Syrmax Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: It's the start of a trend and a push towards the euro of it being more S and E which obviously sucks for here. One data point is not a trend. Not saying one won't develop but one run...no. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Honestly, freaking about one run is silly. Especially 18z. This is gonna back and forth. I’m guilty of the same thing. It was just 6 hrs ago we were worried it was a cutter. Several back and forths to come. Buckle up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 I counted about 7-8 events in that gfs run. Lots of synoptic, lake enhanced and lake snow chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 GFS para well SE of 12z like u would expect, going to be tough to get precipitation east of Ontario..U never wanna be the northern cutoff during these type of events, virga city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I counted about 7-8 events in that gfs run. Lots of synoptic, lake enhanced and lake snow chances Sure all in fantasy land, never coming closer than hour 156. If I counted all the fantasyland snow this year I'd be well above average instead of 50% of average snowfall most of which coming in November. I know I'm overreacting to a lot right now I'm just sick of seeing run after run looking promising only to change for the worse one way or another as it gets within D5-7. I can only hope your right with a parade of synoptic, lake enhanced, and lake effect but I sure wouldn't bet even a dollar on it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 For now I'm goiing back to my dinking and dunking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 13, 2019 Author Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Sure all in fantasy land, never coming closer than hour 156. If I counted all the fantasyland snow this year I'd be well above average instead of 50% of average snowfall most of which coming in November. I know I'm overreacting to a lot right now I'm just sick of seeing run after run looking promising only to change for the worse one way or another as it gets within D5-7. I can only hope your right with a parade of synoptic, lake enhanced, and lake effect but I sure wouldn't bet even a dollar on it. I disagree. Cold air was not showing up beyond 3-4 weeks in any long range forecast since dec 1st. We have the cold now. It’s coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I disagree. Cold air was not showing up beyond 3-4 weeks in any long range forecast since dec 1st. We have the cold now. It’s coming we shall see what happens but I'm not getting my hopes up what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Best thing about the cold is it only takes about 20 minutes to get a drink ice cold lol Down to 4°.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This is the same pattern I dealt with the past 4 years in Michigan, so I am a bit experienced with it. You guys can blame me. Cutters and Suppression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 GEFS mean for next weekends storm Entire run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 A lot of solutions on the table. We probably won't know anything solid until Thursday/Friday. Should be a fun week of tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 First global of evening is a big hit all of ny. Good lake enhanced south of ontario. This is the icon German model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Gfs same as 18z. Cmc on another planet. Cuts storm to Detroit. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS a tic SE, but fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I’m happy the Canadian is NW. we are still smack dab in the middle of the envelope. Pretty much in the sweet spot. Feeling great about the 0z runs thus far. Bet EURO holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 GFS not far off from the euro. . Pretty sure king has the right idea, we take whatever we can get.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 A few runs ago we had that unusual 2 part storm with the secondary low forming off the coast late in the weekend. Current runs seems to be evolving towards one primary low on more of a miller A path with everything dialed back about 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Ukie is west into se Ohio at hour 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 24 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: A few runs ago we had that unusual 2 part storm with the secondary low forming off the coast late in the weekend. Current runs seems to be evolving towards one primary low on more of a miller A path with everything dialed back about 36 hours. Just a parade of storms on that GFS, we scrape the first one, but there is 2-3 that follow where we are direct hits. With that blocking they are just following that longwave through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 You don't even need to focus on specific storms when you have this pattern. Something is going to produce 100%. We're in between the + PNA and Greenland Blocking with a great source of cold air with that Hudson bay low and its in the prime portion of winter. Someone in the northeast will have feet upon feet of snow in the next 6 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Next two weeks look very exciting. Such an active pattern for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. This is exactly what we want to see. Hard to tell if at the very end the pattern is reloading or if the trough is retrograding towards the West coast. I'll remain optimistic that its reloading, several weeks of below normal temps with lots of potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Look at that lake enhanced band in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Precip type map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 No such thing Tim.. Mslp-6hr precipitation-24 hrs precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 FV3 is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It's snow, warm front makes it to Utica then heads east after redevelopment, no worries of liq with that amt of Cold pressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: FV3 is NW Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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