lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 06z GFS looks pretty similar too 00z maybe just a slight tick N and W but not much. Low still weaker and elongated. Think this may be a trend of a weaker and less phased storm starting to show between 00z and 06z model runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 FV3 so far out to 96 amped more phasing for sure and not so much of a pos tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah quite a shift south on the models, Euro shows a dramatic shift to the south taking heavy snow to most of PA, in fact perilously too close for NW WNY where it's looking like 3 or 4 inches only. Now I don't believe that as even the AFD this morning says there will be considerable help from LO Buffalo north. A lot of runs yet but definitely a change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So juiced up WOW, waiting on run as this model comes in slower as its still in Beta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 We should start looking more closely into guidance come Thursday as this thing is still offshore. I'm not that concerned yet but come tomorrow nights 00Z Fri we should start to close in on a solution for sure I would think. 06Z GFS looks spectacular but who cares, lol but it looks ideal for at least a 12-18" swath right through the state but like I said lots of time yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Definitely looks more likely with regards to snow amounts but I'd take this in a heart beat, loil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 FV3 still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Definitely looks more likely with regards to snow amounts but I'd take this in a heart beat, loil! What these models don't do well with is the mesoscale optics. There will be considerable help from the lakes with a storm track such as this. I think the high res NAM tomorrow will start to get into its range that shows us the synoptic and mesoscale details much clearer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 As far as I can tell the Globals have got this thing and I can't imagine anything too drastic occurring in the next 2-3 days to change that but thats just me. Check this out Thats every model; we look at except the meso's, too early obviously but they are all in the same general vicinity with their SLP's so I don't see an issue at all with 3 days till start time as the globals are well within range for this thing as we've been tracking it for 10 days now, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Definitely don't like this look, lol, thank God its the 12K NAM at 84hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This is still a very nice system on the FV3 at least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: IDK about anyone else but I feel better that the EURO ticked South by 50-75 miles but KBUF seems worrisome that the heaviest precip should fall in PA so we'll see I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just re-read the AFD this morning. Says wind vector will almost be due north at a 20 vector on Saturday night and Sunday. They do say SIGNIFICANT lake enhancement for all areas south of lake Ontario. They also say it should still be a plowable snow. That last part doesn't exactly evoke confidence as plows come out when there's only 3". Losing a little confidence in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If the Northern Stream energy would just slow down a bit for an earlier phase we'd get a closed bomb that heads ENE but without the phase it'll head from East to West much further South of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Man I'm gaining confidence, lol! Still loads of time left! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon still looks good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 look at the ibm model for boston lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6z Euro at Hr90 looks similar to 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z Euro at Hr90 looks similar to 0z.. Wow that low is really far south...if that moves more easterly than NE this may become a non event altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It would be headin NE just like 0z did, which went over NJ.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 c'mon...I literally just booked an additional flight and hotel for Saturday and now it looks like nothing more than a nuisance snowfall for us... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z vs 0z Weaker and east but not by a ton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: 12z vs 0z Weaker and east but not by a ton.. High N of the Dakotas is weaker too but the storm is weaker too thus being a little east. If we can get a foot from this it’d be a huge success in my eyes but I’m starting to doubt that now. Think this is gonna be a New England special... what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z Euro at Hr90 looks similar to 0z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Look at 0z dave.. LP in the exact same spot.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Now with that being said, if confluence is stronger then modeled Fuhgeddaboudit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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