Central PA - Winter 2018-19

[canderson]

First of all, we all owe @daxx a huge amount of gratitude for his PBP. No drama, just pure data analysis. This thread is the best on this board for a reason. 

Now, I was as pessimist as anyone yesterday but if we can keep the south trend up today and Thursday night's event grows weaker and weaker ... then I'll get excited. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

First of all, we all owe @daxx a huge amount of gratitude for his PBP. No drama, just pure data analysis. This thread is the best on this board for a reason. 

Now, I was as pessimist as anyone yesterday but if we can keep the south trend up today and Thursday night's event grows weaker and weaker ... then I'll get excited. 

As I said on the previous page he's good peoples and he REALLY knows what he's talking about. I've been encouraging him to be more present and vocal on here for several years now. 

[Bubbler86]

12Z Nam is still game for a 6 hour snowfall tomorrow evening, starting 6-9PMish, and dropping 1-3". 

 

[paweather]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

First of all, we all owe @daxx a huge amount of gratitude for his PBP. No drama, just pure data analysis. This thread is the best on this board for a reason. 

Now, I was as pessimist as anyone yesterday but if we can keep the south trend up today and Thursday night's event grows weaker and weaker ... then I'll get excited. 

Thanks again Daxx. 

[MAG5035]

We seem to be faced with this type of scenario at least once or twice a winter.. a moisture laden storm system approaching from the MS and OH Valleys with the potential for significant winter impacts, where eventual track is key to whatever wintry or non wintry scenario we end up with. Without much Greenland or Canadian blocking available, this thing can cut it if phases early/too much.. which makes it a touchy setup. Thus, I'm pretty surprised at the specific details being thrown out by forecasting sources at this point of the game.. be it playing with D5 snowmaps showing 20-30+ in the viewing area, NWS discussion throwing out actual numbers in the long term section for this storm, or stating LSV is getting a big rainstorm. None of those things are anywhere near a certainty right now. I've been approaching this storm as of the variety where winter impacts are likely, but specific details are not going to be resolved for another couple days. 

With all that said, even with the scenario where the low cuts just west or through PA... there is likely going to be front end wintry issues to be had in the form of front end snow and ice. Not the most ideal CAD setup but it's certainly workable with plenty of cold available and mid-late Jan climo on our side. The center of high pressure is modeled above MN/upper lakes, but the high pressure sprawls across the rest of eastern Canada. I find it unlikely right now that anyone in our subforum would see a straight rainstorm from this whether it cuts or not. Overnight model runs seemed to start coming back a bit from looking decidedly more wet yesterday so we'll see if they start getting under PA more. If the low pressure does skirt underneath most of PA or secondary development to the coast occurs this will be a significant snow and ice storm for most if not all of the subforum. 

[kdskidoo]

I guess my bar is set higher than most in here when it comes to ranking snowstorms.  I would classify them as follows:

less than 3" minor/nuisance

3-6"" moderate

6 -12" significant

12-20" major

20-30" crippling

30-40" historic

anything above 40" biblical

 

[Wmsptwx]

3 to 6 mod

6 to 10 sig

10 to 16 mecs

16+ Historic

24+ bib

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

I guess my bar is set higher than most in here when it comes to ranking snowstorms.  I would classify them as follows:

less than 3" minor/nuisance

3-6"" moderate

6 -12" significant

12-20" major

20-30" crippling

30-40" historic

anything above 40" biblical

 

Actually I think your categories and amounts are very good. I like the "Crippling" designation as it makes sense to have something between major and historic. 

[daxx]

Thanks for the kind words guys. I'm thinking tomorrow at 12z we start taking models more serious.   For now it's good to see good trends.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, daxx said:

Thanks for the kind words guys. I'm thinking tomorrow at 12z we start taking models more serious.   For now it's good to see good trends.

And that's because by that time all of the pieces are on shore? 

[Cashtown_Coop]

13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We seem to be faced with this type of scenario at least once or twice a winter.. a moisture laden storm system approaching from the MS and OH Valleys with the potential for significant winter impacts, where eventual track is key to whatever wintry or non wintry scenario we end up with. Without much Greenland or Canadian blocking available, this thing can cut it if phases early/too much.. which makes it a touchy setup. Thus, I'm pretty surprised at the specific details being thrown out by forecasting sources at this point of the game.. be it playing with D5 snowmaps showing 20-30+ in the viewing area, NWS discussion throwing out actual numbers in the long term section for this storm, or stating LSV is getting a big rainstorm. None of those things are anywhere near a certainty right now. I've been approaching this storm as of the variety where winter impacts are likely, but specific details are not going to be resolved for another couple days. 

