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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Tropical tidbits snowmap shows accumulating snow here but the surface maps just show rain... kind of weird.

The FV3 shows many of us starting (switching briefly) as some kind of wintery precip before the rain takes over. But yeah, the snow/sleet amounts are over the top. This models still has some details to work out. 

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RAH is keeping an eye on possibly a little bit of ice for NW and north portions of NC. Nothing that would cause any issues but it's all we got:

 

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 228 AM Saturday...

 

 

Rain and falling temperatures again Sunday.

 

 

CAD appears that it will linger into Sunday. It will get reinforced

as a 1025+ mb high is forecast to extend south into our Piedmont

damming region (even into northeast GA) Sunday. The high is

progressive to the north, cutting off our supply of cold and dry air

Sunday afternoon from the north. However, the next southern branch

wave will be moving in late Sunday morning through the afternoon,

with presumably another cold rain. This presumption is confirmed by

the forecast partial thicknesses that suggest the cold rain as well.

However, the coldest ensemble runs of the models suggest that the

surface wet bulb temperatures will be as low as 30 in the Triad to

Roxboro Sunday afternoon into the evening. There may be some light

icing on elevated surfaces (above the highway system) if this

verifies. Otherwise. evaporative cooling of the 20s (dry) dew points

in the NW and N Piedmont should again lead to falling temperatures

in the damming region again Sunday as the rain falls. Highs 40 NW to

some 50s SE, but falling into the lower 30s west and north and near

40 SE by late Sunday with the rain. POP near 100 percent, and QPF

storm totals for round 2 in the 0.5 to 0.75 range ending Sunday

night.

 

 

&&

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

12z GFS coming in a little colder. Looks like some mixed snow for N. NC up into VA. Maybe even a significant event for NW NC into VA. 

Both GFS and CMC coming in Colder... a significant ICE STORM on the CMC, with maybe 1-4" of Snow in northern NC/Southern VA from GFS

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Both GFS and CMC coming in Colder... a significant ICE STORM on the CMC, with maybe 1-4" of Snow in northern NC/Southern VA from GFS

Yep, if I was in NW NC up towards your area I would start looking at this closely. Even down towards my area there could be some brief mixing; which I would call a win. 

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, if I was in NW NC up towards your area I would start looking at this closely. Even down towards my area there could be some brief mixing; which I would call a win. 

Winter has sucked so bad here that a 33 degree rain could be considered a win.  :axe:

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I think there's room for this storm to produce significant ice for a large section of NC Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. CAD placement looks perfect on the globals. and the GFS has been trending colder at the surface with each run. FV3gfs has nearly the entire state of NC bottoming out around 32/33 Tuesday night/Wed am with a textbook high placement.

It's unfortunate we don't have even an average strength cold/dry high pressure in front of this storm or it would be a doozy.

fv3p_T2m_eus_15.png

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24 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

NAM coming in much colder and more ice in NC CAD areas. 

You guys looking better for sure

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42 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Icon coming in only about 8 degrees colder than 18Z run. 

8 degrees Gracie??

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The FV3 came in a little colder for Tuesday (goes along with CMC). Looks like western and northern parts of NC, then up inti VA have a shot of seeing some wintery precip. We shouldn't get to excited. From RAH:

Another disturbance and CAD event is expected to effect the area Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday, with lingering affects into Thursday. This will result in rain spreading into the area Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday, with lingering chances for precip into Thursday. A strong 1035+ surface high to the north/northeast will extend south/southwestward into central NC Tuesday into Wednesday before shifting eastward and well offshore by Wednesday night. Meanwhile, a complex low pressure system will approach from the southwest on Tuesday, with precip spreading into the on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Models have trended colder with low level thickness values/thermal profiles across central NC on Tuesday evening/night. In fact we may see a period of rain/mixed with snow across the Piedmont Tuesday night. However, no impacts are expected at this time, with temps expected to remain just above freezing during this time frame. As the warm moisture air continues surge into the area Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning expect any snow mixing in will turn to all rain thanks the the associated warm nose. We will need to keep a close eye on this time frame (Tuesday night into early Wednesday) as wet bulb temps are right around freezing. Given this have lowered temps Tuesday night into Wednesday, with lows Wednesday morning in the lower to mid 30s across the Piedmont to the upper 30s across the south. Highs Wednesday during the daytime are expected to range from the mid to upper 30s NW (maybe a bit too warm still) to the lower 50s far SE (very late in the day too).

