daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 You can really see the follow up showing on gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Gefs mean is definitely colder than the op. Have to wait for individuals. THAT is great news. Icon looks to be ticking south until right overhead, but early on it started better and has plenty of time for further tweaks. I'm liking Happy Hour so far....speaking of..wheres my beer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: 540's to central florida right after. Trough is headed for Cuba.... needless to say, whatever we can get in the next couple events, wont be going anywhere if that look holds. I am in Florida about one week per month. We saw about a 1/4" of snow in Ocala Circa 2010 (pic attached) and I think this February is going to be their best chance of seeing it again. Tampa and some of the Eastern Space Coast see Ocean Effect flurries all the time but I am referring to actual synoptic snow. This is a bit off topic but it is not during an active storm so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I am in Florida about one week per month. We saw about a 1/4" of snow in Ocala Circa 2010 (pic attached) and I think this February is going to be their best chance of seeing it again. Tampa and some of the Eastern Space Coast see Ocean Effect flurries all the time but I am referring to actual synoptic snow. This is a bit off topic but it is not during an active storm so... wow, thats crazy, and while part of me wants you to see it again, I like orange juice... :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Fv3 850's straddle the MD line for Thurs/Friday, and we only lose surface at tail end (ends as drizzle). I'd say it was a tick south w/ frozen from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: wow, thats crazy, and while part of me wants you to see it again, I like orange juice... :). North Central Florida went through a time of seemingly yearly extreme freezes (Temps between 10 and 15 degrees) in the 70's and 80's and the 1993 Storm of the Century that caused them to move most of the real producing Orange Groves toward Orlando and south so it is rare that oranges are actually damaged any more despite news reports of it. BUT those Euro weekly forecasts might change that. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: North Central Florida went through a time of seemingly yearly extreme freezes in the 70's and 80's (and the 1993 Storm of the Century) that caused them to move most of the real producing Orange Groves toward Orlando and south so it is rare that oranges are actually rare any more despite news reports of it. BUT those Euro weekly forecasts might change that. :-) I remember that, but didnt realize they relocated. Smart. in that case, let is snow for northern florida too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s Not wrap around back side snow. It is 2 weak waves of low pressure. The first one heads towards PA & gives us snow to mix to rain. The second wave develops to our south & rides up the coast as the Artic air arrives. There is a ton of moisture & the models will bounce around a few more days with the boundaries. I think many would sign up for this 18z GFS Kuchera ratio snow map. That would be a screw job for me if that happened...Looks like warm air right up to me for sleet. In this scenario i would get a couple inches of slop and state college would get 12+ Gonna be a long but fun week regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: To add on to this thought, models often over estimate 2M temps when there is snow cover involved. So IF we can get Thursday night to stay all powder it is going to take an incredible surge on Saturday night for the surface temps to break freezing. It can happen but snow cover will help any CAD stand its ground longer. Yes, there is good snow pack to our south. There is true Artic air pressing from the north & west. I think things will work out in our favor this weekend for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: and to your point, look at the HP in the NE during storm #1. It is SLIGHTLY stronger and holds just a bit longer to keep white from turning wet. Watch that HP in the next couple days, as it alone can bring us to the promise land. Yes, we are dealing with a pressing legit Artic air mass pressing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, 2001kx said: That would be a screw job for me if that happened...Looks like warm air right up to me for sleet. In this scenario i would get a couple inches of slop and state college would get 12+ Gonna be a long but fun week regardless. I'll trade you my storm #1 snow for your storm #2 snow, and I'll even throw in another small event next week or whenevs. You stand to get shellacked this weekend if the look holds. Y or N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 Fv3 does not dissapoint for #2 Snow/frozen line ticked SE but more backend action for us in the LSV. Still racks up some good accums as the second LP pops as Blizz suggested earlier and we get a good part 2 for #2 this weekend. Then keep hold of the reigns, as next week looks plenty active as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You people need to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 13 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You people need to slow down. This will slow us all down. Keep the airplanes down as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: I'll trade you my storm #1 snow for your storm #2 snow, and I'll even throw in another small event next week or whenevs. You stand to get shellacked this weekend if the look holds. Y or N No -I'll take my chances on the weekend storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 hours ago, Atomixwx said: My buddy told me that WTAJ in Altoona addressed both the GFS and EURO last night saying agreement on 20". MAG may be able to confirm that. I heard such things from somebody this evening, though didn't hear where it came from. I can at least confirm someone with a TV camera and/or social media must have been slinging out clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I heard such things from somebody this evening, though didn't hear where it came from. I can at least confirm someone with a TV camera and/or social media must have been slinging out clown maps. I found out what the deal was. It was Murgo on Facebook showing a graph of the GFS and Euro in agreement last night. Apparently it scared the natives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: This will slow us all down. Keep the airplanes down as well. Daaaaamn...that'd be balls cold 0_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'm sorry, but this is irresponsible as hell. I don't care if the purpose of the video is just to get people talking. There's a ton of dumbshits in WTAJ's coverage area. They don't know any better. This is just bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm sorry, but this is irresponsible as hell. I don't care if the purpose of the video is just to get people talking. There's a ton of dumbshits in WTAJ's coverage area. They don't know any better. This is just bad. I’m seeing people in this area sharing that like it’s fooking happening tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I found out what the deal was. It was Murgo on Facebook showing a graph of the GFS and Euro in agreement last night. Apparently it scared the natives. Oh boy, lol. He better hope we get every tenth of that 29.3... the natives can be pretty savage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I know bubbler just posted the map with the polar vortex paying us a visit...but really, you guys should go do a loop of either the gfs or gfsv3 18Z runs for 2M temps. They are insanely cold...particularly days 10 through 15. Daytime highs at MDT below +10 and nights below zero...well below until it reaches 13 below at the end of the run. This type of cold will exceed Jan 2015 cold IMO. Of course, throw in a few snowstorms to deepen the snowpack and you've got the recipe for 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 8 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I know bubbler just posted the map with the polar vortex paying us a visit...but really, you guys should go do a loop of either the gfs or gfsv3 18Z runs for 2M temps. They are insanely cold...particularly days 10 through 15. Daytime highs at MDT below +10 and nights below zero...well below until it reaches 13 below at the end of the run. This type of cold will exceed Jan 2015 cold IMO. Of course, throw in a few snowstorms to deepen the snowpack and you've got the recipe for 1994. Must. Get. To. Phoenix. lol... I doubt I can, but I sure do wish I could escape this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You guys are posting a ton about a rainstorm this weekend. Someone thoughshould check on Voyager, he might off himself with this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: You guys are posting a ton about a rainstorm this weekend. Someone thoughshould check on Voyager, he might off himself with this pattern. Apparently you just read his mind as he just posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 24 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I'm sorry, but this is irresponsible as hell. I don't care if the purpose of the video is just to get people talking. There's a ton of dumbshits in WTAJ's coverage area. They don't know any better. This is just bad. Wow. That IS bad. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 You guys are posting a ton about a rainstorm this weekend. Someone thoughshould check on Voyager, he might off himself with this pattern.It’s only part rainstorm, and trending colder. Could be a secondary wave that rides up the arctic front and nails us. Too close to not pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, anotherman said: It’s only part rainstorm, and trending colder. Could be a secondary wave that rides up the arctic front and nails us. Too close to not pay attention. I'm pretty sure he meant that tongue-and-cheek to tease Voyager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Poor Boston.....and Egg Harbor I guess. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'm pretty sure he meant that tongue-and-cheek to tease Voyager. I literally laughed out loud in the truck. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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