lpaschall Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Storm also appears faster which can play games with comparing panels. Good point. If you take that into consideration it does align with 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It is trying to transfer/decouple. Panel 39 it focuses on the southern vort then back to the northern vort the next panel. Still think it is indeed a tad warmer overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 CTP keeps dropping the hammer further south but keeps a razor-sharp gradient right at the Flathead's house on the toll road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: It is trying to transfer/decouple. Panel 39 it focuses on the southern vort then back to the northern vort the next panel. Still think it is indeed a tad warmer overall. I presume if it decouples the solution would come in colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 End result I think for most of LSV is 3-6" of snow then slop...possibly even rain. Whole LSV goes above freezing verbatim but much of the precip is gone as we dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, lpaschall said: I presume if it decouples the solution would come in colder? Yea, my premise/hope for snows here would be less phasing and the southern Vort taking over sooner which would stop the massive influx of southerly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Its eventually goes with the southern vort taking it off the SE VA coast but like so many other runs the damage has already been done for our temps by that point. Snow map looks great but Kuchera will not look nearly as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Still looks like it is trying to go below us. Most still frozen well into the event. Snowfall map is going to be juicy but again this TT map will include sleet. Just fine. It held on for 1 more round. We are going to rain, but limiting that and warm air intrusion should be our quest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Its eventually goes with the southern vort taking it off the SE VA coast but like so many other runs the damage has already been done for our temps by that point. Snow map looks great but Kuchera will not look nearly as good. Does it go above freezing and for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Its eventually goes with the southern vort taking it off the SE VA coast but like so many other runs the damage has already been done for our temps by that point. Snow map looks great but Kuchera will not look nearly as good. had it not transferred, we'd have been much worse off IMO. #graspingiknow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Does it go above freezing and for how long? NAM warmest panel of storm (surface temps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Does it go above freezing and for how long? Yes, for a good 6-10 hours though you never know how CAD will play into that. We need that first impulse to not get so far north and drag its ugly warm temps with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 @anotherman thats not necessarily a snow killer if you throw enough sleet on it. Will be a glacier sunday night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Yes, for a good 6-10 hours though you never know how CAD will play into that. We need that first impulse to not get so far north and drag its ugly warm temps with it. phrase of the day......... so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: @anotherman thats not necessarily a snow killer if you throw enough sleet on it. Will be a glacier sunday night though. Definitely not. If it stays cloudy and only gets to 33 or 34 the roads will be better but we still keep our pack! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: @anotherman thats not necessarily a snow killer if you throw enough sleet on it. Will be a glacier sunday night though. Yeah, I know. Going to be interesting. The NAM is such a tease, no....a temptress! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: Yeah, I know. Going to be interesting. The NAM is such a tease, no....a temptress! things to remember about the NAM 1 it likes to over amp storms 2 it does pretty well w/ thermals (being hi res) BOTH of them can play in our favor for this storm evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Yeah, I know. Going to be interesting. The NAM is such a tease, no....a temptress! yes, but it is inside its "wheelhouse", so it should be gaining some weight in forecasts. not saying we win, but we may just lose better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: yes, but it is inside its "wheelhouse", so it should be gaining some weight in forecasts. not saying we win, but we may just lose better.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: yes, but it is inside its "wheelhouse", so it should be gaining some weight in forecasts. not saying we win, but we may just lose better.... At least the first 12Z model did not ruin the fun of watching the others :-). And on this point, the Nam has not really changed at a lot since it got within 84 hours. The GFS and Euro have jumped much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 22 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: CTP keeps dropping the hammer further south but keeps a razor-sharp gradient right at the Flathead's house on the toll road. They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Voyager said: They seem to be realigning the gradient to a more southwest to northeast trajectory. Last night it was a bit more west to east, and I was in the 8-12 zone. Per their latest map, I'm now in the 6-8 zone, so while some of your totals are increasing, mine are decreasing. Maybe the laid off IRS people are doing weather forecasts. We will all owe snow if that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Definitely jealous of you true Central PA guys this storm! I came to State College in 2007 from PHL and was expecting to get pummeled by I-95 runners but instead missed out on 3 of the top 5 PHL snows ever while the single best storm in UNV my ten winters was 14" in Feb 2010 (PHL recorded 28" ). Now that I'm back in the PHL area, these are the kinds of storms I hoped for back in State College. Figures. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I just caught up to the overnight posts and HOLY MOLY the living on the turnpike discussion is gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Yes. Gold. Coincidentally, Gold is what you need to not go bankrupt on the turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Thanks, Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Icon is the same through 24 though Daxx has probably already seen it if he is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Yes. Gold. Coincidentally, Gold is what you need to not go bankrupt on the turnpike. Gold is also what you need on the NWS probabilistic snow maps as well...if you want to see significant snow anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, icon with amazing consistency. Even with a trend gif you can hardly tell the LP is at a different place between 6z and 12z. Going to be front end thump then slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That TT 10:1 map looks a little off to me as I don't see anything that supports it printing totals that high across southern tier of LSV even if there ends up being sleet involved. Kuchera and Ferrier (available with 3km NAM on TT) are significantly lower with totals across that area. Soundings have York to Lancaster corridor as freezing rain by 8pm tomorrow night. I have long thought that the TT 10:1 map factors in surface temp in calculating snow totals, have been told that is not the case, but once again it is printing large snow amounts when surface temp is at or below freezing and upper air temps are above 0C. Front end thump is going to be nice but sure looks to get messy after that because I just don't see the cold air at the surface warming all that quickly to above freezing if even at all (especially around I-81 stretch from Carlisle to east of Harrisburg). Last image = major yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now