paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, daxx said: It's fun to look at the nam but it is borderline silly to even take it serious for the Saturday storm. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Nam isn't to kind to the LVS...Yuck Crazyweatherguy (from twitter) said this morning that is was foolish to be watching the models for the weekend storm BEFORE tomorrow morning's runs. It's ridiculous the roller coaster ride of these models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 looking at model trends the last couple of days, and now the 00z nam, I have to admit, the all snow/snow ice line model trend i think is starting to settle in somewhere from about I-84 near Port Jervis to the Wyoming Valley, State College, Latrobe, and Washington PA. but given past storms, I wouldn't be surprised if it sinks a bit further south. but the weaker system moving through Friday looks like it will set the tone where that snow/mix line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: It's fun to look at the nam but it is borderline silly to even take it serious for the Saturday storm. I think it is good for trends and within a day or two of an event, which we are not at now, I will take it over anything else except maybe the HRRR. It's QPF totals are usually too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Daxx...you might be up doing the PBP by yourself later...lol. Don't feel obligated on our part, especially while on vacation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I think it is good for trends and within a day or two of an event, which we are not at now, I will take it over anything else except maybe the HRRR. It's QPF totals are usually too high. I look at the nam for thermals that's about it. Especially this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: NAM is showing less than 0.10" total qpf. That's drier than earlier runs. Not that I care whether I get 1" or 2" with the prospect of the weekend storm. One other thing I remembered about noteworthy sleet storms in my life. The 1993 superstorm was a huge sleet producer for me in north Jersey. After accumulating 13" of snow there was heavy heavy sleet for hours. Had to be 6" of sleet from that storm easily. The Icon is also very dry now for tomorrow night. If GFS shows similar there may not be a WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Jim Marusak said: looking at model trends the last couple of days, and now the 00z nam, I have to admit, the all snow/snow ice line model trend i think is starting to settle in somewhere from about I-84 near Port Jervis to the Wyoming Valley, State College, Latrobe, and Washington PA. but given past storms, I wouldn't be surprised if it sinks a bit further south. but the weaker system moving through Friday looks like it will set the tone where that snow/mix line sets up. Thanks Jim for sharing your thoughts! Tonight it appears the Nam & the GFS are drinking the same Koolaid . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Amusing panel from the 48 RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I fully expect the gfs to give the LSV nearly all plain rain. It’s what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Daxx...you might be up doing the PBP by yourself later...lol. Don't feel obligated on our part, especially while on vacation! Sounds good. See you tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon is still a raging ice storm for the weekend. QPF is off the map high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, pawatch said: Thanks Jim for sharing your thoughts! Tonight it appears the Nam & the GFS are drinking the same Koolaid . actually, the GFS seemed to be the outlier after the 18Z runs, and the 00Z seems to also be there. The 12Z Euro, at least from weather.us, shows a similar precip type pattern to the 00Z NAM, albeit a bit further south than the NAM. at least to me, the GFS is the one that is drinking some rather nasty spiked kool aid, and should be discounted. even the 12Z GGem was starting to come towards being inline with the euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If this is wrong... I don’t want to be right ! The I-81 crew & north of that would take this & run ! I'm sure they would... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Jim Marusak said: actually, the GFS seemed to be the outlier after the 18Z runs, and the 00Z seems to also be there. The 12Z Euro, at least from weather.us, shows a similar precip type pattern to the 00Z NAM, albeit a bit further south than the NAM. at least to me, the GFS is the one that is drinking some rather nasty spiked kool aid, and should be discounted. even the 12Z GGem was starting to come towards being inline with the euro. Yea, the apparent disdain for the Nam is surprising to me. I fully expect the GFS to change drastically each run and never expect any consistency from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Tropical Tidbits snow maps are notorious for showing excessive snow totals below what would be the mixing line. It says right on the map "includes sleet", and we know sleet doesn't accumulate anywhere near a 10:1 ratio. Here's Accuweather's 24 hour with Kuchera. That's probably a more accurate representation of accums given the p-type arrangement that the NAM had. Just using as an example really.. the only thing I really took from the NAM at this range is that it kept the low below PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Tropical Tidbits snow maps are notorious for showing excessive snow totals below what would be the mixing line. It says right on the map "includes sleet", and we know sleet doesn't accumulate anywhere near a 10:1 ratio. Here's Accuweather's 24 hour with Kuchera. That's probably a more accurate representation of accums given the p-type arrangement that the NAM had. Just using as an example really.. the only thing I really took from the NAM at this range is that it kept the low below PA. Wow...just a little different than some of the other maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Tropical Tidbits snow maps are notorious for showing excessive snow totals below what would be the mixing line. It says right on the map "includes sleet", and we know sleet doesn't accumulate anywhere near a 10:1 ratio. Here's Accuweather's 24 hour with Kuchera. That's probably a more accurate representation of accums given the p-type arrangement that the NAM had. Just using as an example really.. the only thing I really took from the NAM at this range is that it kept the low below PA. Thanks you for some explanation. That snow map did not at all match the column and 2M temps the NAM showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Tropical Tidbits snow maps are notorious for showing excessive snow totals below what would be the mixing line. It says right on the map "includes sleet", and we know sleet doesn't accumulate anywhere near a 10:1 ratio. Here's Accuweather's 24 hour with Kuchera. That's probably a more accurate representation of accums given the p-type arrangement that the NAM had. Just using as an example really.. the only thing I really took from the NAM at this range is that it kept the low below PA. That would be brutal....I’ll jump into the Allegheny, mon, and Ohio in the same night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 i have to get to bed in a little bit with work in the morning. but one thing that I am noting with some of the storm tracks and what the model profiles are showing. you may want to keep an eye on the cPk air mass up in Quebec. something about this setup is starting to look a bit like Valentine's Day 2007. but I am hoping the trend is slowly south. Otherwise, you may want to start thinking of staying off I-78 between the Lehigh Valley and Ft Indiantown Gap during this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I will laugh my ass off if Sunday night MDT has <2” snow. Like, really, I’ll laugh for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: I will laugh my ass off if Sunday night MDT has <2” snow. Like, really, I’ll laugh for hours. And if they do you nailed it 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: I will laugh my ass off if Sunday night MDT has <2” snow. Like, really, I’ll laugh for hours. What about if it's <2" snow AND 6" of sleet !? Jim just alluded to the point that the map might be starting to look like the VD 2007 sleetfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Does anyone know where these rankings for the numerical models are located or have the most recent list? Does it break it down into LR, MR and SR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS is better but still eventually tracks the low into PA so we lose most of the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS actually looks better, further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Well one encouraging sign is that there is a great mega thump in the first six hours of the storm with MDT picking up over 6" in 6 hours before a changeover. Wasn't expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Pivotal Weather has a Kuchera map too that is pretty easy to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Tomorrow night 2", Saturday afternoon 7". Total 9" using Kuchera. We have improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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