Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 And check out the follow on system for mid next week. Looking much more wintry than a 60 degree rainout. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The GFS run as a very similar LP track next Tues - Thu as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Syrmax said: And check out the follow on system for mid next week. Looking much more wintry than a 60 degree rainout. Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Back to where we were with the FV3. Lots of rain downstate. It pleases me (with evil intonations) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well I can breathe for another 6 hours. It sounds like a cheesy excuse but that 0z run really did seem to have some convective feedback issues. I'm a nervous wreck with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Ukmet is still so much slower then other guidance, allowing it to be pushed east before gaining a ton of lattitude.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Model Synopsis from elsewhere. GFS = Toss. ICON = Mostly Toss. FV3 = Toss. CMC= Mostly Toss. Ukie = BUY BUY BUY (Best model evah). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Ukmet is still so much slower then other guidance, allowing it to be pushed east before gaining a ton of lattitude.. 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This is the farthest south model guys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 There is a real trend to not allow any phase with the chunk of the pv over the ov...which makes this basically a southern stream system running into an east-west oriented pv "wall"...so naturally there is a trend towards coastal redevelopment. It probably decreases the chance of anyhing particularly historic for western and central ny...but still a very good snowstorm is likely i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 In other news: SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BUFFALO NY 1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 NYC037-051-055-073-117-121-161701- /O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0001.190116T1638Z-190116T1730Z/ 1138 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019 Genesee County-Livingston County-Monroe County-Orleans County-Wayne County-Wyoming County- The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Northwestern Wayne County in western New York... Northeastern Wyoming County in western New York... Northwestern Livingston County in western New York... Southeastern Orleans County in western New York... Monroe County in western New York... Genesee County in western New York... * Until 1230 PM EST. * At 1138 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from near Hilton to near Pembroke, moving southeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar and webcams. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes the following highways... Interstate 390 between exits 11 and 12. Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 46. Locations impacted include... Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Chili, Batavia, Brockport, East Rochester, Albion, Hilton and Webster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 accuweather has rochester at 6-12" only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, katodog said: accuweather has rochester at 6-12" only Accuweather is a joke. I would trust them for a 4 hour forecast let alone a 4 day forecast for a complex synoptic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katodog Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: do these maps show the lake enhancement ? i am always confused by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: HA! Best GFS run yet. You can’t make this up. I need more Valium We're all good with that run just don't get that taint any closer to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 FV3 crushes WNY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, katodog said: do these maps show the lake enhancement ? i am always confused by that. They may try but the answer is no lol Meso-guidance will lead the way as we get closer.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Why didn't anybody tell me it's like a blizzard outside haha 1" so far today.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: FV3 crushes WNY Any images? Sorry the site I use for FV3 is only out to hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Getting a little concerned that us far WNY peeps might be fringed. Not worried about a complete whiff yet, but more like every single county in BUF's CWA is lit up pink under WS warnings, while northern Erie and Niagara counties are blue balled under WW advisories. At any rate, I still don't think confidence for any particular area should be too high until the 0Z runs tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, katodog said: accuweather has rochester at 6-12" only With the current trend that actually seems pretty plausible and not the worst. 6 would be disappointing, 12 would be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: FV3 crushes WNY It certainly does and it has slowed down by a good 12 hours or so. It's a pretty big outlier at this point though so I can't cherry pick that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 One other quick thing I noticed perusing the 12Z runs so far. The lake effect potential through at least the next 7 days looks pretty tame. Not what I was expecting with the cold dropping in. But on the flip side the synoptic stays active, so that's a good trade-off. Maybe too many highs and lows ripping through during this period to allow the lake effect machine to kick in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Gfs is about 50 miles ene at this tme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: One other quick thing I noticed perusing the 12Z runs so far. The lake effect potential through at least the next 7 days looks pretty tame. Not what I was expecting with the cold dropping in. But on the flip side the synoptic stays active, so that's a good trade-off. Maybe too many highs and lows ripping through during this period to allow the lake effect machine to kick in. Looks like a lot of bone dry anticyclonic air to me. Just crushing inversions and no moisture to work with. Right behind these systems will get a little blast but nothing sustained. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now