Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut
 Share

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Lol, looks like UKMET shifted 200 miles north.


.

And it includes the snow from Thursday night so basically little to no weekend snow.  I would rather this cut into Chicago not see all that rain. Cold heavy rain is worse than some showers and 50's.   These changes have been so drastic that it almost lends to us waiting on calling it as drastic changes means lack of model verification usually. 

 

 

Williamsport is still in the game for the Euro. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  1. (1/2) Given the media (and social media) buzz about the weekend storm...I present brief and measured update. NO, a blizzard is not likely to hit the big cities of I-95...in fact, a thunderstorm is more likely! The interior Northeast is a different story as...

     
  2. (2/2) ...a crushing snowfall is likely from northern PA, interior NY (mostly rain in NYC), VT, and most of inland NH & ME. Here in the SusQ Valley...the inland track and lack of blocking means likely a brief period of snow/mix changing to heavy rain, possibly ending as snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I don’t know if you can write this off yet. The reason Ukmet is south is no phase with the northern stream. Jma and I know the deep thunder model now support it to some extent. Look at the UKMET and GFS.

 

 

Thanks for keeping things alive here.  The JMA is certainly nothing like the Euro or GFS but it does at least take the 850 line up to State College or more...probably a more frozen than wet storm though!

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is what I am trying to say you still have to camps. Southern and northern look at the ensembles. You can see on the GEFS and GEPS you have less interaction with the TPV. The Euro run was actually a huge improvement with less interaction with the TPV. Can the UKMET be leading the way. Could be all for nothing but worth watching.

4F64D388-0066-42CC-8F1A-B6298590D13F.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I’m thinking the writing is on the wall for the weekend system.

But something tells me the Ukie might be on to something. I would have thought it would have caved to the Euro and GFS but it is holding its ground firmly.

Seasonal trends have been confluence driven and this would be the first to phase.


.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...