Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: we don’t wine em all. Bill Cosby wined them all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 CTP addressing their risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 One thing to consider is the front end thump. If that does indeed happen and places north of Flathead's house get 4 or 5 hours of 1 or 2"/hr rates, that's potentially eight-to-ten inches, not including the aggregate of the hours where it's only .5 per hour or so and then any sleet. I guess it's not impossible for places like Duncannon, Newport, Blain, Cassville, and Claysburg to verify an 8-12 call before a switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst has nothing good to say about snow this morning as he's anticipated. Says warm air aloft wins and his low accumulation numbers are most likely...Lancaster and York 1", Harrisburg up to 4". All snow is north of I-80. Yea all morning upper air data is not a good look for southern PA outside of the mountains. I’m not even sure Harrisburg gets to 4” based on how things currently look because even with snow falling before changeover temps may not be able to fall to 32 or below at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Amazing how off everything is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 35 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I’ve got another word in mind starts with....bull ends with....it. It is fun a and we don’t wine em all but I have fun tryin. Just got outta treestand. Was in since 6:20 am. Beautiful morning. That's not how you spell "bullet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The reverse of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Horst moved everything NW about 30 miles. Harrisburg 2-4”, anyone SE see rain. State Colege 6-12”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I can live with that. I need to shovel a foot of snow and sleet like I need water in my lungs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I can live with that. I need to shovel a foot of snow and sleet like I need water in my lungs. Just imagine how Flathead feels - he has to shovel the entire turnpike. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 He put that snow & ice text right over my house...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 CTP is making their call for more snow south of I-80 to the Turnpike and I definitely respect that. Unfortunately the models keep trending warmer and even the NAM now surges warm air north enough to make a good portion of the precip non-snow up to even Clearfield on ENE. Some of the precip on the most recent NAM may even be rain in UNV. Hopefully the snow is good for the initial few hours, but I'm thinking sleet/ZR/rain is knocking down accums for almost everyone in this subforum. I'd go 6-10" along I-80 including IPT and UNV, 4-7" in Altoona (maybe not AOO which is south of town), 3-5" in Harrisburg and along I-76. The foot or higher totals may be in the northern third of the state and north of IPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: Just imagine how Flathead feels - he has to shovel the entire turnpike. He makes Nanny do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 28 minutes ago, canderson said: Horst moved everything NW about 30 miles. Harrisburg 2-4”, anyone SE see rain. State Colege 6-12”. Harrisburg is still in the 3-6 on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 33 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: One thing to consider is the front end thump. If that does indeed happen and places north of Flathead's house get 4 or 5 hours of 1 or 2"/hr rates, that's potentially eight-to-ten inches, not including the aggregate of the hours where it's only .5 per hour or so and then any sleet. I guess it's not impossible for places like Duncannon, Newport, Blain, Cassville, and Claysburg to verify an 8-12 call before a switch. Well, did not like that final bump from the guidance this morning.. esp from the NAM. That's no bueno for the Pit Metro and our far southern tier gang. Everything's pretty much in agreement now and the surface low enters SW PA and runs southern PA instead of staying just south.. and that has the biggest implications in Pittsburgh and also south and east of H-burg with respect to higher snow totals. That track would also shift the deform snow axis NW to the northern tier and NW PA so the central locations are going to have to get there mostly on front end snow. That might spoil AOO and UNV's bid at 10 or more. But HRRR continues to look good for that general area you mention with those locations. I guess the good thing with that lousy track is that central is going to get slotted before it mixes for too long. If I were to make a call for the Harrisburg region, I think at least 4-5 is still pretty doable, and York/Lancaster region can still pick up 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 CTP is doubling down on the 5-6 snow range from the turnpike on north with this map issued at 10:35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 59 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: One thing to consider is the front end thump. If that does indeed happen and places north of Flathead's house get 4 or 5 hours of 1 or 2"/hr rates, that's potentially eight-to-ten inches, not including the aggregate of the hours where it's only .5 per hour or so and then any sleet. I guess it's not impossible for places like Duncannon, Newport, Blain, Cassville, and Claysburg to verify an 8-12 call before a switch. That’s a great point! That’s what the November storm did in the Harrisburg area with 1-2 inch per hour rates for just about 6 hours. We got 8.8 inches from that thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well, did not like that final bump from the guidance this morning.. esp from the NAM. That's no bueno for the Pit Metro and our far southern tier gang. Everything's pretty much in agreement now and the surface low enters SW PA and runs southern PA instead of staying just south.. and that has the biggest implications in Pittsburgh and also south and east of H-burg with respect to higher snow totals. That track would also shift the deform snow axis NW to the northern tier and NW PA so the central locations are going to have to get there mostly on front end snow. That might spoil AOO and UNV's bid at 10 or more. But HRRR continues to look good for that general area you mention with those locations. I guess the good thing with that lousy track is that central is going to get slotted before it mixes for too long. If I were to make a call for the Harrisburg region, I think at least 4-5 is still pretty doable, and York/Lancaster region can still pick up 1-2". Thanks for your analysis. In the PIT area, we weren't necessarily expecting to start as rain, but we already have rain and sleet observations in Allegheny county. Seems the north trend wins again, even late to the party, but we probably should have expected it without the necessary blocking and cold air in place. My temp (just south of the city) is already at 34F and precip hasn't started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Guys I just started a fresh thread for this storm since we're at about 2500 posts in here. If this storm flops and we don't end up a ton of postings on it than I will just rename to be a new general discussion thread after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I do like that the dew points keep coming down. So cold is draining down the east side.Down into the low to mid 20s now her in Lancaster. Haven’t look at mid levels, though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 19, 2019 Author Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: That's not how you spell "bullet." lol was bow hunting in Chester. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It's snowing but but it's all doom and gloom reading in here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, 2001kx said: It's snowing but but it's all doom and gloom reading in here today. It's not snowing everywhere yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Atomixwx said: I just follow you all in real life. @Flatheadsickness built him and his dog one hell of a fire last night. I know this because now that I know he's tracking me and Nanny's business, I want to make sure she has sufficient private time for private time. Enough is enough with nanny ! 1. she needs to stay on her lip ointment one more week 2. you need to let her denture glue dry a few more bays before you jar them lose again. 3 nanny came up short again someone owes me $1.98. Just because you look like the local cop for super troopers don't mean you get a discount homie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I just want to apologize to each and every one of you for earlier. Obviously I got out of bed on the wrong side this morning. I'm truly sorry for...well, you know. I was umm...overbearing and obnoxious. I think your great . stimulus at this forum is much needed at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Snow has commenced in southern York County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 So two chances at winter weather during the work week. Wed Am a surprise but moderate signal for ice....and then watching that same front for a coastal to form Friday. I love chasing these things, when I have time, by watching models and discussing results with others. I actually use that discussion to help prepare forecasts for a few clients but after last week I felt several bad vibes for bringing you guys into it so I will chase with some others who also enjoy it but should still be around here when it comes to obs time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 I was out side and looked up I had no idea there was an eclipse tonight I guess it was over shadowed by the storm. Its cold out there tonight carhartt extream coverall are the bees knees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 he is mad tonight because its to FN cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 21, 2019 Share Posted January 21, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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