MAG5035 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The EPS, Euro Control & GEFS agree that we get on the board with some snow in the 2 weeks. The MJO heading into phase 7 should help by next week. Yea i did notice especially the NCEP GFS related guidance seemed to be more rapid in it's progression to phase 7. Euro guidance has been really insistent on killing the magnitude of the MJO pulse whether that's right or wrong. Phase 7 is a bit of a toss up in the east. Using NDJ average the phase is colder here but with a pretty decent degree of variability (more of a tossup) indicated in the significance maps while the DJF average shows warmer than average in the east and less variability indicated but still nowhere near the clear cut signature you see from 5-6. I've always treated 7 as a phase that can still continue to feature a pattern where we can still be vulnerable to cutting storms, but we're getting there. We also have the stratospheric warming conditions going on and people sometimes don't realize that that phenomenon takes time to evolve to see results at our latitude.. on the order of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 The 0z Euro & 6z GFS both agreed on the idea of a snow storm for next Tuesday & Wednesday. They both show a storm that approaches from the west that over runs a cold large high pressure area to our north. Maybe this will be the storm that delivers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 It will end up in Ontario or Georgia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It will end up in Ontario or Georgia. Probably closer to Georgia. But at least 2018 is going out with rain. It’s fitting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 8 minutes ago, canderson said: Probably closer to Georgia. But at least 2018 is going out with rain. It’s fitting. Lol...that is what I said on the Upstate forum. It is 2018's way of saying, "I don't think you got ENOUGH rain yet. Here, have some more." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Lol did late week storm die again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 26 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol did late week storm die again? Next week is now looking good ! 12z GFS delivered again for the 9th & 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: Probably closer to Georgia. But at least 2018 is going out with rain. It’s fitting. #truth..... Man I hope next year is a little less wet and hopefully WHITE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Went out on a call 45 minutes or so ago and there was something Frzn mixed with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: #truth..... Man I hope next year is a little less wet and hopefully WHITE. I do as well but honestly feel like we'll have to wait at least 2-3 weeks. God I hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: Went out on a call 45 minutes or so ago and there was something Frzn mixed with the rain. I saw 3 snowflakes and heard about 10 pingers before it swtiched to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Approaching 82" for 2018. Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 37 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I do as well but honestly feel like we'll have to wait at least 2-3 weeks. God I hope I am wrong. Most of the good posters from the other forums & many pro Mets have been targeting January 15th-20th for when the good winter pattern should begin. So, that is basically 2-3 weeks from today if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Approaching 82" for 2018. Wow... Yep...cracked 62" here this afternoon. At my son's house in Atlanta (2 miles NW of ATL) he's had over 80" this year. He just had over 5" in 24 hours (4"+ in 12 hours) 3 days ago. That event was the fifth time this year he's had a 3"+ single day as well. WET WET WET. Please let it dry up at least a little down there especially. Happy New Year to all. Here's hoping that amazing pattern sets in soon. I read from a few mets that do analogs a lot are using '77-'78, '02-'03, and '09-'10 as inclusions to derive their winter forecasts. Those of us old enough to remember '77-'78 well should remember that winter did not begin in earnest until mid-January of 1978. But, boy what a winter it turned into after that with the hallmark Feb'78 blizzard, which I'm pretty sure ranks in the top 5 of Kocin's storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Year everyone. Storming to "beat the band" here right now with numerous lightning strikes. Temp rose from 42 to 49 within an hour. At least it is interesting weather if not snow. Waynesboro cancelled their Waynesburger drop for tonight. Moved to tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Yep...cracked 62" here this afternoon. At my son's house in Atlanta (2 miles NW of ATL) he's had over 80" this year. He just had over 5" in 24 hours (4"+ in 12 hours) 3 days ago. That event was the fifth time this year he's had a 3"+ single day as well. WET WET WET. Please let it dry up at least a little down there especially. Happy New Year to all. Here's hoping that amazing pattern sets in soon. I read from a few mets that do analogs a lot are using '77-'78, '02-'03, and '09-'10 as inclusions to derive their winter forecasts. Those of us old enough to remember '77-'78 well should remember that winter did not begin in earnest until mid-January of 1978. But, boy what a winter it turned into after that with the hallmark Feb'78 blizzard, which I'm pretty sure ranks in the top 5 of Kocin's storms. I guess most of us have "a storm" or weather event that ignited our passion for weather. February 1978 was the storm for me. I was 12 at the time, and the 70s were largely void of winter storms (at least down in our area of the state) until that blizzard hit. I have 2 specific memories...waking up in the middle of the night, turning on our outside floodlight and seeing NOTHING but blowing snow. The visibility was literally zero. All the big boys since (93, 96, etc.) have never reached what I would call a total whiteout like the blizzard of '78 did. Second memory is still sitting in my den...a picture of me standing in our driveway in front of a drift that my dad measured at just over 10'. It was so big we had to contract the township