Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Now it just needs to keep sliding along Blue Mountain and I'm set. At 40 mph it should be here in about 20 -30 minutes. Moving a bit NE so I think you see it in 10-15. Just left a coating here. Part II of the first part is just behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Steady snow started here around 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sounds like Steven DiMartino is echoing MAG's sentiment. https://nynjpaweather.com/latest-snowfall-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Expanded east, they think it will hold together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, daxx said: It looks like the fv3 came in better with front end thump for Saturday. It is not out on TT yet. Rgem is and it is wet or icy with 2M up in N Pa. I am not sure I remember any Canadian run being at the front of a trend too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: Expanded east, they think it will hold together Is that box a SWS box? I've never seen that before LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, JTrout said: Expanded east, they think it will hold together I will hold out hope...lol. Actually it's not doing anything here as of this very moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Is that box a SWS box? I've never seen that before LOL I didn't draw it haha. Just added advisories for tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: From what I've read, it was the JMA that sniffed out '96 first. We know the NAM has scored it's coups... I wonder if the NavGem has ever been first to the party with anything? I know its not considered much other than for consensus...if your looking for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Is that box a SWS box? I've never seen that before LOL Yea they're trying to be more proactive with sending out special weather statements. Typically for snow squalls although I guess this would kind of qualify, plus it's evening rush hour. Speaking of statements, the winter storm watch is one of the more strongly worded ones I've seen recently. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 518 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-180630- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick 518 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13 inches, with localized amounts up to 17 inches, and ice accumulations of around one tenth are possible. * WHERE...Through Central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph could cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Trying to keep the good vibes going the GFS is actually not that bad on the front end. Supports the WSW issued. Take an inch or so off this to account for tonight but Lancaster county is surprising good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: What the hell here goes: LNS 2 to 5...to ice MDT 4 to 6 to ice IPT: 6 to 9 to sleet UNV: 7 to 11 to sleet AOO: 7 to 10 to sleet BFD: 12 to 16 all snow Nice work. I'd bump you to 9-12, but otherwise, well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 What a surprise with the sudden WWA for our area that just came out. Only goes until midnight...less than 7 hours long. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: First flurries have arrived here. Temp 29.8. I drug the snow east when heading back from Shippensburg U. I looked left and waived from 81....you didnt waive back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: What a surprise with the sudden WWA for our area that just came out. Only goes until midnight...less than 7 hours long. So in the end we got our double WWA/WSW anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea they're trying to be more proactive with sending out special weather statements. Typically for snow squalls although I guess this would kind of qualify, plus it's evening rush hour. Speaking of statements, the winter storm watch is one of the more strongly worded ones I've seen recently. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 518 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-180630- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia- Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick 518 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13 inches, with localized amounts up to 17 inches, and ice accumulations of around one tenth are possible. * WHERE...Through Central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph could cause areas of blowing and drifting snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is the potential for significant winter weather that may impact travel. Continue to monitor forecasts and review winter weather safety and preparedness information at weather.gov/winter. happy for you....I really am..... sniff sniff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I drug the snow east when heading back from Shippensburg U. I looked left and waived from 81....you didnt waive back. HAHA. Sorry, Nut. Have been stuck to the forum nearly all day long. How ridiculous is that? Let me know the next time you're passing by so we can meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm sorry you were in Shippensburg, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 As feared...the original leading edge of the squall is breaking down just before arriving here. Although it looks like something almost as intense might be trying to form behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: happy for you....I really am..... sniff sniff. Haha well still gotta get to the finish line. I am concerned about mixing taking the top end off of accumulations in the AOO-UNV corridor. Confident on getting to 6" but we'll see about double digits. November's storm was somewhat similar, mixing was supposed take over.. which eventually did but it stayed mainly a snow/sleet mix and we got to 10.5". In that one the damage had been done on the front end anyways, where I had over 3 inches in an hour at the height. This storm could/should have similar intense precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Trying to keep the good vibes going the GFS is actually not that bad on the front end. Supports the WSW issued. Take an inch or so off this to account for tonight but Lancaster county is surprising good. Well, once again I’m left wishing you central pa folks luck... I will be drinking heavily Saturday...this is still better though than watching DC get their 20th foot plus storm this century. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, KPITSnow said: Well, once again I’m left wishing you central pa folks luck... I will be drinking heavily Saturday...this is still better though than watching DC get their 20th foot plus storm this century. I actually check every map and think of you, at least the last day, before posting it. We are just as likely to get a lot of rain as snow right now ourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, daxx said: It looks like the fv3 came in better with front end thump for Saturday. Well TT is stuck loading the FV3 but I can see 2M temps at 60 and they are in the 50's in the eastern part of the LSV so not going to hold my breath on the other panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Trying to keep the good vibes going the GFS is actually not that bad on the front end. Supports the WSW issued. Take an inch or so off this to account for tonight but Lancaster county is surprising good. One thing the GFS did was really smooth out the amounts from border to border...instead of 2" at the southern border to 22" at the New York line, there's only a 7" or so disparity. That doesn't seem right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CTP updated the Winter Storm Watch down here from 2"-5" to 3"-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CTP updated the Winter Storm Watch down here from 2"-5" to 3"-5". Surprisingly getting better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Front thump, pinger pounder, then glaze galore. Maybe a tad of powder on the backside, but that seldom materializes in these parts. 1030-1040+ across S Canada to the maritimes, and with a tad less phasing, this will be one ugly situation for KMDT and vicinity. Cold will likely hold at the surface. I've seen it before many times...and God willing, I'll see it many times yet with my time on this earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The band that had the special weather statement issued, now has some meat to it. Has it performed for anyone? I go stuck at work(Lancaster) its not here yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Finally have almost moderate snow with a solid dusting on the board. Took forever to get started. Temp down to 29.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: The band that had the special weather statement issued, now has some meat to it. Has it performed for anyone? I go stuck at work(Lancaster) its not here yet. Picked up 0.5” in a hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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