Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is a December 2001 redux on gfs fv3 @Thinksnow18 I just reached for the AED... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I think it’s about where we’d expect it in this time frame. My BIG concern is that a similar thing happens as to what is occurring right now, and that’s that an elongated, strong HP suppress’ it south. Im not super concerned with a cutter. At least that would buckle our horrible pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I like when ThinkSnow can’t concentrate on anything but the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I just reached for the AED... We could toss all of winter and I would be fine with it if that model run is even close to correct. Feet upon feet. It does match up with that PV lobe sitting right near Hudson Bay. Something big is coming, just have to keep these lakes warm enough. Lake Erie will likely start freezing towards end of January. Sitting at 37 degrees right now, 3 above normal. Once it hits 32 it freezes in about a week depending on the pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Textbook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Textbook There would be a week long west/SW flow in the median with that setup. Oddly it also lines up with the Blizzard of 85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 You guys in BUF are overdue. I’ll be rooting for ya. I’ll also be hoping on a couple synoptic systems that temporarily turn winds NE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: You guys in BUF are overdue. I’ll be rooting for ya. I’ll also be hoping on a couple synoptic systems that temporarily turn winds NE! Synoptic looks good, like wolfie said i'm not buying the suppressed solutions with that high to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 This is the pattern that results in major LES events. Still so far out but it's been showing up in lots of guidance the last few days. Starts around the 23rd and last until end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is the pattern that results in major LES events. Still so far out but it's been showing up in lots of guidance the last few days. So close, yet so far away! If we can get a look like that to line up with about a 4-day lead time....the possibilities are endless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: So close, yet so far away! If we can get a look like that to line up with about a 4-day lead time....the possibilities are endless. Usually lake effect you can predict quicker than synoptic. The general pattern is easier to decipher. Around a week lead way. I remember mentioning 2014 7-8 days before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I guess it's a good problem to have but the 12z GFS had system after system during that timeframe, not much in the way of lake effect.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 18z gfs has a bowling ball type system, undercuts the HP.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 With HP displaced storm cuts into wny.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I guess winds really do vary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Snow showers ongoing here this evening. Snowflakes are tiny though because of the cold. Temperature is at 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Yeah, car thermometer reading 3° imby, on and off flakes, just came back from the city of Fulton, it was 18° lol Interestingly the airport is reporting winds out of the SW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Dry and cold is the worst. This gets old fast for me. Hate walking outside and not being able to feel my hands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Blizzard of 85 is #2 match at the moment.Pattern does look good but I’m staying away from that epic talk... don’t want to get up any false hope. Plus lake temp is going to take a huge blow the next few days... However!84-85 had a super slow start to winter only 12” going into January... Jan 85 started warm and saw the lake hover at 40 for the first 10 days of the month. However mid month the pattern flipped the snow started falling and the lake dropped to 33 by the 19th when the storm started. The details right now line up almost exactly as they happened in 85. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Blizzard of 85 is #2 match at the moment. Pattern does look good but I’m staying away from that epic talk... don’t want to get up any false hope. Plus lake temp is going to take a huge blow the next few days... However! 84-85 had a super slow start to winter only 12” going into January... Jan 85 started warm and saw the lake hover at 40 for the first 10 days of the month. However mid month the pattern flipped the snow started falling and the lake dropped to 33 by the 19th when the storm started. The details right now line up almost exactly as they happened in 85. . Can I like this 50 times?! I made mention of this earlier...hey look at some point history repeats or closely resembles itself so I'm going with like 1 in a million...so your saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Dry and cold is the worst. This gets old fast for me. Hate walking outside and not being able to feel my hands. 20s, snow, and no wind is ideal winter.weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: 20s, snow, and no wind is ideal winter.weather. Same. I mean I'm one of the few on here with no snow on the ground, so its the worst. I agree 20s and lots of snow is perfect climo. I'm excited for you and wolf these next 6 weeks. Erie is going to freeze, but you guys are going to get pounded. Get those video cameras ready! I'll try to make a trip up there if it gets really good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 40 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Can I like this 50 times?! I made mention of this earlier...hey look at some point history repeats or closely resembles itself so I'm going with like 1 in a million...so your saying there's a chance... These 4 days of cold are going to take a huge toll on the lake temp. Also that cold air coming with that PV lobe is going to be almost "too cold" for really good lake effect. Hopefully it gets slightly modified. That's the only thing I'm really worried about as all models and ENS show that low near Hudson Bay. We should here the NWS start talking about it shortly. Temps look to be 30-35 with some sun the first 4-5 days of next week which will help slow the cool down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Also some sneaky potential Weds/Thurs with that arctic front. Temps should be cold enough ahead for Lake enhance snow, especially off Ontario closer to that low. A good 2-4" possibliity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Just checked and I'm only 4" above KBUF for seasonal snowfall this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 I wish we could post short video clips on here. Might have to start a YouTube account and post links to videos of the lake events here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Same goes for friday.. Gfs shows it as snow and rain but the euro is all snow, couple/few inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I wish we could post short video clips on here. Might have to start a YouTube account and post links to videos of the lake events here. Resize it to under 1.95mb.. Or turn video into gif..(under 1.95mb) https://ezgif.com/resize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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