to dig us out with their front end loader. I was already a kid who loved snow, but that storm...boy, that was a game changer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 That ‘78 storm sounds epic. I was born just the year before that one ! The storm that ignited my love of the weather was the blizzard of ‘93 . On another topic & just having a little fun here... it looks like our good friend @pasnownut is busy posting more often in the Mid Atlantic forum instead of ours ! They have some fantastic posters there that I enjoy reading everyday. I wish some of their northern tier guys would post here once in awhile because their weather is at least similar to that of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That ‘78 storm sounds epic. I was born just the year before that one ! The storm that ignited my love of the weather was the blizzard of ‘93 . On another topic & just having a little fun here... it looks like our good friend @pasnownut is busy posting more often in the Mid Atlantic forum instead of ours ! They have some fantastic posters there that I enjoy reading everyday. I wish some of their northern tier guys would post here once in awhile because their weather is at least similar to that of the LSV. Agree! Especially PSUhoffman who has posted here in the past. Love his insight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Agree! Especially PSUhoffman who has posted here in the past. Love his insight. Yes, @psuhoffman & @showmethesnow live along the Mason-Dixon Line line. Their posts, along with @Bob Chill , provide great pattern analysis every day. I can’t wait until we have a legit storm to track in the New Year ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Lightning here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Absolute washout here tonight, and the temp is all of about 37ºF.. which has only come up a couple degrees all day. Miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 New Year's greetings to my Central PA friends from a rather cold Hesperia, CA where the temperature right now (7:30 pst) is 32 with a wind chill of 26. I've got to tell you that dry, desert cold feels colder than our damp cold back east...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Thanks and happy New Years!!! I should post up here more, but I guess since I lived in the DC area so long during the early years of the weather boards...once I moved back to northern MD I gravitated back there. Also there is usually more activity down there in that forum (mostly because of the greater population in that area I would suspect) during non storm threat periods. But I will try to pop in up here more often, I certainly enjoyed my time in this forum back in 2013-14. I have been calling for a flip to a colder pattern sometime mid to late January and I still feel confident in that. A lot of the analogs that had somewhat similar features to this year...1958, 1966, 1969, 1978, 1987, 2005, 2007, 2015... featured a pretty craptastic mid Dec to mid Jan. Then sometime between Jan 15 and early Feb they all flipped. Some ended up epic, others simply respectable but they all got colder and snowier the second half. As for why its been so awful lately and when the flip comes I really do think the mjo has been in the drivers seat. It makes too much sense. Most of the time the obvious answer is the correct one. The pattern really flipped on a dime when the mjo decided to go ape into the warm phases. And looking at an mjo correlations map the actual pattern the last couple weeks, and the projected one next week, look so closely like the expected mjo phases that its too much to think it's a coincidence. Add in that the mjo has been at near record amplitudes for the time of year and nino and its hard to ignore it as a driving influence. The soi being in nina territory is also not helping. I think there is likely a connection between the soi and the mjo. There is a correlation with the soi spiking during strong phases 3-6 and also a correlation with a muted mjo during el ninos. I don't know which is the chicken or the egg there but there is some linkage. There is also a correlation with the mjo into warm phases and the initiation of a SSWE so all that seems to be cascading to bring on this pattern and mute the nino background state. The end result being the increased tropical convection in the east Indian Ocean and north of Australia is derailing and running interference with the formation of a nino pacific pattern or the atmospheric coupling with the sst patterns. In essence we are in a strong la nina pacific firehose pattern despite the sst. However, I am not overly concerned yet for the rest of winter. All of the seasonal and sub seasonal guidance (other then the cfs which I largely ignore) keeps trying to go to the exact same look. The euro weeklies, euro seasonal, ukmet seasonal, JMA weeklies...all look the same. But as the pattern approaches they back off and delay. Tonight's weeklies again go to the great look but pushed it back a week again. Why? The most logical explanation is the mjo again. The guidance is seeing the sst and other factors that indicate what the base state should be...and its the exact same look supported by the analogs I identified earlier and the sst pattern. Take Joe D's Pioneer model. I know wxbell is biased but that model is really just a sst analog output and it looks identical to the pattern the long range guidance keeps wanting to go to. But analogs aren't perfect. They don't take into account changing conditions and all factors, and the oceans SST arent the only pattern driver. They are by far the most significant one but at times other things can influence the pattern one way or another. But we know the guidance struggles with the mjo at range. So it seems highly likely given that when the mjo went berserk is when things went wrong, and the pattern keeps matching up with the mjo phases perfectly, that the long range guidance is simply failing to properly account for the current mjo and soi incongruousness with the nino sst. So long as the soi and mjo remain in warm phases it is likely the pattern changes in the long range guidance is wrong. BUT...there is historical evidence that a strong soi spike during a nino in December is typically followed by a crash in January. It would also be almost unheard of for the mjo to spend an entire winter cycling through phases 3-6. Sooner or later both of those factors are likely to flip. At the very least the mjo is likely to become less amplified at some point and the soi is likely to drop, it might be now as today entered negative territory after a recent spike. So I do think once those two things sort themselves out the good look being teased by the long range guidance is finally going to become a reality. Of course that still doesn't guaruntee a specific location a great result. All of those years I listed above gave SOMEWHERE in the east a great second half snow wise. But not everyone. 