daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: So 2" seems to be the call of the day from NAM, RGEM and Icon. That's total qpf for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, daxx said: That's total qpf for both. Ah, I did say qpf. My fault. I noted in an edit that some of that on the weekend is snow on the icon but seems to have trended a but more wet vs. 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Ah, I did say qpf. My fault. I noted in an edit that some of that on the weekend is snow on the icon but seems to have trended a but more wet vs. 12Z. After precip starts Saturday 2m temps never go above freezing on icon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, daxx said: After precip starts Saturday 2m temps never go above freezing on icon. Thanks, I still cannot see everything on TT just saw the radar and the 850 line pushing quite far north. Keeps things interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gfs looking good for Thursday night 1to3. Some lucky spots might see 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 5 minutes ago, daxx said: Gfs looking good for Thursday night 1to3. Some lucky spots might see 4. If no one has said it recently, thanks for sharing this early info especially the EC updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Henry Margusity just tweeted the GFS. I'm busy. Did it flip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: If no one has said it recently, thanks for sharing this early info especially the EC updates. Not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Henry Margusity just tweeted the GFS. I'm busy. Did it flip? It is not good for us on the weekend...at least for frozen. It is the anti-cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nevermind. Twitter just fed me a 23 hour old "new post." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm not saying anything. I'll let the maps tell the story.... 12z icon surface at 120 18z icon surface...same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 next frame 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z 2m 18z 2m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 What i will say, is I'm not convinced of anything for weekend yet. Look at the HP. It held ground a bit better for the Germans. While I put little stock in it, it keeps my eyes turned. and for those in the MA who were digging out from the 5 day earlier rainstorm, thats all I'm getting at. Flow at 500 a little less ridgy, so flatter progression helps us on the fringe....lunatic fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: GFS is ugly. but a little better at 500 and 700. 850's still cooked, but a tick better than 12z. Taken verbatim, would argue for a little improvement at surface. Yes, I'm scraping for scraps down here. I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, pasnownut said: but a little better at 500 and 700. 850's still cooked, but a tick better than 12z. Taken verbatim, would argue for a little improvement at surface. Yes, I'm scraping for scraps down here. I know I personally do not think you are on to scraps. You have several models staying all frozen Saturday so it is something to consider. I was really looking forward to a big all snow event...on the weekend so travel is not as disrupted, etc...so that is why I feel a bit down about this right now. I accidentally clicked on the NY forum a bit ago and the words Ben Stiller flashed in front of my face...they are talking about the Thunder mode (Tropic Thunder joke) l in their forum so they going through the same thing as us despite being in the bulleye (though GFS is going to rain on some of them as well). EDIT-GFS also has a coastal for mid week next week...apps runner transfers over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 bubbler posted this map earlier but on the total US view. Here it is zoomed in to our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I personally do not think you are on to scraps. You have several models staying all frozen Saturday so it is something to consider. I was really looking forward to a big all snow event...on the weekend so travel is not as disrupted, etc...so that is why I feel a bit down about this right now. I accidentally clicked on the NY forum a bit ago and the words Ben Stiller flashed in front of my face...they are talking about the Thunder mode (Tropic Thunder joke) l in their forum so they going through the same thing as us despite being in the bulleye (though GFS is going to rain on some of them as well). EDIT-GFS also has a coastal for mid week next week...apps runner transfers over. Mind you, I'm hugging foreigners, and pissed as the home team models (NAM still beyond extrapolation mode). I do feel there is a twinge of atmospheric memory voodo in the meteo card deck, as we've seen it in the past w/ evolution and where it wants to snow in a given year. 500 flow on most models is west of us, but any further flattening of the flow, and HP working its magic as some models suggest, at least give my argument a pinch of validity and keep us in some form of frozen. If we thump then ice I'm totally fine with it, as I know we likely cannot correct for the big snow you (and I) both want. I'm trying to find our way out of gully washers....sorta had our fill eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Fv3 says yo nut, how'dya want that goose cooked....lol score 1 for the team Rainers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 53 minutes ago, pasnownut said: What i will say, is I'm not convinced of anything for weekend yet. Look at the HP. It held ground a bit better for the Germans. While I put little stock in it, it keeps my eyes turned. and for those in the MA who were digging out from the 5 day earlier