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12z NAM at hour 51 has dew points in the upper teens in VA, low 20s across northern NC, mid 20s across N. SC and S. NC, and 20s to near 30 for a large part of SC and mid to N. Ga. We really want this to be about a category colder if your looking for a widespread ice storm. Of course there are many other things to think about, but if you have a strong established CAD (classic) I've always noticed you want dew points in the teens for my particular area.  Western areas work a little differently but even there the lower the dew points in VA (..say low teens) the better. 

CAD can overperform with strength and cold. Just something to look for....

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FWIW, the WPC Probabilities show a 20-30% chance of Wake getting .01" of freezing rain.  5-10% chance of .10" of freezing rain.

Not a big deal, but the chances are there.  Will have to see if this increases as CAD is better forecasted.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

12z NAM at hour 51 has dew points in the upper teens in VA, low 20s across northern NC, mid 20s across N. SC and S. NC, and 20s to near 30 for a large part of SC and mid to N. Ga. We really want this to be about a category colder if your looking for a widespread ice storm. Of course there are many other things to think about, but if you have a strong established CAD (classic) I've always noticed you want dew points in the teens for my particular area.  Western areas work a little differently but even there the lower the dew points in VA (..say low teens) the better. 

CAD can overperform with strength and cold. Just something to look for....

Think the problem will be DP depression and wetbulb! There is a lot of moisture around, so I just can’t see DP’s getting super low, or even as low as forecasted, IMO 

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It's a lakes cutter. Whatever winter P type initially falls will turn to rain for NC. Never thought I would see the day people weenie out over this. What a suckfest this winter has been. 

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

GFS/FV3/CMC all show potential for wintry mix at onset of precip for central/north-central NC.

GEFS as Well... GEFS has a Strong CAD Signature 

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS says, unless you live in Wilkesboro, or Boone, it’s all rain Tuesday night /Wednesday!!

Before calling this one, I am going to wait until we get into the high resolution models wheelhouse. It is close to a good front-end thump for a lot of us.

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

12z NAM at hour 51 has dew points in the upper teens in VA, low 20s across northern NC, mid 20s across N. SC and S. NC, and 20s to near 30 for a large part of SC and mid to N. Ga. We really want this to be about a category colder if your looking for a widespread ice storm. Of course there are many other things to think about, but if you have a strong established CAD (classic) I've always noticed you want dew points in the teens for my particular area.  Western areas work a little differently but even there the lower the dew points in VA (..say low teens) the better. 

CAD can overperform with strength and cold. Just something to look for....

The trend has been to slow precip arrival and allow temps to get well into the 40s tuesday across nc so the odds of it over performing to me  have gone down imo unless that trend reverses which  there is still time to do so. 

Frustrating to say the least though  As it seems with every single wedge this year there is one piece missing or something isn't timed right.....and with this one it's once again lack of dry/cold enough surface air. This despite a well place high and a respectably strong one...in the upper 1030s.  Normally  such a high with even "average" cold air means it's game on for cad country... but at the surface there just isn't much cold air to work with.   It's pretty reflective of how bad this winter has been  that even with high of that strength  and position that  we still can't even  get something minor south of nc, with the exception of the higher elevations.

That said, It does seem somewhat likely to see at least a little freezing rain in the higher elevations (above 1000 feet elevation) from ne ga and the usual prime areas in far nw sc/western nc based on subfreezing temps just off the surface on pretty much every model. 

2 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

It's a lakes cutter. Whatever winter P type initially falls will turn to rain for NC. Never thought I would see the day people weenie out over this. What a suckfest this winter has been

mix to rain here would feel like hitting the lottery... :cry:

 

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