paweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS = sorry. You can look at Canada and it is writing on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s very interesting that the Mt.Holly forecast office has 5-10 inches of snow for their Winter Storm Watch for Berks County & the Lehigh Valley. They must be even more confident than CTP for the colder solutions to win out. They always are more aggresive w/ forecasts. I read them, then extrapolate 1 county westward....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 RGEM is a torch at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Toast but nice front end thump om the GFS so close though...……..this is going to be a rollercoaster the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: Did Dave Tolleris put out his first guess on his first call on his first prediction yet? Who cares....you need to get to prediction #3 till he gets close. J/K...sorta. He hugs the Euro, and that detracts from the other skill he obviously has IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If anyone thinks this is over not even close. I do like Horst and glad he is sticking to what he said almost a week ago. But I don't want to forecast this. Literally GFS is a tick transfer away from being a bomb for most of PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 59 minutes ago, canderson said: If the NAM is right I’ll buy every person in this thread as many drinks as they can handle at McGrath’s in hbg. I'll come drink one w/ ya no matter the result...ya weenie. What da frik happened. I go play floor hockey and rehydrate at a pub, and its wowzers, for the 18/0z's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, paweather said: GFS = sorry. You can look at Canada and it is writing on the wall. GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression. All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements. Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression. All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements. Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual. yep so close no doubt. That high earlier in the week was 1039 now 1034. Need to keep the strength of that. for LSV this is a snow, ice, (maybe rain) back to snow 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Not what you wanted to see unfortunately To h#ll w/ the Germans..... Americans can handle this from here............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, paweather said: If anyone thinks this is over not even close. I do like Horst and glad he is sticking to what he said almost a week ago. But I don't want to forecast this. Literally GFS is a tick transfer away from being a bomb for most of PA. You said it, and its what I've been saying for a week (last Friday this storm got my interest). I dont care who you are or how it turns out, there is not a forecaster out there that can pin em from +72 hours in situ's like this. Not in a micro level anyway. Macro...sure, they can get close, but close for us on the fringe is a BIG difference (as we all know too well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: GFS is somewhat similar to icon's progression. All 3 0Z runs so far are not far off on their low placements. Playing into bias the NAM is extra juiced like usual. look at last 3 runs, and you can see the SE progression, albeit slight, its there. 2 more ticks, and BOOM. We still have time good/bad for that to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: look at last 3 runs, and you can see the SE progression, albeit slight, its there. 2 more ticks, and BOOM. We still have time good/bad for that to happen. I do not want to step on any Met's toes but would it surprise anyone at this point if that northern vort really did minor out and the southern vort takes over even farther south than the Nam or GFS show it. Definitely a convoluted situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Cmc colder, further south, not great but close for us on th fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Here is the 0z GFS 10-1 & Kuchera: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JTrout said: Cmc colder, further south, not great but close for us on th fringe. CMC snow map. Again use with caution as there is mixing in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: CMC snow map. Again use with caution as there is mixing in the LSV. Canadian is MUCH improved from its 12z run. At 12z it had 5 inches at Harrisburg, but now at 0z it doubled it & has 10 ! Here is another Canadian snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Let’s hope the UKMET & Euro keep the good momentum going ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The fact that it is snowing right now will make it easier to stay up for the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Canadian is MUCH improved from its 12z run. At 12z it had 5 inches at Harrisburg, but now at 0z it doubled it & has 10 ! Here is another Canadian snow map.Lancaster County has a gradient that goes from 1”-9”. Horst forecast could bust in opposite ways within a 20 mile radius of his location . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 So it is snowing right now, probably going to snow again in 48 hours...cannot possibly again next week, can it? Front stalls after the early week cutter and this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I do not want to step on any Met's toes but would it surprise anyone at this point if that northern vort really did minor out and the southern vort takes over even farther south than the Nam or GFS show it. Definitely a convoluted situation. and we forgot the "normal" N/S shifts yet to come inside of 36 hours. We see it every storm. I beat this drum because those of us in KPIT and LSV are this close to something notably more/better. Not saying it to say "i told you so". We all come here to chat/discuss/learn and even us weenies have seen enough to know that we are getting closer...and not just in time. Tomorrow might be a less than productive day for me/many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 18, 2019 Author Share Posted January 18, 2019 17 minutes ago, JTrout said: Cmc colder, further south, not great but close for us on th fringe. Just saw that. You said it well. Nice 0z runs tonight. Unfortunately, while theres enough time for more movement, we are likely getting pretty close to LP path. Wouldnt expect big surprises from here in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I think (tongue in cheek) in situations like this, local meteorologist should put out a likely accumulation table for different local locations based upon the time you “hear the pingers”. I.e.Start time: 5PMpingers start at: 9PM. 2-4”pingers start at: 11PM. 4-6”Etc. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Just saw that. You said it well. Nice 0z runs tonight. Unfortunately, while theres enough time for more movement, we are likely getting pretty close to LP path. Wouldnt expect big surprises from here in. Fine. I said it. The NAM has the correct LP path!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Not so sure a solution shown by the NAVGEM, just not as extreme, should be totally disregarded at this point. That is not necessarily good for us as it could be weaker and south but the Nam and Icon have been toying around with the early transfer idea for a couple days now. If we had true arctic air in place, not just lingering near the US border, this thing would probably be bouncing down to Florida at this point and we would be praying for a phase instead of against it. Edit-The idea here is little to no phase just a juicy area of qpf traversing the mid and south US. Highly unlikely at this close of a range but no phase is no phase... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 UK maybe a tad south. This would still be a big mix in LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just took my midnight reading for snowfall and I'm now up to 1.3" with light snow falling. I guess there really is a shot of reaching 2.0" by morning looking at the fairly full radar to the west. Not bad. Temp not budging from 27.1 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Just took my midnight reading for snowfall and I'm now up to 1.3" with light snow falling. I guess there really is a shot of reaching 2.0" by morning looking at the fairly full radar to the west. Not bad. Temp not budging from 27.1 degrees. I think most schools are delaying two hours so the storm did its deed. This 1-2 snow has been consistently called on everything, except the hdprs, for a week now so lets give some credit to the short rangers. The hate I see for the Nam is so misguided at times as well. I do not want to go into any split model battle with the Nam against me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just noticed NWS extended WWA until 4:00 AM, otherwise no changes to WSW verbiage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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