rainstorm, thats all I'm getting at. Flow at 500 a little less ridgy, so flatter progression helps us on the fringe....lunatic fringe. Long way to go ! Real Artic air tends to push its way around. The preceding air mass before the event is a normal January air mass which is plenty cold. We do Not have an intensifying low bombing out towards the Great Lakes. The existing cold will more than likely hold much longer than modeled & the new arctic air mass will likely flex its muscles to push this storm further south. Just like our November storm, if precip arrives in a wall of heavy precip, we could put down a solid several inch front end thump. Remember that storm was supposed to mix with ice & then go to plain rain ? Also, the heavy snow currently on the non- supportive models is not too far to the north right now. We also DO still have model support for heavy snow with the 2nd best model for a few runs in a row with the UKMET. I also just saw that the ICON is looking good for snow. The Euro on Sunday afternoon had 2 feet of snow for the LSV & had us in the bullseye for a few runs prior. The GFS also had several runs a couple of days ago with us in the bullseye. This far from over ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Until the UKIE and ICON completely abandon their snow>ZR>end scenarios I am siding with you (nut) and not giving up hope for a more frozen solution. Like you said a decent snow over to zr then ending without it ever going to plain rain is totally acceptable. As others have said, the zr coating locks in the cold and slows down the melting process tremendously. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Until the UKIE and ICON completely abandon their snow>ZR>end scenarios I am siding with you (nut) and not giving up hope for a more frozen solution. Like you said a decent snow over to zr then ending without it ever going to plain rain is totally acceptable. As others have said, the zr coating locks in the cold and slows down the melting process tremendously. I’m on this team too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Long way to go ! Real Artic air tends to push its way around. The preceding air mass before the event is a normal January air mass which is plenty cold. We do Not have an intensifying low bombing out towards the Great Lakes. The existing cold will more than likely hold much longer than modeled & the new arctic air mass will likely flex its muscles to push this storm further south. Just like our November storm, if precip arrives in a wall of heavy precip, we could put down a solid several inch front end thump. Remember that storm was supposed to mix with ice & then go to plain rain ? Also, the heavy snow currently on the non- supportive models is not too far to the north right now. We also DO still have model support for heavy snow with the 2nd best model for a few runs in a row with the UKMET. I also just saw that the ICON is looking good for snow. The Euro on Sunday afternoon had 2 feet of snow for the LSV & had us in the bullseye for a few runs prior. The GFS also had several runs a couple of days ago with us in the bullseye. This far from over ! Hey Blizz...you're about to hit your first forum milestone. I'm only 5 posts behind you so we'll both hit it tonight most likely. So congrats to both of us! I was wondering what JB has had to say about the weekend setup. Is there anything you are able to share with us from him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 CMC would probably be a decent hit if you excuse it for ushering out the cold air too fast. Blocks the low/or transfers south and takes it south of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, anotherman said: GFS is ugly. To me right now it looks like outlier track wise...It looks furthest north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 33 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Hey Blizz...you're about to hit your first forum milestone. I'm only 5 posts behind you so we'll both hit it tonight most likely. So congrats to both of us! I was wondering what JB has had to say about the weekend setup. Is there anything you are able to share with us from him? That reminds, it seems the post counts were reset at some point. Maybe in the last 5 years or 6 years, they reset for at least some people. Does anyone know what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 hours ago, canderson said: A few days ago I joked we'd get more snow Thursday night than all weekend. Turns out, that's looking to be right. I think you are going to be right on this one...at least for those of us in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 37 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Hey Blizz...you're about to hit your first forum milestone. I'm only 5 posts behind you so we'll both hit it tonight most likely. So congrats to both of us! I was wondering what JB has had to say about the weekend setup. Is there anything you are able to share with us from him? That’s great- Congrats as well! This place has been buzzing with activity the last few days. Let’s keep it going! As for JB, in this mornings video, he thought some of the modeled snow totals seemed too high. He thought CTP would land in the 3-6 inch snow range followed by Ice & rain to the south & east. He said it all depends on the second wave. If that develops as the Artic cold arrives, the snow totals especially to the south & east would increase. He didn’t think a large snowfall for our area was on the table because of a short term EPO spike this weekend. He is very optimistic about the overall pattern moving forward & thinks all of us will end up with above average snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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