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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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3 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

 

ecmwf_t2m_charlotte_26.png

fv3 has been warmer and warmer with this one......now has just a run of the mill cold. Only upper 20s here to low to mid 20s in nc. 

5 minutes ago, beanskip said:

How much for Ocala? :D

 

ocala.png

Probably will get more than ga/sc in the end. :axe: 

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Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week.  This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation.  I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled.  A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days.  We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices.  I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet.....     

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Just now, Upstate Tiger said:

Well at least this weekend's storm looks to lay down some pretty good snow in the Midwest, on top of some areas that just got snow earlier this week.  This should lay down the tracks for the cold air to come south without a lot of moderation.  I know what the ops are showing but I am still not a 100% convinced the system late next week goes as far north as modeled.  A lot of moving parts in play after this weekend make it hard to have faith in any specifics beyond 5 days.  We do know, however, that there will plenty of cold air, s/w's entering the west and more favorable indices.  I wouldn't jump off the cliff just yet.....     

And if you do decide to jump, there is a thread devoted to that :)

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Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast.

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2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast.

I think they're coming. We just haven't had deep enough troughs to get them going yet.

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13 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Where have all the clippers gone to this winter? Be nice to see one when we are at max suppresion. Those are the only ones we can get to halfway work east of the apps. The ones that go down into Albabma, Georgia underneath the NC 6,000 ft peaks, then swing back up off the coast.

Yesterday's 12z FV3 was about as good as it gets from about 270 on, in the way it evolved the pattern.  Today's guidance, virtually across the board, is to back the western ridge out west and sneak energy into the SW.  If that turns out to be accurate, and I'm not saying that it is, that puts the storm track west of us and puts us back into a holding pattern, waiting yet another few days to get a better trough/ridge alignment and/or blocking.  All of that is allegedly coming.

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Ukie could bode well for NE NC and SE VA with this track Sunday/Backside as Cold air flies in.
 
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif&key=b76c6ef593af3625cce8e9fa332fde26b5fe45fe751b518420edf035ee6765f5

I hope so. I just don’t see it. Looks like typical cold chasing moisture unless the LP slows down some.


.

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Realistically what are going to have to have happen to stop these troughs from bottoming our over Texas and actually start setting up over the Eastern US? Outside of scoring perfect timing (see yesterday’s 18z GFS) I just don’t see how we can possibly get anything noteworthy from this setup. 

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All guidance shows heavy rain this weekend and middle of next week. No sustained cold. Give me all the indices you want, the proof is in the pudding. 

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14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

All guidance shows heavy rain this weekend and middle of next week. No sustained cold. Give me all the indices you want, the proof is in the pudding. 

There's a significant cold shot for 36 hours from Sunday Evening until Tuesday. It goes normal, at most, for the next 3-4 days before the hammer drops. The ensembles look as good as they have in years. There's not even really heavy rain totals, 1.5" through 10 days on the euro. 

I dont understand the cliff diving. 

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

There's a significant cold shot for 36 hours from Sunday Evening until Tuesday. It goes normal, at most, for the next 3-4 days before the hammer drops. The ensembles look as good as they have in years. There's not even really heavy rain totals, 1.5" through 10 days on the euro. 

I dont understand the cliff diving. 

The "cliff diving" I think up and down most of the seaboard is the guidance today kind of flipped a bit for next week based on what we were seeing yesterday.  Let's give it a another 24-36hrs and see.

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

The "cliff diving" I think up and down most of the seaboard is the guidance today kind of flipped a bit for next week based on what we were seeing yesterday.  Let's give it a another 24-36hrs and see.

The thing is, things really havent changed at all except operational models in fantasy land. 

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I’m not really cliff diving yet because at this point I’ve yet to even climb up. Outside of a fluke run at 18z yesterday there hasn’t been anything close to a credible threat for the SE US. Just rather consistent troughing over the Midwest, the west Atlantic ridge overlapping the East coast, and storms constantly cutting way inland. Now we may get lucky and score perfect timing, get a wave to hold back, and a high pressure move across in tandem to keep it suppressed. But that will be the exception, not the rule until the pattern changes a bit hopefully by February.

