wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 KBGM Things could then get very interesting Saturday afternoon, Sunday and Sunday night as a potential winter storm approaches the area. Guidance has come into better agreement that upper level energy will emerge across the southern Plains/Texas panhandle region Friday evening; with a surface low redeveloping in the lee of the Rockies likely over Oklahoma. This system looks to have ample moisture associated with it as it tracks across the US. There looks to be some phasing with a northern stream disturbance...but the details such as exact track and precipitation amounts remains uncertain. Felt confident enough to bump PoPs up to high end likely Saturday evening into Sunday. Current guidance would suggest snow breaks out from SW to NE across our forecast late in the day Saturday as strong isentropic lift develops, and moisture is forced up and over the low level cold dome of air already in place. Overall the consensus is for a strengthening surface low to pass by to our south, across the Mid-Atlantic, and perhaps turn the corner, moving along the eastern sea board. Ensemble means and model consensus, show a good chance for average QPF amounts around three-quarters of an inch Saturday afternoon through Sunday night...with WPC ranging from about 0.50" NW to 1.25" SE of liquid. Its too early to pinpoint any specific, possible snow amounts, and there is even some potential for a wintry mix across portions of NE PA, depending on the track of the low. Snow ratios could be high in parts of the area with this type of set up...but again we will have to wait and see how this plays out. This period will certainly need to be watched very closely though as the potential for a plowable snowfall is increasing for much of our forecast area. Temperatures are tricky and will depend on where the above mentioned storm system tracks. It does look to be trending colder, with below average temperatures likely over the weekend and into early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Its a big timing issue right now between the interaction of both streams and when they actually phase. Its obvious the GGEM is way out ahead of the main trough, or the Northern steam eenergy with the Southern energy as it phases early hence the Track through CNY but the other globals seem to be phasing a bit late as a couple of the models have a positively tilted trough as it rolls through and we all know what would happen if that occurred so a lot is still on the table from this far out but were quickly closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ukmet is one model well SE of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Why is there such a meltdown in the other threads? I think everyone is still in this including the I95 Corridor even DC can get clobbered so if there is a meltdown then their straight children, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Big time shift on UK, interesting, nonetheless a nice hit. We have to remember ratios should be maximized with temps in the teens to low 20's so 20/1 is definitely not out of the question but it will have the consistency of styrofoam, lol, but even with .75" of liq eq would eq close to 15", lol, so either way we should see at the least a plowable snowfall but it could be much much more if everything comes together just right and the timing has to be perfect so its a lot to ask, so I stay optimistically cautious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Looks promising this week. But it's still Monday...everything still on the table. By Wed 12z it'll be time to get more excited, or not. I'd stay away from the off hour gfs runs to preserve some semblance of sanity the next few days.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 is a bomb and if it comes close to being right, we will all be rejoicing, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Seen this posted on another board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Cuse comes really close to mixing, actually I think it does mix for a time but if its more than 1hr I'd be surprised! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Seen this posted on another board.. Thats 10/1 too, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Cuse comes really close to mixing, actually I think it does mix for a time but if its more than 1hr I'd be surprised! Agree. FV3 looks like taint for a bit at least. It's also a big rainout for SNE. Won't help calm the nerves there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This was the NAV-GEM at 06Z and if that was the 12Z that you showed then I think we may be in a bit of trouble as I think we may start to se a NW trend as models pick up on an earlier phase like the FV3 did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 So I've been a lurker here for years and am a huge fan of snow...however this weekend is especially interesting to me as I have a 6am flight to catch on sunday. I've never had a flight delayed or canceled because of snow in buffalo but it looks like this storm has the ability to make that happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The NAV-GEM has a huge SE bias and I'm waiting on the 12Z from tidbits but if thats the 12Z that you showed, then like I said we may be seeing a NW shift come 12Z from the EURO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Luke_Mages said: So I've been a lurker here for years and am a huge fan of snow...however this weekend is especially interesting to me as I have a 6am flight to catch on sunday. I've never had a flight delayed or canceled because of snow in buffalo but it looks like this storm has the ability to make that happen. I'd keep abreast of the situation closely but I'm sure you'll be contacted if things change because of inclement weather. Either way it looks like something is coming, exactly what is the million dollar question but a plowable snow seems most probable attm but that can change in 6 hrs, lol. By wed we should have a much better idea on the situation as will most local channels as well so you should be well informed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Take it and run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro should be the same as it’s been for last few runs. Pretty stable set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Look at this chunk of Arctic Air that moves right over the North Pole and heads right for us, WOW! Thats is dangerously cold air for sure and it shouldn't modify much with the glacier we build the week leading up to the outbreak! A chunk already came through 2 days previous but that's the whole kit and kaboodle that drops down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 43 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Cuse comes really close to mixing, actually I think it does mix for a time but if its more than 1hr I'd be surprised! Yeah that's too close for us in Otsego County. We want to put the low right over New York Harbor then out across LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, cny rider said: Yeah that's too close for us in Otsego County. We want to put the low right over New York Harbor then out across LI. We're quite fine with that positioning! With that, it will likely change as models resolve. Anyone have the 12z EC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Still running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 11F in Brewerton while 40 miles East in Utica its 36, wow, just to the West the snow would be S++ for sure! I know its gonna change but man its nice to look at! 4F in Watertown while 20 miles East in Old Forge its 32, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Euro is a little bit south.. Couple inches come from friday's event, for some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 For kicks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Lots of mixing S&E of here thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: For kicks.. Remarkably steady. A bit colder. Good run. I’m gonna be so burnt after this week. My online time is going through the roof. Not much work getting done at the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Last 2 runs with ratios.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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