Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: It could go either way but I'm feeling good ole 6 to 10 area wide on this guy. I don't honestly know if that's possible. If you get that amount I'm getting little or no snow most likely. If I get that amount you're going over 1' with ease. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Except the last two big storms this winter . Pro Did i miss one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I'm torn on this weekend. As a weanie I want a monster storm but I also work all weekend so...yeah...also guess I'm one of the youngings at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't honestly know if that's possible. If you get that amount I'm getting little or no snow most likely. If I get that amount you're going over 1' with ease. Idk dude maps have good snows all way up to NY State line and south to LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Maps I saw posted in the MA forum show a lot of ice for the LSV after the front end 8-12" snow dump. Yeah, that works. One good thing is when we flip to ice we often dont lose too much, especially when we flip back to snow. Typically hold cold enough at the surface for us. With that said, I'll sign up for it verbatim and let all my northern peeps do snow angels while we ice skate :). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Idk dude maps have good snows all way up to NY State line and south to LSV. Yes they do but there's a big disparity between Lancaster county and the PA/NY border. That's my point - I don't think this will be evenly distributed or even close to it. I've seen nothing to suggest it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah, that works. One good thing is when we flip to ice we often dont lose too much, especially when we flip back to snow. Typically hold cold enough at the surface for us. With that said, I'll sign up for it verbatim and let all my northern peeps do snow angels while we ice skate :). This was a lot of ice though...if FRZA it is not something I want part of! Over 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I don't honestly know if that's possible. If you get that amount I'm getting little or no snow most likely. If I get that amount you're going over 1' with ease. He is just setting a low bar so he doesn't get disappointed. We know how that WSPT dude is. Then he quietly does face down snow angels to see his snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 12 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Did i miss one? late nov and yesterday both trended south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: He is just setting a low bar so he doesn't get disappointed. We know how that WSPT dude is. Then he quietly does face down snow angels to see his snow weenie Aww, no I was just being positive I thought lol I'm a novice, I just like to watch it fall then sled in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: late nov and yesterday both trended south i guess i was confused by the last "2" big ones. Bubbler, 1" of ice? That would suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 I can't wait until we get more snow Thursday night than this weekend. /ducks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 really disappointed. I'm missing several years from my weather notes. I don't have my info from the valentines storm. I tore my desk apart searching. so pissed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Aww, no I was just being positive I thought lol I'm a novice, I just like to watch it fall then sled in it. You know we're just bustin ya.... But we do know how you roll..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Aww, no I was just being positive I thought lol I'm a novice, I just like to watch it fall then sled in it. You have been much more positive than you were a few years ago. I give you props for that. Doesn't mean I like your taste in sports teams though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You have been much more positive than you were a few years ago. I give you props for that. Doesn't mean I like your taste in sports teams though... Haha busted, Patriots, OKC Thunder, Michigan and Dodgers...make no sense. Hoping for enough to break tubes out of shed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Haha busted, Patriots, OKC Thunder, Michigan and Dodgers...make no sense. Hoping for enough to break tubes out of shed. you're a confused young man. Hopefully you grow outta of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Haha busted, Patriots, OKC Thunder, Michigan and Dodgers...make no sense. Hoping for enough to break tubes out of shed. You'll have so much snow up there the tubes are going to get buried. It's the 1st and 3rd teams on that list that are particularly disturbing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: You'll have so much snow up there the tubes are going to get buried. It's the 1st and 3rd teams on that list that are particularly disturbing... ALL fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: fixed Lol what has OKC done to you!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Lol what has OKC done to you!? Yeah...I like me some Westbrook. I usually go to Philly each year when they're in town to watch him play. Back to the weather now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yeah...I like me some Westbrook. I usually go to Philly each year when they're in town to watch him play. Back to the weather now. Niiicee same here, and in DC too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Here are 850's from the EPS. Williamsport and their OKC fans might even have issue with that but check out the second panel, with its pretty purples, after the front. In defense of winter weather, panel 120 does show a CAD signature but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Horst: Monday, January 14, 2019: The second half of January may be a wild ride, both in terms of storms and temperatures. While generally colder than recent weeks, I can still see a mild day every now and then...thus, making precipitation type a tricky matter as a parade of storms move by. I expect we'll see a system of import pass by here every 3 or 4 days--this will make for lots of heavy lifting for meteorologists as there could be up to four storm threats before month's end. Short term, Monday through Thursday morning will be quiet with seasonable temperatures and no precipitation. Then comes system #1 (a fast-moving clipper) on Thursday afternoon and night with a 6- to 10-hour period of snow changing to wintry mix...ending as drizzle. South of the Turnpike this type of system typically yields a coating to an inch or two, whereas