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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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15 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Geez, I'd take 33 and rain over the apocalyptic ice storm the CMC has. Drops 1.50-1.75" qpf over the I-85 corridor which remains below freezing for the event. 

Yeah if you’re anywhere from Greenville to the triangle, temps would be around 28-29 IMBY. 

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14 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Geez, I'd take 33 and rain over the apocalyptic ice storm the CMC has. Drops 1.50-1.75" qpf over the I-85 corridor which remains below freezing for the event. 

yeah the canadian is bad news honestly for everyone in cad territory with so much precip. Wetbulbs are in the upper 20s to near 30 right as precip arrives and the depth of the cold air is sufficient to keep it subfreezing for a good chunk of it,..through 925mb. Put simply the canadian looks like our classic ice storm for ga/sc./nc.  Nothing like the december storm in terms of the setup...where in this case the cold air is already well established before any of the precip arrives. Of course it's the canadian so tonight it's likely to show something totally different but for this run at least, it looks slick. 

 

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Let’s not forget that the “old gfs” wavered the most and was the last one to lock onto the right solution with the Dec storm. IMO it performed the worst out of all guidance at this range.

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Easily 2 million with lights out if that Canadian verified. You get 1.0 plus freezing Rain and temps in 20's, It will knock power out to 100% of grid. Exactly what happened in Dec 2002. That map is over high populated areas , Charlotte,Triad, Richmond. Ugh, worst case scenario. Anyway lets do another storm with 1.0+ all snow, like those better.

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8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Easily 2 million with lights out if that Canadian verified. You get 1.0 plus freezing Rain and temps in 20's, It will knock power out to 100% of grid. Exactly what happened in Dec 2002. That map is over high populated areas , Charlotte,Triad, Richmond. Ugh, worst case scenario. Anyway lets do another storm with 1.0+ all snow, like those better.

Yep 2002 looks close to what the Canadian is showing:

 

aaaa.jpg

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You guys lettin' me down!  Someone promised me 72° and sunny until June the other day.  Until I see the FV3 starts honking ice I'm not on board for the NW piedmont and triad.  The low level cold already in place by end of week is certainly enough reason to be concerned, but there is little reinforcement for it.  No snow pack really anywhere to the north and no new cold shot during the LP passage.  Am I missing something?  Otherwise that CAD signal should erode quickly, right?

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12 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

12z FV3 moves to a Miller B. Consider that a sizable jump towards the non American solution.

Ice is confined to the western areas of NC/VA; with lesser amounts (spots up to .25-.50") compared to the CMC. 

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Yeah I think outside the mountains this will be a non-event. Just more rain for the most part. 

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Ice is confined to the western areas of NC/VA; with lesser amounts (spots up to .25-.50") compared to the CMC. 

It appeared to be a very late transfer which brought in much warmer air compared to the CMC. considering the 6z didn't have it all, just ran the thing up west of the apps, I wouldn't be surprised on the 18z if it transferred farther south, allowing more ice/snow a little farther south and east. But only a guessing game on that part.

In terms of the temp profiles, I feel like the CMC may be a bit too warm, that is a much considerable stronger HP to the north compared to the December storm(I believe?). Verbatim, it should at some point show a better push of cold air. Or if it just pushes down a bit south faster, it'll be game on for many.

Edit* FV3 also has a better placement for the HP compared to the CMC, which is why I don't really buy the Miller B option it's showing.

 

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Remember that freezing rain is also a self-limiting process.  Very difficult to get the totals shown on some of those maps...but someone could see significant icing (based on current modeling).  Still a long ways out.

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

So the GFS/ICON/CMC seem to be more Amped. While the UK/EURO are less amped, with just light amounts.

Sounds about right considering how many days away we are from the event.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro coming in is more broad with the storm trough, similar to the UKMet. Fairly light with precip amounts. A light wintry event roughly NW of CLT to RDU

And they’ve been the most consistent. 

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

So the GFS/ICON/CMC seem to be more Amped. While the UK/EURO are less amped, with just light amounts.

For the GFS and Euro, this fits well with their common biases nowadays IMO. It was opposite in the old days 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

For the GFS and Euro, this fits well with their common biases nowadays IMO. It was opposite in the old days 

Just curious,  what's making the Euro and Icon stay more Snow/Ice, while others are Ice/Rain

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6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Just curious,  what's making the Euro and Icon stay more Snow/Ice, while others are Ice/Rain

GFS is just more wound up with the storm wave closing it off over Missouri, so that throws the parent low up into Tennessee.  Euro and Icon are more broad with the trough, with more of a weak Miller A sliding low 

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

You guys lettin' me down!  Someone promised me 72° and sunny until June the other day.  Until I see the FV3 starts honking ice I'm not on board for the NW piedmont and triad.  The low level cold already in place by end of week is certainly enough reason to be concerned, but there is little reinforcement for it.  No snow pack really anywhere to the north and no new cold shot during the LP passage.  Am I missing something?  Otherwise that CAD signal should erode quickly, right?

This cad isnt gonna erode quick enough and will be locked in. Yes freezing rain is self limiting process as far as sustaining 2m temps below 32, But If you do get freezing rain starting off with temps in the mid to upper 20's, by the time you freeze, get enough latent heat to release because of the process the storm (qpf) is outta here.  Anyway

 

Two things I'm siding with is the euro/Ukie idea of weak Miller A and more qpf than what they are advertising with that scenario. Certainly you can get a phase or quicker phase and that changes up sensible weather as far as precip types and amount of qpf. But we are inside 120 mark now and to discount consistent euro/ukie at h5 with other modeling trending toward it isn't the smartest move.

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37 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

This cad isnt gonna erode quick enough and will be locked in. Yes freezing rain is self limiting process as far as sustaining 2m temps below 32, But If you do get freezing rain starting off with temps in the mid to upper 20's, by the time you freeze, get enough latent heat to release because of the process the storm (qpf) is outta here.  Anyway

I always find the whole self-limiting thing kind of funny.  Like you said, if it's 28 degrees with NE winds and lots of steady precip, the only thing limiting is going to be the extent of the power grid.  If it's 32 degrees, well that's a whole different story.

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ZR is only self-limiting when there isn't a continuous feed of cold, dry air.  Long as you got a high in the right spot, funneling in cold, dry air, it can freezing rain for days.

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14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

event trending away from anything in triangle. boo

Does anybody have a euro snow map? If it's similar to last run, then I think nothing has changed (..model wars).   

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From RAH:

Saturday and Sunday: The weather system that will impact central NC this weekend will develop off the Rockies on Friday as a shortwave in the broadening trough aloft swings through TX and eastward toward the Southeast US Friday night into Saturday. In response to the shortwave aloft, a surface low will develop over the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday. Meanwhile, the surface high will continue ridging southwestward into the western part of NC as a CAD wedge through the weekend. The evolution, track and timing of the low as it progresses eastward and/or northeastward through the weekend will determine the weather and associated impacts for the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday. Will hold off on specifics for now given the uncertainty and the large impacts small changes would have on the forecast. However, given the cold air in place, particularly over the NC Piedmont, generally expect rain and/or a rain/snow mix over the weekend. The Coastal Plain and Sandhills should largely be all rain, but that could change.

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