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18 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The thing is, things really havent changed at all except operational models in fantasy land. 

Yep. Sunday was a long shot at best. Mid next week another one. But the money period truly begins in 9 days now and getting closer. Theres no more kicking can past January 24-25. After that one (storm ) rides by Its hammer time day after day. All we have to do is find moisture and presto. We no longer fight WAR or SER after middle of next week and the block is set up top. I miss snow late Jan into Feb, it will be because Im to far north. The even better news is this could last through late Feb/Early March. So good times are coming.

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

All guidance shows heavy rain this weekend and middle of next week. No sustained cold. Give me all the indices you want, the proof is in the pudding. 

All of the indices are for 8-10 days AT A MINIMUM, not for this weekend or even next week. I think a month from now, most people will be singing a different tune! 

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

The thing is, things really havent changed at all except operational models in fantasy land. 

Give it time. We went from Jan 15th to Jan 20th to now Jan 25th. By the weekend we'll be punting until Jan 31st. Even if it does come we can't seem to get more than a couple days of below average at a time. Can't punt but a few more times after that and it's all over but the crying. Always 10+ days away. I believe nothing about the phantom NAO modeled. Someone posted 18 winter months straight of positive NAO. We've had plenty of fake outs this year too already. But we can always hope. Has to change someday.

 

Sorry for the rant. I hope this is different. But I've fell for it too many times. 

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50 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Give it time. We went from Jan 15th to Jan 20th to now Jan 25th. By the weekend we'll be punting until Jan 31st. Even if it does come we can't seem to get more than a couple days of below average at a time. Can't punt but a few more times after that and it's all over but the crying. Always 10+ days away. I believe nothing about the phantom NAO modeled. Someone posted 18 winter months straight of positive NAO. We've had plenty of fake outs this year too already. But we can always hope. Has to change someday.

 

Sorry for the rant. I hope this is different. But I've fell for it too many times. 

I believe that is what most folks think. "We have been fooled too many times". The pattern in the long range has looked wonderful, only to be muted as we approach verification time. It has to do with the strength of the highs dropping down being modeled too strong in the long range. I believe we will get cold, but I am a little skeptical about the big cold blasts that are being modeled at this range. I see great potential, and I will be very relieved in the next few days if it doesn't get pushed back yet again. The new FV3 has a cold bias in the long range. We have already seen that several times. Now that we know that, it will help us see more clearly. One thing I like is the fact that the Euro has a similar cold solution and the GFS ensembles have stood their ground, despite the operational runs looking like a 3 year old's coloring book. Now let's get this show started.

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fv3p_T2m_us_49.png

Talk about an arctic front..... temps pushing 50 in Charlotte while Boone is 18 degrees. However, that is 288 hours away.

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The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that....

The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. 

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19 minutes ago, msuwx said:

The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that....

The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. 

Thanks Matt for posting. I have always followed your forecasts and enjoyed your internet videos. Hopefully there are some good times ahead.

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1 hour ago, msuwx said:

The storm system this weekend opens the door for the new pattern. System this weekend and the 24th-ish are longer shots as the pattern change takes place. But after that....

The ensembles look about as good as possible. And it’s not getting further away. It’s getting closer, right on schedule. There’s no punting. 

Hopefully.  Next 10 days will be frustrating for the "give me snow or give me 60s" crew.  Gonna warm up and rain, then get cold.  Then warm up and rain, then get cold.  

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Hopefully.  Next 10 days will be frustrating for the "give me snow or give me 60s" crew.  Gonna warm up and rain, then get cold.  Then warm up and rain, then get cold.  

Yep. I'm in that crew. That is worse than being in an endless torch pattern. I'll be spending a lot of time in the sanitarium I'm sure.

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17 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yep. I'm in that crew. That is worse than being in an endless torch pattern. I'll be spending a lot of time in the sanitarium I'm sure.

I'm a little better off for this pattern, since I am one of those who can enjoy plain cold.  Of course I would rather my cold come with snow.

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We just had the wettest year on record for many locations on the east coast including millions of dollars in damage to my city and workplace so no I am not excited about widespread 2 to 4 inch rain amounts the next 7 to 8 days.

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