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pasnownut

Central PA - Winter 2018-19

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7 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Funny thing...as a kid back in the early to mid 1970s I would lay in bed awake in the middle of the night with my little transistor radio waiting for Accu Weather updates...all while listening to Jim Croce, Paul McCartney and Wings, and the Carpenters. Them were some good times...

 

49 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

absolutely.  You were not the only one.  We are a unique bunch, but I consider myself to be in great company.

 

are we brothers from another motha?

 

Listening to this rain pound :raining: on the roof of work, i can't help but wonder...........................what if :facepalm:

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3 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

are we brothers from another motha?

 

Listening to this rain pound :raining: on the roof of work, i can't help but wonder...........................what if :facepalm:

Yes indeed!

We just need a little patience, just like that song from the 80’s ! 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I had a NOAA weather radio. Every day in the winter after school, I could not wait until they updated the forecast in the late afternoon. The best times took place when the alerts for a “Winter Storm Warning” were broadcast. I would listen to it over & over !

In the 80’s & 90’s,in the days before the internet, all that we had for weather news was the weather radio, local TV weather, The Weather Channel & Weather World on PBS. I would try to flip around during the 6pm or 11pm TV news to catch every forecast possible during winter!

 

I did all of those things as well, but the holy grail of television weather was Weather World. Hands down.

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10 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Funny thing...as a kid back in the early to mid 1970s I would lay in bed awake in the middle of the night with my little transistor radio waiting for Accu Weather updates...all while listening to Jim Croce, Paul McCartney and Wings, and the Carpenters. Them were some good times...

Meteorologist King Elliot Abrams.  The originator (I think) of the term 'Gorilla in the Gulf'.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I did all of those things as well, but the holy grail of television weather was Weather World. Hands down.

Grew up watching Joe B cut his teeth there.  Jon Neese, Gadomski, Night....yeah youre right.  

i still watch it.  

edit....forgot Elliot

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11 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I do understand where your coming from and I'm certainly not disagreeing that this has been a lousy month snow-wise. Back this way this month has accounted for only about an inch or so of the 13.5" I have to date when Dec generally averages roughly 8-10" here. It's been a tough month, we had a cold pattern for most of the first half of the month and missed out on a suppressed storm near mid month before the pattern switched in favor of cutting storms. We have not had any established blocking downstream to promote any consistent NW flow to promote very much snow in the LES belts or mountains either. We're just working through a period right now that has featured an unfavorable storm track but not necessarily a warm regime either, which I went into my thoughts on that in my previous post.

 In the case of MDT I just think the difference between a T for the month and 0" is a fairly moot point. It was noted in that CTP discussion I posted that "any flurries count as a trace of snow". A T for the month would still imply there wasn't any measurable snow for that month. This current December is probably going to close out with zero snowfall in MDT if there hasn't been a T recorded to this point. So yea either way we're pretty much on level footing in that regard to 2015 and 11 other Decembers.

I'm more interested in the details that got us there. I mean look at those temperatures in that period of Dec 2015 you posted. You could probably put those numbers in for the last 20 days of October and still end up above average. The warmth in that December (and November) was unbelievable. I actually am surprised there was any snow recorded, and look at the temps during those days a T was recorded. But there is no comparison to this December temp wise. The temperatures for the most part this month have been typical of the month we're in aside from the couple warm days we've had ahead of cutting storms, but we have not been in any established warm pattern. If we're talking pretty unprecedented runs without meaningful snowfall, there have been a couple winters in the recent past where we've went way into January before some LSV sites ever even had their first measurable snowfall. Take that 2015-2016 for example with the T in December, MDT didn't have their first inch until January 22-23rd (which was immediately followed by about 30" or so more). 2006-2007 was another winter that had an absolutely awful start in the LSV. I'm pretty sure York/Lancaster didn't record their first inch of snowfall until early February of that winter. MDT might not have either, check out the graph. So moral of the story, yea this has been a lousy month but I can show you worse periods of no snow..and pretty recently too haha. And MDT is already 8.8" on the season because of November's snowstorm, which still would have them above average.  

KMDT2007plot.png.1e36adb2964e4c206499228b9a47bd79.png

You can find these climo graphs HERE and they go back to 1999 for MDT. 

 

 

Yea, I certainly understand how people are not appreciating how rare of an event this really is as a trace of snow is really no snow as far as we are concerned but for record keeping purposes, this December is going to go down as one of the worst (possibly the worst) winter weather wise in history of stations such as MDT.  I never really was talking about temps though I suspect we will end up this month about 3-4 degrees above average.  I was just focusing in on the snow and sleet focus of it.  2015 was terrible but MDT saw it snow from the sky 3 times.  Mood flakes as some call it.    There are actually one or two Decembers from 88 up that had just one or two times where it snowed so 2015 is not even the worst in the last 30 years.  I really was responding to a post that said we were in a good pattern when in reality we were in a terrible pattern all of December.  We went from a suppression regime over to a blow torch with temps that rival the holy grail of 2015 though a bit less.  I am about to head out for the day and am wearing shorts!  LOL.

