Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 We'll get our storm. In May during second fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, lpaschall said: I dont trust anything the models put out outside of 36 hours. I have avoided our mid atlantic long range thread as its a roller coaster discussion that has zero usefulness. Well hopefully I am not offending too many people with my short bursts of model discussion. We are within 24-36 hours now. I had a week where I was at my computer a lot so have been having fun with it and trying to keep even keeled through our little to no snow runs, like now, and the more excitable runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yea mid week will most likely be a rain event. After that I have high hopes! LolThat will be a rainstorm into the Great Lakes region.A second wave may try to get going along the front.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Well hopefully I am not offending too many people with my short bursts of model discussion. I had a week where I was at my computer a lot so have been having fun with it and trying to keep even keeled through our little to no snow runs, like now, and the more excitable runs. Not at all and I am here because my forum threw in the towel on this storm and I am on the fringes of this forum. Was primarily focusing on the long discussions about MJO, STS, etc... and what the long range models have 384 days out lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, lpaschall said: I dont trust anything the models put out outside of 36 hours. I have avoided our mid atlantic long range thread as its a roller coaster discussion that has zero usefulness. I'm with you on that. The -NAO keeps getting pushed back (always two weeks away). The one positive sign is the -AO does look to come to fruition, but it could also immediately bounce back into positive territory, so all you can do is shrug your shoulders. The MJO isn't helping at all, doing laps in warm phases. Long range forecasts have been extra unreliable this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, lpaschall said: Not at all and I am here because my forum threw in the towel on this storm and I am on the fringes of this forum. Was primarily focusing on the long discussions about MJO, STS, etc... and what the long range models have 384 days out lol.... This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Reaching for straws the CMC is not nearly as warm as some other guidance. Much more of a classic distribution to the mix line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: This one has been frustrating to me as it seemed apparent, early week, that there was nothing that was going to stop this low from getting up to or north of us...then the models kept hinting, almost every other run, that the low could jump and transfer southeast just in time to turn a big rain storm into a MECS so it lured me in. Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Does this mean we can STOP TALKING ABOUT THE ICON? Because honestly I'll punt this storm entirely if that's the end result. Also the GFS if this comes to fruition kicked EVERYONE'S ass on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Voyager said: Don't you know that since the internet and us weenies having access to the models, the programmers put that extra code in there for the models to do that...just to aggravate us. Then they join the forums, and lurk, laughing as we go emotional over each model run. I guess I have an affinity to track one that looked bad but surprised us. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 45 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Haha, Dauphin county has contours that forecast between 2-12 over a distance of 25-30 miles. . Pro That’s what pains me the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) Lanco/York: 1"-3" Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" ) Ridge and Valley: 4"-8" Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10" Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Does this mean we can STOP TALKING ABOUT THE ICON? Because honestly I'll punt this storm entirely if that's the end result. Also the GFS if this comes to fruition kicked EVERYONE'S ass on this. True statement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) Lanco/York: 1"-3" Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" ) Ridge and Valley: 4"-8" Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10" Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15"That looks like a good call.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) Lanco/York: 1"-3" Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" ) Ridge and Valley: 4"-8" Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10" Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15" Solid call, I'm sticking with my original. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Anyone else want to lay some chips out there? Final call: (same as I've been saying for 3 days) Lanco/York: 1"-3" Harrisburg metro area: 2"-4" (Carlisle officially 3.3" ) Ridge and Valley: 4"-8" Williamsport/MAG land: 6" - 10" Nut's Cabin: 10" - 15" I'll accept your predictions...all but mine. For me, 4.8". LOL. BTW, I hate trying to predict. It's much more fun observing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChalkHillSnowNut Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 20 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Reaching for straws the CMC is not nearly as warm as some other guidance. Much more of a classic distribution to the mix line. This says it’s valid through Wednesday? Does this include Wednesday precipitation as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'll accept your predictions...all but mine. For me, 4.8". LOL. BTW, I hate trying to predict. It's much more fun observing. I agree, but at least this way I can put it out in the open how little I actually know. Interestingly...your guess and my guess are probably only separated by 1 extra hour of snow, which isn't much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said: This says it’s valid through Wednesday? Does this include Wednesday precipitation as well? Yes but non of the post Sunday precip would be snow for PA. All of this is from the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 No signs yet of approaching breaks in the overcast. Temp only at 31. Think we won't hit projected high of 40. I predict 36. Let's see how that turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If this isn't right over us (Lancaster) I don't know what is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: If this isn't right over us (Lancaster) I don't know what is: Yikes...how does it get to that point? Does the primary go well into PA then transfer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Yikes...how does it get to that point? Does the primary go well into PA then transfer? Here is a site where you can look at the panels. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hot off the press (with track of LP included) He was saying Monday it would cross Lancaster county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If only that low would track DC to Atlantic City... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 He’s also been concerned with the ice accretion. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I’ll stick with my call yesterday of kmdt seeing 4” with a lot of ice with a caveat that within 12 miles south and north of the turnpike someone sees 2” and someone sees 8” with the key being how long after 6pm do the pingers start. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Jns2183 said: I’ll stick with my call yesterday of kmdt seeing 4” with a lot of ice with a caveat that within 12 miles south and north of the turnpike someone sees 2” and someone sees 8” with the key being how long after 6pm do the pingers start . Pro I agree with you on the gradient...except I'll say 2" - 6" within 12 miles. Should be fun to watch it unfold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Superstorm said: He’s also been concerned with the ice accretion. . That...and he actually moved the 3"-6" contour SOUTH from yesterday. (I'm now in the 3-6 zone...barely, but within it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That...and he actually moved the 3"-6" contour SOUTH from yesterday. (I'm now in the 3-6 zone)Saw that too. Aligns well with his discussion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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