1987 targeted the DC to Philly area. 2007 nailed further north. 2005 was a new england special. But every one of those years turned colder and somewhere got a snow blitz. Discreet details within the pattern that are impossible to infer at range will determine the fate of a specific location in regards to snowfall. Snowfall is incredibly fluky in general. Its a relatively minor areal coverage that gets significant snow with any synoptic event. When you are missing by 500 miles its a bad pattern. When you are missing by 50 miles it's more often bad luck. But get the pattern right and we all stand a chance...then its up to luck who ends up with a great finish and who simply had a respectable one. It's been crap lately, and the frustration is legit but I still am optimistic things flip within the next month and we have some good times ahead. If I fail because of something unprecedented like an MJO wave that cycles around in warm phases all darn winter or an SOI that stays in nina territory all through a nino winter so be it, but I find that unlikely. So far this hasn't been that out of line with the analogs and until I see evidence this has gone wrong I will have faith in the evidence I listed above for a pattern change coming relatively soon. Happy New Years and hopefully a snowy one. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Awesome post @psuhoffman and Happy New Year's to everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That ‘78 storm sounds epic. I was born just the year before that one ! The storm that ignited my love of the weather was the blizzard of ‘93 . On another topic & just having a little fun here... it looks like our good friend @pasnownut is busy posting more often in the Mid Atlantic forum instead of ours ! They have some fantastic posters there that I enjoy reading everyday. I wish some of their northern tier guys would post here once in awhile because their weather is at least similar to that of the LSV. Happy New Years gang!! Y'all are my CTP peeps, but I love the analysis side of patterns, and believe me, I'd be glad to chat in here, but while I'm considered an outcast by some down there, i really dont care as i go there to talk snow, and patterns that produce. As PSU stated, it gets quiet during slow times and I love the chase, so I head in there where they appreciate snow a little more than we do (as climo typically favors our region, and its harder to come by down there). Plus they seem to have more snow hounds and my love of snow isn't offensive in their sub forum. I think the frustrating period we are in will be changing soon, and while there are many things that we need for things to get better, much guidance says we should be heading there, despite what the models show. My gut says the SSW event that is happening is throwing a wrench into LR guidance, and the MJO will correct in the coming days. I saw PSU has thrown his reasoning in above and agree that its way too early to give up on winter. Just may not be wall to wall (stating the obvious). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Is 2019 going to be just as wet? With all the rain and mild winters, you are going to soon be called the PA-cific Northeast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The gusty winds have started arriving here and have promptly mixed the warm temps down to make for a temp all the way up to 58ºF attm. I'll be sharing my thoughts later today on some of the specifics psuhoffman touched on in his post. Happy New Year everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Happy New Year Everyone! What a difference a year can make. Last year at this time it was -6 out with 2” of snow on the ground and this morn it feels more like spring with 58 and a gusty sw wind. Let’s hope that real winter is around the corner and we’re tracking snow soon. Coop site ended up with 76.70” for 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Man it is just depressing outside. Just looked at the overnights, and it looks like the models just had WAY too much to drink last evening and puked all over us. GEFS 500MB for next week.....if it's right....just dont look. Sauss, you'll get to try out the new shorts you got for Christmas. As usual, back edge of LR shows us getting better as the flow gets right w/ ridging/split flow out west and zonal in the east, but as the NH is largely void of bigtime cold, it will have some work to do to get things right. In truth at 372 it looks much like what we thought was coming in the medium range, so proceed w/ caution if you wanna start buying the mid month flip. IF MJO gets into 7 heads for 8 i'll start buying stock in it, as it has driven the meteo bus. SOI is coming down and now neutral so that too could help to get things right. I've been thinking the SSW would be factoring in to guidance and those i follow still thinks its happening, but it's voodo stuff to some and while it can really help to dislodge the cold, if it has, it isnt being shown on the guidance. Delayed and hopefully not denied. Havent gotten the snowmobiles ready yet....still looks like i have a week or 2. BOO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Happy New Year Everyone! What a difference a year can make. Last year at this time it was -6 out with 2” of snow on the ground and this morn it feels more like spring with 58 and a gusty sw wind. Let’s hope that real winter is around the corner and we’re tracking snow soon. Coop site ended up with 76.70” for 2018 Same to you bud!! Yeah, what a difference. Sure hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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