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Central PA - Winter 2018-19


pasnownut
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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, at least in my general local area this has a South Mountain special written all over it. 

Models have been hinting at an enhancement down this way for a couple days.   At this point I feel 4” is a good first call with possibly up to 6” on ridges like Big Flat.   I wouldn’t be surprised if areas like MDT and east end up with bigger amounts

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CTP has expanded advisories up a tier or so, as has PBZ now including Pittsburgh metro. 2-4" for the central counties (JST,AOO, Lewistown region) and 1-3" advisories for the next tier of Sus Valley counties including Harrisburg. Recall that advisory criteria is now 2" in 12 hours in the LSV. Things seem pretty set now with northward extent and QPF with some possibility of some minor shifts. Just starting to get into range for using near term guidance. This isn't going to be the biggest snowfall ever for the part of the subforum that sees it but it is something.. and the longer term is starting to look pretty promising with regard to storm possibilities and sustained cold air. D8-10 range has been looking like a window to watch for the next system. 

CTP discussion below:

Quote

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/... Lower clouds from the NW are undercutting the cirrus as it spreads in from the WSW. This has already stopped the temp drops in the NW, and may create a cooler-than-forecast day as well. Dewpoints are very low, esp across the north. This will be something to factor in later today. The storm moving at us is still well-connected to the Gulf, and will stay rather static around 1015mb before starting to fill later today as drier air wraps in from the N. The major wave of warm advection and precip will not get into the area until just after Noon. It may have a tough time working down to the sfc, as the best lift is well aloft and dewpoints are generally 10F or less. 

 

SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... The first wave of WAA precip/snow continues to push into the area from the SW this aftn, but it has a tough time overcoming the dry air, and could take quite a while to make much of an accumulation at all before nearly sunset. A band of prcip will likely follow the first volley and enhance precip over the SWrn third of the area. Best UVVEL is inside or just above the DGZ as this band moves in. The DGZ is well aloft, about 15kft up. So, despite a good set up for dendrites to grow nicely, they may rime/accrete as they fall through the lower clouds and keep the SLRs in check. SLRs look exactly the same as last few runs, about 13:1 in Somerset with a slight gradient up to 15:1 at UNV and MDT. Overall, there is only a 4-6hr window where we get any decent accums, and HREF probabilities do not support 1"+/hr rates. Still, the liquid and SLRs play out a solid advy snow of 2-4 inches along and south of Route 22. The dry air to the NW and orientation of the banded precip seems like it will only push the accumulating snow to a line pretty much right along I-80. Places 10-20 miles N of I-80 may get a dusting, but any farther north, and no snow will accumulate. Have added another tier of counties onto the advy by adding just a half of an inch onto going totals. HREF/HIRES model data supports higher numbers on the ridges, but may be overdoing the orographic enhancement slightly. Tough call on whether or not to add counties east of the river into the advy. But, the totals in Harrisburg and the western half of Lancaster Co should make it up to advy criteria of 2". Places east of Lebanon and Lancaster could get just a dusting. The snow tapers off to something just heavier than flurries in the middle of the night. Most of it will be on the ground by 4-5AM. Expect little wind with this snow and air temps in the 20s while it is falling. The temps may start near freezing in SEG/MDT/LNS.

 

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7 to 8" of snow in Missouri, models quickly trending north....

Confluence is going to have to really kick ass or this snow is going to be comparable to Nov. possibly even into Cumberland and dauphin counties.  Maybe not 8" but nws has to be worried their wwa should be a wsw for some.  This is for total event snow and any that falls Sunday afternoon and evening. 

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17 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

7 to 8" of snow in Missouri, models quickly trending north....

Confluence is going to have to really kick ass or this snow is going to be comparable to Nov. possibly even into Cumberland and dauphin counties.  Maybe not 8" but nws has to be worried their wwa should be a wsw for some.  This is for total event snow and any that falls Sunday afternoon and evening. 

I totally agree.  You can easily see the north trend when looking at the current satellite and radar.    This is nothing new.    If we can manage some costal love with a juiced up waa, this could turn out to be warning criteria down this way.    Good luck everyone and hope things trend for more snow ️ 

 

19/15

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21 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Been following the MA forum and lol.  It’s a 12-18” for DC on nam with .5+” qpf over the Mason Dixon.   That would change the mood in here 

The 12z NAM really increased precip totals along from Route 30 area to the south into MD & VA.

The overall northern edge of the precip did not change much, with a sharp cut off to the north of Harrisburg & Lancaster.

Do you guys think the overall precip shield will be able to move another 30 to 50 miles further north to get the Harrisburg area into those .5 or better precip totals ? 

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The 12z NAM really increased precip totals along from Route 30 area to the south into MD & VA.
The overall northern edge of the precip did not change much, with a sharp cut off to the north of Harrisburg & Lancaster.
Do you guys think the overall precip shield will be able to move another 30 to 50 miles further north to get the Harrisburg area into those .5 or better precip totals ? 

Trend has been to expand northward. Could see another small bumps north. There will be a tight cutoff.


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2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

I'm thinking about heading up to the lake this afternoon to see how things look up that way. It may be a bit north of the best action, but trending makes it seem like it may be right in the thick. We'll see.

If your talking about Raystown Lake (southern Huntingdon County) you might end up in about the best spot in the forum for this storm other than maybe the PA/MD border with the good ratios and heavier precip creeping north. The models have been pretty solid on the central counties having slightly better QPF even before the NAM started NAMing.

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MDT is still ahead through today in terms of seasonal snowfall thanks to the November storm & the .1 of slop the other day. The snow total through yesterday sat at 8.9 inches & the seasonal average to date is 8.3 inches.

The storm tonight is arriving just in time to keep MDT ahead for the seasonal snow total !

I would like to at least score 3.1 inches at MDT to get to the 12 inch total so far this season.

Then maybe next weekend we can get a storm that puts us well ahead of the snow game if the Euro is anywhere close to being right !

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