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Upstate/Eastern New York


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What is up with the UKMET?  If it doesn't cave at 00Z, then I'd start to wonder what the deal is with it! Its completely on its own and in all seriousness, that concerns me, cause its not like its a few miles off but instead it is practically dry here and no one is even paying attention to it, lol!  If it scores a coup, words can't even express the rage I'd have building inside me!

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UKMET at 12Z had a positively tilted trough with the Southern stream energy dragging its heels big time thats why its so far off from the other globals so its really a timing issue with the UKMET and I think , once the SW is sampled properly as it enters the West coast, it'll correct itself and head towards the other models.  If its been right the whole time, then perhaps we'll see the others start the trend SE, so I guess we really have to wait until this SW enters the lower 48.

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:wub:
MtyhX7N.gif&key=a4f65a6b40f1429c476d44ba9f84661bf309f55545712229526a0357bf2b8478


That would be a fitting send off to our lake effect season if it was to verify. Lake will be down to 32 and starting to freeze by end of next week. Hopefully she can make it that long! Between the synoptic systems and the lake effect potential along with the sustained cold temps we could be looking at a snow pack area wide we haven’t seen around here for quite some years.


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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


That would be a fitting send off to our lake effect season if it was to verify. Lake will be down to 32 and starting to freeze by end of next week. Hopefully she can make it that long! Between the synoptic systems and the lake effect potential along with the sustained cold temps we could be looking at a snow pack area wide we haven’t seen around here for quite some years.


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That would likely be feet of snow if it came to fruition. Those are 6 hour time stamps with 1-3" per hour rates. 

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Lots and Lots of professionals out there will be eating crow come this weekend if this SLP starts to head the other way and if it wants to head that way it better start soon.  There are already ppl out in droves attacking the supermarkets throughout the area like the apocalypse is coming or something, lol!  Some are worried about mixing and nobody's worried about cirrus clouds with the dim Sun shining through because of the frigid temps that'll be around, yuck, static dry and cold, please God forbid!

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Just now, tim123 said:

Yes I saw him earlier tonite on fb. I mentioned ratios of 20 to 1. He didn't disagree. Also mentioned kuchera snow map from euro. Said it's scary. Didn't say snow amounts on it just said it has his attention 

Is this happens, it would likely be the largest synoptic storm we've ever seen together in our forum. With temps in the single digits and 40 mph+ winds. 

snku_acc.us_ne.png

 

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I'm seriously worried about the Ukie and I don't know why but I seriously am as its not l;ike the GEM or the NavGem, its the second best model out there as was stated earlier and it's on its own against 5 other models.  If it even takes a step towards the NW with tonight's 00Z suite then I will be much more confident of at least a high impact event but until that happens, I'll be worried.

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