With all that said, even with the scenario where the low cuts just west or through PA... there is likely going to be front end wintry issues to be had in the form of front end snow and ice. Not the most ideal CAD setup but it's certainly workable with plenty of cold available and mid-late Jan climo on our side. The center of high pressure is modeled above MN/upper lakes, but the high pressure sprawls across the rest of eastern Canada. I find it unlikely right now that anyone in our subforum would see a straight rainstorm from this whether it cuts or not. Overnight model runs seemed to start coming back a bit from looking decidedly more wet yesterday so we'll see if they start getting under PA more. If the low pressure does skirt underneath most of PA or secondary development to the coast occurs this will be a significant snow and ice storm for most if not all of the subforum. 

Couldn’t say it any better

[Atomixwx]

20 minutes ago, canderson said:

First of all, we all owe @daxx a huge amount of gratitude for his PBP. No drama, just pure data analysis. This thread is the best on this board for a reason. 

Now, I was as pessimist as anyone yesterday but if we can keep the south trend up today and Thursday night's event grows weaker and weaker ... then I'll get excited. 

I had to check myself yesterday after a bad day, but this happens with every major storm. Model prints out monsterous solution, waffles to minimal impact, and eventually comes around to close to the initial solution or exactly there. I am not saying this is going to be the case, but I'd be willing to bet (we can audit this via the old threads, my memory is fading anymore) that over the past three or so weekend blockbusters, Wednesday and Thursday were when the tide of rain was washed away. 

The Weather Channel in particular is seemingly going all-in on this one. I'll begin sounding the alarm if/when Horst comes around.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Atomixwx said:

I had to check myself yesterday after a bad day, but this happens with every major storm. Model prints out monsterous solution, waffles to minimal impact, and eventually comes around to close to the initial solution or exactly there. I am not saying this is going to be the case, but I'd be willing to bet (we can audit this via the old threads, my memory is fading anymore) that over the past three or so weekend blockbusters, Wednesday and Thursday were when the tide of rain was washed away. 

The Weather Channel in particular is seemingly going all-in on this one. I'll begin sounding the alarm if/when Horst comes around.

If you watch the Weather Channel's predicted motion for the weekend storm I swear it goes directly over MDT.

That wouldn't be good for us. 

[Bubbler86]

The NAM is driving the weekend system a bit further North and West unfortunately.  Lots of people say to not take the NAM seriously beyond 48 but last evening it was one of the first to show a less phased system and it has backed off that thought. 

[anotherman]

Sounds like the NAM is phasing with the NS.

[Bubbler86]

The Nams final result (up to 84) is not bad for us but how it got there seems to be questionable...it almost retrogrades the SLP.

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

NAM is north. We do start as snow...

[daxx]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And that's because by that time all of the pieces are on shore? 

I'm not really a big fan of the on shore theory.  I'm sure some people might disagree. I just think we will be inside 48 hours of the onset of this and models will be keyed in better. Even then there are shifts but you know that. Lol

[anotherman]

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, daxx said:

I'm not really a big fan of the on shore theory.  I'm sure some people might disagree. I just think we will be inside 48 hours of the onset of this and models will be keyed in better. Even then there are shifts but you know that. Lol

True that. Like anything else on the web you're bound to find someone who says what you want or don't want to hear. Sometimes it's hard to separate factual information from stuff in the annals of the weather weenie handbook. 

[Superstorm]

 
 
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[Superstorm]

I didn't have one last winter, but that was kind of my point. I'm being a little too soft on that designation. 

MU had 19” from that March Storm


.

[Voyager]

35 minutes ago, kdskidoo said:

I guess my bar is set higher than most in here when it comes to ranking snowstorms.  I would classify them as follows:

less than 3" minor/nuisance

3-6"" moderate

6 -12" significant

12-20" major

20-30" crippling

30-40" historic

anything above 40" biblical

 

This is EXACTLY how I would grade storms. I've never seen a 30+ inch storm (in my backyard anyway) so that would be historic. The over 40 biblical designation is spot on, too, as even in the biggest of storms, our region just doesn't (save one or two locations) ever really hit that number.

As for me, 26 inches is the most I've seen from one storm.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Superstorm said:

MU had 19” from that March Storm


.

I'm going to have to check my records at home. I believe you...I must be confused with a previous winter. 

I'm 53. Yeah, that's my excuse. 

[Superstorm]

I'm going to have to check my records at home. I believe you...I must be confused with a previous winter. 
I'm 53. Yeah, that's my excuse. 

It was 17.5”




.

[Bubbler86]

I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

It was 17.5”




.

Funny, I remember that now! And I'll still check but I believe I recorded either 14" or 14.5" at home. I know for certain that I had less than MU. 

[daxx]

10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.

I'm sure you will take the 12z icon. Snow, ice and some rain.North and west pounded!

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

I think we are going to need some fancy stuff to happen with the Icon as well as it is north of Texas with the SLP at 60.

Any word on what happened with it? 

[JTrout]

12z Icon gives LSV three frames of front end snow before the switch to crap. More like yesterdays early runs. NAM at 84 looks to give a good front end thump as well.