Oklahoma. Might be coming north this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Plume average for KROC at 23”. Wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Should be a good NAM run for most of us. edit looks good but faster like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, WxNoob said: Should be a good NAM run for most of us. edit looks good but faster like the euro. Looks like maybe 1-1.25" for south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's almost scary being in the Jacked zone 36hr before go time, No? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18Z NAM cut back a bit on qpf in CNY it looks. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also looks to have light snow in the Finger Lakes and south shore through Monday AM. As a side note I kind of miss those old weather porn NAM bomb runs that would drop a seasons worth of snow in one storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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