central PA and the mountains could get 2 to 4 inches. Of course, those are "typical numbers" for a system like this--check back here Tuesday for me to issue my actual forecast for Thursday night's clipper system. A shallow shot of cold air will slice in on Friday, behind the exiting clipper. Meanwhile storm #2 will be gathering in Texarkana...and this system will race our way with abundant Gulf moisture in tow. Precip should arrive here (as snow) Saturday afternoon, however, a change to wintry mix or perhaps even rain seems more likely than not Saturday night into Sunday morning. Of course, the storm is still 5+ days away...and it's much too early to lock in the details. But with very little downstream blocking, I expect the shallow cold air will retreat from southern PA and, thus, the inland track with a changeover is the more likely outcome. (Snow lovers can hold out hope of a more eastern/colder track for a couple more days--the critical disturbance won't even come into the US west coast until Thursday AM.) Another possibility...is the storm will begin as snow, then change to rain Saturday night, then end as a period of snow midday Sunday, as Arctic air gets drawn into the back end of the exiting storm. Realistically, however, it will be Thursday until this storm can be dialed in--check back then! Beyond that, a windy/cold Monday will follow...and next Monday night could be the coldest of the year so far if high pressure builds in over fresh snow cover. But again, without downstream blocking to hold in the cold air, milder air will return our way just as storm #3 approaches sometime in the Wednesday PM to Friday PM time frame. We're now talking 10 days in the future--so this can all change--but I can see this becoming another changeover storm for the Lancaster area. Summing: I rather storm period is developing with above-average precipitation likely for the second half of January. But if you want all snow from these next three storms, then move to Bradford PA...because here in Lancaster all three systems may involved a changeover. This will make for challenging forecasts...and sleep deprivation...for this guy! (grin) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Author Share Posted January 14, 2019 22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Lol what has OKC done to you!? Just a hometown kinda guy. That’s all. And you are today’s target for the gang. When we rain over the weekend....you can pass it back to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Nah, I like you guys and want you to get snow..I like it, you guys are crazy for it. I'll accept roasting for teams, haha I do at work daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gosnow Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst: Monday, January 14, 2019: The second half of January may be a wild ride, both in terms of storms and temperatures. While generally colder than recent weeks, I can still see a mild day every now and then...thus, making precipitation type a tricky matter as a parade of storms move by. I expect we'll see a system of import pass by here every 3 or 4 days--this will make for lots of heavy lifting for meteorologists as there could be up to four storm threats before month's end. Short term, Monday through Thursday morning will be quiet with seasonable temperatures and no precipitation. Then comes system #1 (a fast-moving clipper) on Thursday afternoon and night with a 6- to 10-hour period of snow changing to wintry mix...ending as drizzle. South of the Turnpike this type of system typically yields a coating to an inch or two, whereas central PA and the mountains could get 2 to 4 inches. Of course, those are "typical numbers" for a system like this--check back here Tuesday for me to issue my actual forecast for Thursday night's clipper system. A shallow shot of cold air will slice in on Friday, behind the exiting clipper. Meanwhile storm #2 will be gathering in Texarkana...and this system will race our way with abundant Gulf moisture in tow. Precip should arrive here (as snow) Saturday afternoon, however, a change to wintry mix or perhaps even rain seems more likely than not Saturday night into Sunday morning. Of course, the storm is still 5+ days away...and it's much too early to lock in the details. But with very little downstream blocking, I expect the shallow cold air will retreat from southern PA and, thus, the inland track with a changeover is the more likely outcome. (Snow lovers can hold out hope of a more eastern/colder track for a couple more days--the critical disturbance won't even come into the US west coast until Thursday AM.) Another possibility...is the storm will begin as snow, then change to rain Saturday night, then end as a period of snow midday Sunday, as Arctic air gets drawn into the back end of the exiting storm. Realistically, however, it will be Thursday until this storm can be dialed in--check back then! Beyond that, a windy/cold Monday will follow...and next Monday night could be the coldest of the year so far if high pressure builds in over fresh snow cover. But again, without downstream blocking to hold in the cold air, milder air will return our way just as storm #3 approaches sometime in the Wednesday PM to Friday PM time frame. We're now talking 10 days in the future--so this can all change--but I can see this becoming another changeover storm for the Lancaster area. Summing: I rather storm period is developing with above-average precipitation likely for the second half of January. But if you want all snow from these next three storms, then move to Bradford PA...because here in Lancaster all three systems may involved a changeover. This will make for challenging forecasts...and sleep deprivation...for this guy! (grin) Not comforting for us in the lsv for all snow But glad to hear up north could see a whole bunch. Still time to change. Really need the blocking to hold in the cold. It always is a matter of timing and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Not a bad 12z Euro at all for us in the LSV. It is a crushing snow storm for places in CTP not far away from the LSV. The LSV is snow to mix to back to snow, with a ton of moisture. We only need a very small track adjustment or slightly earlier cold air press to bring the LSV back into the All snow bullseye. Attention to our friend in Williamsport ...you are in the snow bullseye on this run! It's to early to be in the bullseye....look at them totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 If Horst is right, you can probably cut those numbers into thirds lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z gfs still look good for 2 to 4 Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now