CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is this the first big battle between the new American kid, the FV3, and the Euro? If the Euro just moved NW on the 6Z run, did our boy just deliver a body blow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sure did as Ive been actually following it cause this has been the second serious one since the one in November and it did the same in November but its not scored yet against the other major models cause its not operational yet! Thats perhaps why the NWS is following its every move even their 4"-8"-12" probability maps are following it too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Don't know where all the dough came from for such a big update to the GFS but if that's what we have to look forward to then woooo hoooo finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Only problem about the fv3 is i dont but this lol All guidance brings this over snj or the delmarva.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Reg GFS is also a Major event but nothing epic but 10/1 totals arent bad! GFS hates New England too, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z euro was mostly rain for nj, which is good for us, must of bumped north at least some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Have no clue Wolfie as this will be a great case study when its all said and done to look back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I posted the 06Z EURO up there somewhere but you have it anyway right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That little MIN over my area is a glitch, irks the shit out me haha Does it every storm.. 13k model that thinks it's 3 k.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 yeah, but i've seen a p-type map on another board and its a good deal warmer for the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro took the ukmet to the woodshed with this one lol We’re not home yet...but yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Only goes up till sunday morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I just had the Weather Channel on and they seem to be leaning heavily on the Euro. Almost seems like they want heavy snow to fall on Boston. Cantore mentioned 40 inches for Nashua, NH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CNY_WX said: I just had the Weather Channel on and they seem to be leaning heavily on the Euro. Almost seems like they want heavy snow to fall on Boston. Cantore mentioned 40 inches for Nashua, NH! They especially, and the media in general, like the major cities to get walloped...ups the hysteria for ratings... Big snowfalls in flyover country...meh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We need one more bump north to get wny more in and boston more out haha.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: 10 to 1...if 15 or 20 to one those numbers go up by 1 1/2 or 2. So KBUF goes from 9" to 13.5 or 18 and KSYR goes to 12" to 18 or 24". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: 10 to 1...if 15 or 20 to one those numbers go up by 1 1/2 or 2. So KBUF goes from 9" to 13.5 or 18 and KSYR goes to 12" to 18 or 24". Kuchera map with Euro should look special. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'm really starting to like that FV3 new upgraded GFS as it looks like a solid model both in resolution and accuracy but I haven't been watching it as much to see how it has done with past events so now I will make a folder of this weekends and future storms for posterity, nice! Wanna see how it does! Ty, Its a slight improvement over the current gfs but it still lags the ecmwf and ukmet significantly in verification score. Its also significantly cold biased through much of the lower trop. Its not operational yet so they can still make tweaks (once the govt reopens, of course). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Ty, Its a slight improvement over the current gfs but it still lags the ecmwf and ukmet significantly in verification score. Its also significantly cold biased through much of the lower trop. Its not operational yet so they can still make tweaks (once the govt reopens, of course). Question is, how well is it doing for this storm? 12z should clear the air a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We'll see how the 12z disc goes: Based on the latest available trends and guidance, a solution toward the 12Z ECENS mean will be preferred across the Western U.S. and offshore the West Coast after 36 hours, with a solution toward a compromise of the 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECENS mean and 00Z GEFS mean across the Eastern U.S. after 36 hours. The incorporation of the GEFS mean will be out of respect for the more progressive trends at least seen out of the NAM/GFS solution over the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, vortmax said: Question is, how well is it doing for this storm? 12z should clear the air a bit. Yeah storm-specific verification would be great, but tough to do obviously. I dont have access to the 06z ecwmf since jb doesnt have it on wxbell but i did notice the 00z was faster and the northern stream kicker dropped in just a touch slower...resulting in a slight improvement. Also the biggest difference between the 00/06z gfs fv3 and the 00z ecmwf appears to be the amount of confluence over the ne. 500 heights are 15 to 20 m lower on the ecmwf, forcing the farther south track and earlier redevelopment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Yeah storm-specific verification would be great, but tough to do obviously. I dont have access to the 06z ecwmf since jb doesnt have it on wxbell but i did notice the 00z was faster and the northern stream kicker dropped in just a touch slower...resulting in a slight improvement. Also the biggest difference between the 00/06z gfs fv3 and the 00z ecmwf appears to be the amount of confluence over the ne. 500 heights are 15 to 20 m lower on the ecmwf, forcing the farther south track and earlier redevelopment. I think we will know more as the storm jumps the Rockies later tonight early tomorrow. The confluence isn't our friend ATM but it also is keeping the storm from just blowing out to sea...is this almost becoming a Miller B type storm? Initial low to a transfer along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looking STRONG boys! I like the tick back. It was getting a little to close for comfort yesterday and nerves were finally freying. Models all seem to have a good handle except UKmet. There is still time for weirdness, but next couple days will be fun!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Lol trying to upload the ECMWF for the 27th...shows an absolute monster blovk and PV right over the upper great lakes...BW has been saying for days to watch that timeframe and truth be told I'm starting to salivate a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I think we will know more as the storm jumps the Rockies later tonight early tomorrow. The confluence isn't our friend ATM but it also is keeping the storm from just blowing out to sea...is this almost becoming a Miller B type storm? Initial low to a transfer along the coast? I wouldnt call it that since there isnt mid level closure. The trough is open from 700 and upward across the whole ne. Redevelopment comes via confluence. The 500 vort itself doesnt go south of Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: I wouldnt call it that since there isnt mid level closure. The trough is open from 700 and upward across the whole ne. Redevelopment comes via confluence. The 500 vort itself doesnt go south of Long Island. Got it. I was confused with what looked to be redevelopment. TY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam a little amped up at 996mb compared to 1000 mb on the 0z/6z at the same time frame, precip came in a little quicker as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now