tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Does the control run give snow or precip outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Good afd this morning from buffalo. Talking about lake enhanced snow in Rochester. Major winter storm and impossible travel. Ratios on Sunday 25 to 1. Strong wording in the write up so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Impacts sat thru Monday. Lake snow sunday night thru Monday n nw flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FWIW 6z at 228 has 18" at KBUF and 19" at KSYR...at 10 to 1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Tim I love your excitement but beware we're still 5 days away from first feeling the effects of this system! I know I've been saying it's not gonna happen but it can and it might as we seen with the 00Z runs that most other globals ticked SE, but the good ol EURO went NW, lol. I actually love the fact that the EURO did that as it makes it more interesting and keeps us right in the center of the cone. As days pass the cone should get smaller but my BIGGEST concern with these crazy totals is the progressiveness of the event as it still doesn't close off at the H700 LVL and thats a BIG problem! Has anyone seen a 2' event with a SWFE, I haven't and I've been here for 15yrs, lol, so I guess we'll see as we get closer to the event if she closes off, if not its a general 8-12" snowfall area wide which isn't nothing to sneeze at but just not the clown maps the Euro is throwing out. Just my 2 cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 For Friday event.. A flat southern stream shortwave will support a relatively weak surface storm that will track from the Upper Ohio Valley across (or just south) of our forecast area Thursday night. For what its worth...will use a blend of the ECMWF and SREF mean for the track of the system. Either way you slice it...our forecast area will be cold enough aloft for all of the associated pcpn to be in the form of snow. As we progress through the night...light to occasionally moderate snow will spread across the entire region. The main forcing for the snowfall will be a weakly coupled H25 jet...with a 110kt arctic jet over Quebec and a more impressive 140kt sub tropical jet over the Deep South. While liquid equivalent amounts will remain UNDER a quarter inch...the microphysics will be favorable for snowfall that could average 2 to 4 inches. Fair deep lift will be in place...which will include a 5k foot deep dendritic growth area. Point soundings also suggest an 8k foot deep forecast isothermal layer around -5c...which should promote snow growth through accretion. That being said...this snowfall will be FAR from crippling... but it will likely be enough to have an impact throughout the region. Its not out of the question that winter wx advisories may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 What I miss? Lol I gotta agree with Freak, unfortunately. These wave runners don’t drop 3 feet of snow. LO will help- a lot, especially if the storm is a tic SE. A foot still looks good for all. Oh, and yes, the GEM caved. Ukmet doing weirdo stuff. This is when JD’s line model-maps are useful. Take the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 From what I'm cleaning this isn't just a wave runner, the phasing the EURO is showing exploded this storm and really enhances rates with lake enhancement from Lake Ontario. I remember a very similar storm in January 2005 that dumped 18" in NT where I was living at the time. Lots of lake enhancement and high ratios. Very similar to me at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Euro doesn't show a wave runner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS para is Farther east then all euro guidance but yet still delivers near 1.5" liquid.. About .10 is from the CF..Misses us to the south with Fridays system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 No model closes off the H700, how hard is that to understand? Doesn't sound hard to me, too progressive yeah LO will help. Bone dry Arctic air doesn't provide moisture at all and LO woin't suffice and the snow growth will be horrific like pea's, sorry but factual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 NWS doesn't seem to be concerned 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 While it can be too warm to snow, it cannot be too cold to snow. ... It is true, however, that most heavy snowfalls occur when there is relatively warm air near the ground—typically -9 degrees Celsius (15 degrees Fahrenheit) or warmer—since warmer air can hold more water vapor. When it gets below 15F its hard for the Atmosphere to hold as much Water Vapor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: NWS doesn't seem to be concerned Yes they are enthusiastic, which is quite surprising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'll take my chances with that kind of over running which by itself can dump impressive totals.. We also have strong HP slowly retreating to our north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Forecast for a high of 16 sat. 5 sat night and 11 Sunday.. That's actually pretty good improvement..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yes a lot better too for snow growth to occur too as we don't want it in the single digits, once she passes the Arctic Plunge then we do it again and hopefully again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Do you know every time a potential system enters the pic, the first thing I do is block Syrmax, RLMAO, cause hes the biggest debbie downer there is and I dont want any negative posts from here on in, lol! Then as soon as it passes, I unblock him! Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Dont be a f*cking weenie. It's not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS EURO are chock full of opportunities the next 10 days and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Dont be a f*cking weenie. It's not a good look. Completely joking bro! Don't even know how to block someone, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Computer illiterate for sure! Kids today amaze me but Im on OG so...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Completely joking bro! Don't even know how to block someone, lol! I thought you were gonna go postal on me! I just woke up...xoxo. is it snowing yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I just waked and baked so I'm chillin, no snow yet but there may be a few flurries around tday, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hope no children are reading, lol! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nice, lots of wiggle room! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I just saw Wolfies Euro parade. Wow. Probably over baked but wow. Agree with LES...no closed h700 so it seems too juicy. But we'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Dam. That high probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Same look as the euro, eventually it drops down to the south shore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Some of these euro ens members are sick..I didn't see any with less then 6".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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