 

Edit-In the end I was never suggesting this December was better or worse to any other specific person just that we had the potential to have a fairly historic chance to have had absolutely no snow, sleet or freezing rain fall from the sky for the whole month.  Something that did not happen even in the supposed worst Decembers of the past making this December as bad as they come for winter weather. 

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18 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

It was October 2011 when we had that snowstorm and yea we had quite the lousy winter that season. 2011-2012 was a solidly La Nina winter so not really any similarities ENSO wise. I also believe Nov 2011 was one of the warmest on record if I recall correctly. 

Thanks Mag!

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I had a NOAA weather radio. Every day in the winter after school, I could not wait until they updated the forecast in the late afternoon. The best times took place when the alerts for a “Winter Storm Warning” were broadcast. I would listen to it over & over !

In the 80’s & 90’s,in the days before the internet, all that we had for weather news was the weather radio, local TV weather, The Weather Channel & Weather World on PBS. I would try to flip around during the 6pm or 11pm TV news to catch every forecast possible during winter!

 

The best was Weather World every weekday! I couldn't wait to get home from school to watch.  Fred Gadomoski (sp) and Paul Knight. 

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Oh, you guys are bringing back great memories. Did all of the above! Anybody else remember thinking Elliot Abrams was odd with all of his tongue-twister forecasts and puns? :P These days I would appreciate that more, as I am a Jedi Pun Master....lol

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Before December 14, we were  in a good pattern.  It did not snow here the first two weeks of December , but the pattern was not bad.  You don't always get snow just because the pattern is good.  We have had snow in some pretty bad patterns as well.  We have been a shutout pattern for a little over two weeks now.  We have nothing to show for the good period we were in, but Virginia and the Carolinas do. It would be nice to have wall to wall winter but, around here can't expect that.  There is a lot of Winter left I think we will be fine.

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More rain. 

MDT will end the 2nd wettest year ever but really it’s the wettest. 2011’s rain came in a two week period between Irene and Lee (like 29” or something). The number of rainy days in 2018 has to be like double that of 2011. 

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36 minutes ago, canderson said:

More rain. 

MDT will end the 2nd wettest year ever but really it’s the wettest. 2011’s rain came in a two week period between Irene and Lee (like 29” or something). The number of rainy days in 2018 has to be like double that of 2011. 

and i believe only the 2nd time since record keeping a snow-less December 

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4 hours ago, daxx said:

Before December 14, we were  in a good pattern.  It did not snow here the first two weeks of December , but the pattern was not bad.  You don't always get snow just because the pattern is good.  We have had snow in some pretty bad patterns as well.  We have been a shutout pattern for a little over two weeks now.  We have nothing to show for the good period we were in, but Virginia and the Carolinas do. It would be nice to have wall to wall winter but, around here can't expect that.  There is a lot of Winter left I think we will be fine.

Good post Brian! My wife and kids reaped 22" from that good patern 3 weeks ago. I agree that good times are ahead...sometime.

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Good post Brian! My wife and kids reaped 22" from that good patern 3 weeks ago. I agree that good times are ahead...sometime.

There is no way I would have missed that if I had any chance of going.  Hopefully they took a lot of pictures. 

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I miss winter. It’s been basically April this month.

And it looks more and more like January won’t deliver any winter or cold the first 10 or so days at least either. 

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37 minutes ago, canderson said:

I miss winter. It’s been basically April this month.

And it looks more and more like January won’t deliver any winter or cold the first 10 or so days at least either. 

MR and LR models are abandoning us right now for the majority of the month of January.  Lets hope they are wrong otherwise we will be seeing a continuation of several  days in the 50's for the first two weeks Jan.  I thought for sure this pattern was going to flip and maybe it will but anyone that would have to forecast based on modeling would have to toss out most of the first two weeks of Jan, for winter weather, at this point.

 

Today's marks the 4th day in a row we have hit 50 down here near the MD border and that is at 800'.  I know official stations like MDT are only going into the upper 40's.

 

 

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Patience everyone....patience.

I think we will be talking about storms & rumors of snow storms before too long!

Trust in the Euro weeklies & good seasonal models that have advertised a good looking winter pattern for the middle of January right through March.

Our time will come soon!

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Patience everyone....patience.

I think we will be talking about storms & rumors of snow storms before too long!

Trust in the Euro weeklies & good seasonal models that have advertised a good looking winter pattern for the middle of January right through March.

