Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Non storm related, but somebody needs to tell our boy at WGAL that he needs to find out who in their office is posting Thanksgiving recipes online in January and ask them how much they've had to drink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS says "Not so fast PA/NY line for first part of weekend storm. Still gives 2-4 Thur night and somewhere in the 4-8" range on a front thump for Saturday before the warm comes rushing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 0Z ICON shows a real thumping of snow late Saturday afternoon until wee-hours followed by a brief but heavy period of freezing rain for several hours, then a quick switch back to light snow and ending before noon. There doesn't appear to be a 2-wave solution so far but I could easily be misreading it. Temps never get close to freezing during the freezing rain portion...they're in the mid 20's before falling off dramatically behind the arctic front. >>Edit>>I forgot to mention that it also shows single digit lows near zero Monday morning and sub zero down to -5F at MDT Tuesday morning as a large 1040 High is centered directly over PA 12Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 hours ago, Atomixwx said: I'm sorry, but this is irresponsible as hell. I don't care if the purpose of the video is just to get people talking. There's a ton of dumbshits in WTAJ's coverage area. They don't know any better. This is just bad. Well if that isn't the most immature thing I've ever seen. Not saying the euro is wrong this far out...but totally irresponsible to show it like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I did come up a little over half inch short of three inches on saturdays event . I was out all night sat/sun and ended up with a toothache of a life time that is still kicking my ass. I need to get some dental work done on friday so I might end up on the couch this weekend with a bottle of 7/325 or hopefully lost in the snowy woods with an empty bottle and missing teeth . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS showing 3" for Thursday and 8" for the weekend. looks like something next Wednesday or Thursday too. gonna be fun times ahead, Buckle the chin straps and lace up those boots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug. That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 hours ago, bubbler86 said: GFS says "Not so fast PA/NY line for first part of weekend storm. Still gives 2-4 Thur night and somewhere in the 4-8" range on a front thump for Saturday before the warm comes rushing in. What time frame is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, pawatch said: What time frame is that? Missed that in my snip, apologies. That was an old run but here is the new one with a similar look for Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Horst is right: If there's no block, there's nothing to keep the warm from rushing in and washing it all away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Atomixwx said: Horst is right: If there's no block, there's nothing to keep the warm from rushing in and washing it all away. Bingo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 18 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug. That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined). UKMET for the win ! It looks like Euro & GFS runs from just a couple of days ago. Long way to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 50 minutes ago, sauss06 said: GFS showing 3" for Thursday and 8" for the weekend. looks like something next Wednesday or Thursday too. gonna be fun times ahead, Buckle the chin straps and lace up those boots. Yes sir ! The Euro weeklies looked great yet again last night. The good pattern should roll straight through the end of February. Lots of tracking ahead for us ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes sir ! The Euro weeklies looked great yet again last night. The good pattern should roll straight through the end of February. Lots of tracking ahead for us ! Yes - I believe a lot of us will end up disappointed this weekend if expecting big snows. However, it's just a matter of time until the block establishes itself and the real fun begins. There are going to be a lot of pretty model graphics with some big numbers on them in the coming weeks... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Yes - I believe a lot of us will end up disappointed this weekend if expecting big snows. However, it's just a matter of time until the block establishes itself and the real fun begins. There are going to be a lot of pretty model graphics with some big numbers on them in the coming weeks...I think we will all see accumulating snow, but as you said, we will be disappointed when it’s washed away.Just a stat padder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: I think the American models look less than optimistic for the two upcoming events so I wanted the forum to have something to hug. That looks like a 20 spot for Carlisle, Canderson and Sauss (storms combined). Wow. Cant say i expected that from the Ukie. What does the Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 28 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I think we will all see accumulating snow, but as you said, we will be disappointed when it’s washed away. Just a stat padder. . Just toggled through overnights for 2m air temps, and most stay in the mid/upper 30's in the LSV and slightly cooler in the central regions during warmest panels, and prior to arctic frontal passage. I'm hoping GFS warm bias is part of what were seeing, because if you cool them off just a pinch, its a much better result. (thats a blend of truth and weenie wishcasting). NAM stays in upper 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Just toggled through overnights for 2m air temps, and most stay in the mid/upper 30's in the LSV and slightly cooler in the central regions during warmest panels, and prior to arctic frontal passage. I'm hoping GFS warm bias is part of what were seeing, because if you cool them off just a pinch, its a much better result. (thats a blend of truth and weenie wishcasting). NAM stays in upper 20's The NAM goes out that far? I thought it only went to hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 And I shared what i did above, because those of us who "protect" our snow ultimately care at whats going on at surface, where our snow lives (Bob Rossism). I dont care about the mids after we get a front end thump, as long as I hold onto my white gold. Weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Wow. Cant say i expected that from the Ukie. What does the Euro show? I do not have Stormvista access so just limited 24 hour weenie panels but the 500MB and this 850 panels do not look great for ALL snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Listen, you can't see a Low cross over Frankfort and expect snow. You just can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The NAM goes out that far? I thought it only went to hour 84... lol. i was looking at wrong storm on NAM.... my bad. need more coffee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I do not have Stormvista access so just limited 24 hour weenie panels but the 500MB and this 850 panels do not look great for ALL snow. freebies on TT go from 120 to 144 and while both look good, there is likely a warm period in between, but if you look at them one can assume that the warmth is short in duration. Yes, likely a changeover period, but we just have to hope for front end thumpage and go from there. 144 looks like a brick in da face w/ the hounds of winter slammin us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 10 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Listen, you can't see a Low cross over Frankfort and expect snow. You just can't. Not sure anyone would debate that, though if you have a block or TPV close by a storm could go fairly parallel east and still slip under us, but some earlier model depictions had the LP farther south than KY so something to keep watching if model watching is an interesting sport to someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 It's only one run...storm hasn't even hit the west coast yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, pawatch said: It's only one run...storm hasn't even hit the west coast yet. Yep and i'm not bailing until Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Yep and i'm not bailing until Saturday morning. And if you have to bail Saturday AM some near streams might have to bail again Sunday AM after all the rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Yep and i'm not bailing until Saturday morning. Sunday fixed. If models are correct, thats time to bail water hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Sunday fixed. If models are correct, thats time to bail water hehe That was weird...we both thought of that. Ha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Sunday fixed. If models are correct, thats time to bail water hehe Maybe Ma nature doesn't realize its 2019, just carrying on that 2018 tradition, you know the song..........rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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