OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam is decent overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 That’s a really big forecast for synoptic in western New York. I’d take that in a heartbeat. This storm ruined my move in date, hopefully we don’t get a big storm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Ugh. The NAM continues to squash the best snows to the south of the Tug and North Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: That’s a really big forecast for synoptic in western New York. I’d take that in a heartbeat. This storm ruined my move in date, hopefully we don’t get a big storm next weekend. Those are big numbers to forecast...I'd like to see the 12z run first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Ugh. The NAM continues to squash the best snows to the south of the Tug and North Country. That's always a risk with synoptic east coast systems. CNY is often on the western fringe of the sweet spot. WNY/NNY even moreso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: That's always a risk with synoptic east coast systems. CNY is often on the western fringe of the sweet spot. WNY even moreso. Thanks for the heads up. Even a jog 25 to 50 miles north would make a big difference. Just hoping for no more south jogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Anyone got wind profiles? If its windy enough i could imagine wed get huge drifting over such a wide area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just looking at soundings and different ratio methods id think somewhere in the neighborhood of 12:1. My general go to is cobb 11. These iowa state bufkit derived plots are nice...especially when youre only on a phone and cant use bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, vortmax said: Those are big numbers to forecast...I'd like to see the 12z run first. In fairness that is the GFS output...mike also showed the Euro output and it's 11" at KBUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Don't shoot the messenger, but it would seem like baseline blizzard criteria would easily be met with this system for most of us. I'm not advocating for it per se, but it would be fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Just looking at soundings and different ratio methods id think somewhere in the neighborhood of 12:1. My general go to is cobb 11. These iowa state bufkit derived plots are nice...especially when youre only on a phone and cant use bufkit. Does that seem kinda low? I mean by 18z and especially 0z the temps will be in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm concerned that locations close to the Lake will see lower amounts as all the wind will blow it inland. The map below is pretty close to their 10% max map...so quite aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 BUFs new map also has a huge range at BUF with low end snowfall at 3” and high end at 18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: I'm concerned that locations close to the Lake will see lower amounts as all the wind will blow it inland. The map below is pretty close to their 10% max map...so quite aggressive. You beat me to it! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: You beat me to it! Lol! Yea, but good point about the low range map...big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Does that seem kinda low? I mean by 18z and especially 0z the temps will be in the single digits. Could be. Its always tricky. But a deep area of modest lift at different temperatures is more indicative of smaller agreggates than large dendrites. You end up with a dry but dense snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Could be. Its always tricky. But a deep area of modest lift at different temperatures is more indicative of smaller agreggates than large dendrites. You end up with a dry but dense snow. Makes sense. More grainy due to poor dendrite formation. Im guessing an optimal thermal would be 2m temps in the teens to low 20's??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: Could be. Its always tricky. But a deep area of modest lift at different temperatures is more indicative of smaller agreggates than large dendrites. You end up with a dry but dense snow. I agree. Synoptic is usually in the lower ranges. It’s lake effect that can be 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Makes sense. More grainy due to poor dendrite formation. Gotta love sand snow! Lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Gotta love sand snow! Lol! The wind will play a role in breaking up larger dendrites as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 You can see weak lift through the column area here with a relative max near -8c/800mb. Its where methods like max t in profile and kuchera fall short. They only take into account temperatures, not rh or omega. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Its not quite sand lol. I think that will be the case more in CNE where you have more defined max lift at warmer 700mb temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z GFS running, NAM out. NAM showing LE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is north, brings mixing potential up to state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is north, brings mixing potential up to state line. NAM same time frame: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Seems the primary just stops and xfers East. Is that realistic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Getting out of the GFS wheelhouse as we get closer to the storm - expect it to continue to wobble. Euro/NAM #rideordie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Seems the primary just stops and xfers East. Is that realistic? That happens 95% of the time with these types of lows. Tough to get a miller A app runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is north, brings mixing potential up to state line. Yeah then it gets shunted east. The central canada shortwave up near nw ontario on that image comes in faster than the gfs at 00z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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