kerplunk Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just in: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, djr5001 said: That TT 10:1 map looks a little off to me as I don't see anything that supports it printing totals that high across southern tier of LSV even if there ends up being sleet involved. Kuchera and Ferrier (available with 3km NAM on TT) are significantly lower with totals across that area. Soundings have York to Lancaster corridor as freezing rain by 8pm tomorrow night. I have long thought that the TT 10:1 map factors in surface temp in calculating snow totals, have been told that is not the case, but once again it is printing large snow amounts when surface temp is at or below freezing and upper air temps are above 0C. Front end thump is going to be nice but sure looks to get messy after that because I just don't see the cold air at the surface warming all that quickly to above freezing if even at all (especially around I-81 stretch from Carlisle to east of Harrisburg). Last image = major yuck I concur with the story behind these maps. What the models are showing right now is not a snow storm for the LSV. A few inches, transition to sleet then a "warm" freezing rain where it may be 32 but the rain is falling so fast it is not cause as much damage as if it were 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Just in: Last map they put out had Lancaster at 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Icon snow fall map really questions whether this is anything other than a SECS state wide. Probably underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If interested, Horst has just tweeted a bunch of his morning thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: And? There's so many I didn't copy/paste, I was suggesting if interested to go take a look. Seems like he's calling for 4"-6" along the "toll road" Perhaps 1" near the M/D line 18" in northcentral PA Long duration freezing rain down here tomorrow night Start time is 3pm, ends at 11am Sunday .1 - .4 of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 A few mid-morning thoughts on upcoming impacts across the Lancaster area. • A moisture-rich & fast-moving storm--in and out in ~20 hours. • Snow begins ~3pm SAT...may come down heavy w/ sleet for a few hours, then over to an extended period of freezing rain overnight. 6:47 AM - 18 Jan 2019 New conversation E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather 28m28 minutes ago More • A brief change back to snow is possible ~8am Sunday, then a quick end as gusty Arctic winds kick up. • Temps will fall throughout Sunday with a rapid refreeze of standing water/slush. • Low temps Sunday night in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills. E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather 28m28 minutes ago More • Front-end accumulation of snow & sleet will have a very sharp gradient...with <1" in Philly up to 18"+ in northcentral PA. Lancaster will reflect this gradient...perhaps only 1" near the MD boarder up to 4 to 6" along the Turnpike. Perhaps 2 to 4" of snow/sleet in Lanc city... E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather 28m28 minutes ago More • Ice accretion from the freezing rain Saturday night is the wild card. Surface temps are the critical factor...and this will vary town to town across the county...and so the amount of ice accretion may vary from 0.1" up to ~0.4". Tough to nuance such a complex storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Porsche said: A few mid-morning thoughts on upcoming impacts across the Lancaster area. • A moisture-rich & fast-moving storm--in and out in ~20 hours. • Snow begins ~3pm SAT...may come down heavy w/ sleet for a few hours, then over to an extended period of freezing rain overnight. 6:47 AM - 18 Jan 2019 New conversation E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather 28m28 minutes ago More • A brief change back to snow is possible ~8am Sunday, then a quick end as gusty Arctic winds kick up. • Temps will fall throughout Sunday with a rapid refreeze of standing water/slush. • Low temps Sunday night in the single digits with sub-zero wind chills. E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather 28m28 minutes ago More • Front-end accumulation of snow & sleet will have a very sharp gradient...with <1" in Philly up to 18"+ in northcentral PA. Lancaster will reflect this gradient...perhaps only 1" near the MD boarder up to 4 to 6" along the Turnpike. Perhaps 2 to 4" of snow/sleet in Lanc city... E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather 28m28 minutes ago More • Ice accretion from the freezing rain Saturday night is the wild card. Surface temps are the critical factor...and this will vary town to town across the county...and so the amount of ice accretion may vary from 0.1" up to ~0.4". Tough to nuance such a complex storm. Yeah...what he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12Z Rgem is still shorts weather. If you want to see the snow map take a look at a gif of a white painted wall. Well not exactly but just 2-3" for most LSV before it is all washed away with temps in the 40's and 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, canderson said: So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting? Shovel it as it flips and keep salting the hell out of it... Honestly, I don't know. That's always been my dilemma in these types of storms. When to shovel for maximum (and safe) effect and the least amount of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting? My plan is to try and time it right and do a round of clearing I would say late afternoon/early evening after the first few inches so that some additional snow falls before a changeover then don't touch it until ending on Sunday. That way its not a full water logged and frozen heavy mess to try and shovel and its also not just ice that will be nearly impossible to use salt on Sunday once the arctic air starts to arrive and temps drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting?If it gets above freezing it will probably be between midnight and 7 am. After 7 it starts going into the freezer. