wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 In 2019, as a result of the recent tenfold increase in computing power, an upgrade to the GFS model is planned that will increase its horizontal resolution to 9 km and 128 layers out to 16 days, compared to the current run of 13 km and 64 layers out to 10 days. Long-term plans are for the GFS to receive a new core with dynamic scaling that uses the finite volume method. The resulting model, being developed under the name FV3, will retain the GFS moniker.[9] The proposal comes after eight years of testing a potential replacement model, the flow-following, finite-volume icosahedral model; the FIM proved to be slower and not appreciably more accurate than the GFS. Initial testing of the FV3 showed promise, outperforming the Integrated Forecast System in terms of hurricane tracks during the 2017 hurricane season (the IFS had been the most accurate operational model in predicting the paths). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3-GFS H850 vort I expect with subsequent runs that it gets much more tighter than it is even though its a huge hit this way but imagine if it gets tighter, WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 A nice hit but I expect an uptick in snow amounts in future runs as the H850 gets better organized. The temp in RH goes from 52F to 18F in 6 hrs with Super heavy Snow. Nothing like living on the coast when one of these come along. Experienced Many for 3 decades but I got sick of watching KSYR with constant snow back then so I vowed to move Upstate and here I am. I do miss those Nor'Easters as they are few and far between up here but LE in between is the best part and when we are blessed with a synoptic system, we get the best of both worlds! This upcoming event, if it comes to fruition, won't have as much LE with it or after it because of its progressive nature but theres another synoptic event on its tail so.... Snow totals 10:1 but it'll be more like 15-20:1" so an inch should yield close to 1.5' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Extended version of the ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This doesn't look all that good as far as H700 is concerned as it closes off to our North which isn't good for the transport of moisture off the Atlantic! It needs to close off to our Sor S&E but not to our North as that would just cut off or even dry slot us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Extended version of the ukmet. Weird? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Eventually the models going to hit confluence, I'm guessing it took the UK to cny before shunted east lol Or a transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Look where the NAV-GEM has it at 18Z Sat. Just waiting to wreak havoc on the NE, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Eventually the models going to hit confluence, I'm guessing it took the UK to cny before shunted east lol Or a transfer.. Has to be a transfer but an ugly one for sure, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Hey Matt, If I were you Id be watching out for Tomorrow into Wednesday as you may in fact receive some serious gravy this week before all the real fun begins later in the week. I think you have a serious chance of seeing close to 6-8" before Friday even rolls around as that's when our next few inches is forecasted to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I mean just look at the difference between the GFS and the FV3 GFS 168 precip tot 168 FV3 in my mind there is absolutely NO reason to ever look at the GFS again if the FV3 is gonna be operational coming later this yr so whats the point, dump it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 RLMAO but can anyone imagine if the CMC scores a coup, lol! Where's the closest bridge in CNY?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 The CMC should cave at 12Z while the King holds serve and I expect the Reg GFS to come back to reality, lol! Funny thing is even with all the rain at the onset we still seem to manage to get to 8", lol, but I'd imagine a little more due to ratios! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 We're all in for a substantial storm come this weekend, but it can, in fact, become epic if it completely phases into a complete closed off bomb over SNE and not the strubg out mess it is now so we'll see. Can anyone imagine a complete miss at this juncture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 They must have seen the euro weeklies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 First event , cold front wed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: They must have seen the euro weeklies Mike was adamant. I think this next 6 to 8 weeks has the chance to be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: The CMC should cave at 12Z while the King holds serve and I expect the Reg GFS to come back to reality, lol! Funny thing is even with all the rain at the onset we still seem to manage to get to 8", lol, but I'd imagine a little more due to ratios! Someone in Toronto or Kingston is manipulating the model! lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 What we want is a bigger, earlier phase to keep this thing from suppressing. Having a weaker first system would also be helpful. Models still in good agreement for this early! Everything looks about as good as you could hope for. 12z’s rolling. Just another 20 of these to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 German is similar to the gfs para.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Look at the difference of the Hp in the last 2 runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Jesus! That Canadian is persistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 With ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ggem is rain to snow..Goes right over my house lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Whenever the ‘other’ forum they get a run they don’t like, the next post will always have the term ‘convective feedback’ in it. It’s like clockwork. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nice run from the GFS as it looks just like last nights EURO as well as the German and the UKMET but the GGEM is still on its own but consistent. I doubt it scores a coup but ya never know but even if the front end is rain the Canadian with ratios would still drop close to a foot here so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Tried posting a Gif but no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nothing to block this anymore..At least as it stands now.. We just need perfectly timed phase lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Nothing to block this anymore..At least as it stands now.. We just need perfectly timed phase lol It has definitely lost the banana shape. FV3 a huge hit for WNY. The Canadian might be on to something. We are still looking good. I’m gonna get some sick pleasure out of the NE forum meltdown. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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