Our time will come soon!

I had been pinpointing mid January for a bit but was really hoping we get something before then just to have something to talk about other than rain total records and balmy temps.  I cannot imagine the whole winter goes up in a poof so it is indeed coming eventually...at least cold weather and rumors of storms.  

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12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I had been pinpointing mid January for a bit but was really hoping we get something before then just to have something to talk about other than rain total records and balmy temps.  I cannot imagine the whole winter goes up in a poof so it is indeed coming eventually...at least cold weather and rumors of storms.  

Yes, I hope we score some snow before mid January too.

The January 3rd/4th possibility is not dead yet & there is another chance on the 8th or 9th as well.

If not, maybe this will be like the winter of 2014-2015, where we didn’t get much snow before January 20th that year. Then we had a good pattern of snow from late January through the middle of March that took MDT to an above average snow season of 39 inches.

This year, at least we are still running above normal snow to date thanks to our November 8.8 inch snowfall.

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The 0z EPS, 6z GFS & 6z GEFS all improved our snow chances for this Thursday & Friday. Hopefully the marginal cold air holds in place long enough & the low strengthens & passes to our southeast. We of course need the timing to be just right, but the possibility is increasing.

Hopefully 12z runs keep us in the game!

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This possible storm around the 4th has been showing some signs of being interesting but models are all over the place with it. Euro been most consistent with having an actual storm impact our area but it's been a messy evolution and detached from a cold air source. Today's 12z run does have a slug of precip under the upper level low with the cold pool of air which I would imagine would constitute at least an elevational snow threat after some initial rainfall. But it looks like something you'd see in October with it's marginal temps. 

GFS has been colder here having a more pronounced northern stream shortwave passage to our north but also much more progressive/weaker with the southern stream wave that would be the impacting system. Most runs of the GFS really haven't made much here until 0z last night and especially 6z this morning before going back the progressive route 12z today. 12z Canadian looked somewhat close to the 6z GFS having a big system but somewhat warmer than that GFS run early this morning. GFS and Canadian progress the wave out with the Canadian having a much more robust and closed off 500mb low. Euro evolution has an even deeper closed off 500mb low that is much slower. Given progressive/positive tilted look to the pattern on models, I'd personally lean away from Euro's wound up and slow evolution and go for the more progressive solutions. It wouldn't be anything new if the Euro is hanging back southern stream energy. Questions will be is there going to be cold enough air around (especially for LSV) and if we have a robust enough storm to even make anything in this region. The potential track of this.. at least for now looks better than our last couple plus the one thats going to make us wet for New Years... closer to being a coastal than a lakes cutter. 

I know we're in a unfavorable pattern right now but we're not in a impossible situation. It's not like our half of the country is 30 above normal and we have an eastern ridge to the north pole. One of these waves is eventually going to surprise us. 

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9 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I think I may start pitching batting practice next week :facepalm:

 

I dumped some ice in my lawn last evening and just noticed it is still mostly there 24 hours later.  I am going to go ahead and chalk that up as a win in this winter so far.

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7 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

This possible storm around the 4th has been showing some signs of being interesting but models are all over the place with it. Euro been most consistent with having an actual storm impact our area but it's been a messy evolution and detached from a cold air source. Today's 12z run does have a slug of precip under the upper level low with the cold pool of air which I would imagine would constitute at least an elevational snow threat after some initial rainfall. But it looks like something you'd see in October with it's marginal temps. 

GFS has been colder here having a more pronounced northern stream shortwave passage to our north but also much more progressive/weaker with the southern stream wave that would be the impacting system. Most runs of the GFS really haven't made much here until 0z last night and especially 6z this morning before going back the progressive route 12z today. 12z Canadian looked somewhat close to the 6z GFS having a big system but somewhat warmer than that GFS run early this morning. GFS and Canadian progress the wave out with the Canadian having a much more robust and closed off 500mb low. Euro evolution has an even deeper closed off 500mb low that is much slower. Given progressive/positive tilted look to the pattern on models, I'd personally lean away from Euro's wound up and slow evolution and go for the more progressive solutions. It wouldn't be anything new if the Euro is hanging back southern stream energy. Questions will be is there going to be cold enough air around (especially for LSV) and if we have a robust enough storm to even make anything in this region. The potential track of this.. at least for now looks better than our last couple plus the one thats going to make us wet for New Years... closer to being a coastal than a lakes cutter. 

I know we're in a unfavorable pattern right now but we're not in a impossible situation. It's not like our half of the country is 30 above normal and we have an eastern ridge to the north pole. One of these waves is eventually going to surprise us. 

The EPS, Euro Control & GEFS agree that we get on the board with some snow in the 2 weeks. The MJO heading into phase 7 should help by next week. 

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