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Last map they put out had Lancaster at 3". Haha, Dauphin county has contours that forecast between 2-12 over a distance of 25-30 miles. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 32 minutes ago, Jmister said: Definitely jealous of you true Central PA guys this storm! I came to State College in 2007 from PHL and was expecting to get pummeled by I-95 runners but instead missed out on 3 of the top 5 PHL snows ever while the single best storm in UNV my ten winters was 14" in Feb 2010 (PHL recorded 28" ). Now that I'm back in the PHL area, these are the kinds of storms I hoped for back in State College. Figures. Enjoy! I'm pretty sure at least from looking at some of the KPSU observation archives that if the State College area were to see 10"+ from this storm that it would be the first time since the 95-96 winter for having multiple 10"+ events. Not even 02-03, 03-04, or 09-10 had that there (only 1 per winter). It doesn't happen too often even in the snowier winters. 3 minutes ago, canderson said: So say Harrisburg gets prolonged freezing rain Saturday night (I think it's possible with CAD issues here) - how/when the hell do you shovel? Wait until mid-morning Sunday before the wind kicks up and try to take care of it before it becomes a freezer that needs defrosting? I try to clear off after things mix/change over and put salt down, and usually that'll make any sleet/ice easier to remove. Especially if there ends up being a good bit of sleet.. sometimes that's worse than having a crusty top to the snow. That or leave whatever snow is there til the event's over but with the possibility of a rapid refreeze that might not be the best idea for this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Haha, Dauphin county has contours that forecast between 2-12 over a distance of 25-30 miles. . Pro Just saw that, and given how big Dauphin is north to south I guess it's in the realm of possibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS is a 2-4" for LSV and then warm at the surface. 35-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: GFS is a 2-4" for LSV and then warm at the surface. 35-40 Seems reasonable. (amounts and temperatures) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I'm pretty sure at least from looking at some of the KPSU observation archives that if the State College area were to see 10"+ from this storm that it would be the first time since the 95-96 winter for having multiple 10"+ events. Not even 02-03, 03-04, or 09-10 had that there (only 1 per winter). It doesn't happen too often even in the snowier winters. wow, that's some stat. I would have never thought multiple double digit storms in one winter are all that rare in central PA, especially out that way. seems the last 10 years or so the big ones have def initely hit more south and east areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I thought the gfs looked terrible. Not good for a lot of people except the far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Hi all. Just caught up from overnight posts. Ended up with 1.9" total from the snow which was certainly more than I was initially thinking at the beginning last night despite how adamant the models seemed at painting 2" totals. Regarding tomorrow...wow. NWS earlier update had me at 6". Then the newer update now says 6 to 8". Definitely have tilted the gradient lines. This morning's NAM shows about 6" of snow but then 0.50" of freezing rain. Yikes. I'm in the max freezing rain area. This would be reminiscent of the Jan 1994 snow/ice storm that preceded the record cold wave. Even Horst seemed to be playing up his concern about ZR. That was my takeaway from his discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS really hasn't wavered for days and you could argue other models (except the damn stubborn Germans) have come back to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Seems reasonable. (amounts and temperatures) If the Euro holds its ground they may cancel the WSW. I am a huge believer in Cad but you need something pushing the air down the east side of the slopes for it to be a factor and not seeing a lot of cad signatures in the thermal parts of the maps. Again if we currently had arctic air over us it would be one thing but it is going to be 40 today and above freezing again tomorrow before the precip starts. Just not a signal for a real ice storm unless the afternoon runs are wrong and our wind direction can be changed more quickly by the low, whether on surface or transfer, being deflected more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, daxx said: I thought the gfs looked terrible. Not good for a lot of people except the far north. Yep, unless we get some movement in that LP position this is quickly turning into a non event for us. Still a little time left but would be a terrible bust for the models at this point. As Nut had been adamant about we really just need that lead Vort to stay 50 miles further south than progged. Fingers crossed. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Yep, unless we get some movement in that LP position this is quickly turning into a non event for us. Still a little time left but would be a terrible bust for the models at this point. Don't worry...Horst is calling for another rain storm by midweek! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Don't worry...Horst is calling for another rain storm by midweek! 0z Euro had a coastal snowstorm for us late week. That early week system is already a non factor it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Fv3 looks like sh!t as well. Oh well I think we are headed in the right direction for more snow beginning later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Don't worry...Horst is calling for another rain storm by midweek! Yea mid week will most likely be a rain event. After that I have high hopes! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I dont trust anything the models put out outside of 36 hours. I have avoided our mid atlantic long range thread as its a roller coaster discussion that has zero usefulness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now