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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Heavy downpours sound good to me. I hope the “gloom and doom” forecasts continue. We need the rain. Selfishly, I want it to rainout the couple of neighbors that shoot their little fireworks well after midnight. 

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5 minutes ago, gman said:

Heavy downpours sound good to me. I hope the “gloom and doom” forecasts continue. We need the rain. Selfishly, I want it to rainout the couple of neighbors that shoot their little fireworks well after midnight. 

Being a weather nut, I would prefer a nice lightning show over a man-made one any day.  

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On 7/2/2019 at 2:08 PM, gman said:

Heavy downpours sound good to me. I hope the “gloom and doom” forecasts continue. We need the rain. Selfishly, I want it to rainout the couple of neighbors that shoot their little fireworks well after midnight. 

Those neighbors are the worst. We have some that shoot fireworks for an entire week starting at 10pm and ending in the early AM. All...damn...week. So I'll sign on to this sentiment.

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Seeing some hints around the interwebs of a cooler than normal, less humid spell coming in the 10 day range.  I'm so dang busy I have no time to play in the weather, much less watch models, so I'll leave it to the experts here.  Any truth to this coming July Ice Age?

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36 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Seeing some hints around the interwebs of a cooler than normal, less humid spell coming in the 10 day range.  I'm so dang busy I have no time to play in the weather, much less watch models, so I'll leave it to the experts here.  Any truth to this coming July Ice Age?

The Goofy more or less says to try again next month. :axe:

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2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Seeing some hints around the interwebs of a cooler than normal, less humid spell coming in the 10 day range.  I'm so dang busy I have no time to play in the weather, much less watch models, so I'll leave it to the experts here.  Any truth to this coming July Ice Age?

I dunno about less humid but highs in the upper 80's is actually below normal for MBY this time of year,so the next 3 days technically will be below normal with highs only forecasted to get to 88-89....average high is 90 here until late July when it eases back down to 89 lol....

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One thing I’ve loved tracking the last few days is the pattern of these afternoon storms. With very weak steering currents they don’t really move so much as sit, rain out, then re-develop in a general direction on their own outflow boundary. Very few organized clusters but a ton of outflow boundaries makes for a busy radar but VERY inconsistent rain and the appearance of “skipping” over some places. Looks to be the case Thursday but I’ve noticed some models (gfs especially) seem to be advertising some increased coverage.

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On 7/10/2019 at 12:29 AM, LithiaWx said:

24th 90 degree plus day at KATL today.  I doubt we hit 90 days of 90 + but we are off to a nasty start.

26th day in KATL.  

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Hopefully we can get a break early next week:

From RAH:

The chances of much needed showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase by Monday into next week as a pattern change to less ridging and more troughing over the region occurs. A cold front or two should stall over the region during this time frame acting as a focus for convection.

 

aaaa.jpg

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4 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Hopefully we can get a break early next week:

From RAH:

The chances of much needed showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase by Monday into next week as a pattern change to less ridging and more troughing over the region occurs. A cold front or two should stall over the region during this time frame acting as a focus for convection.

 

aaaa.jpg

That ridge be like

"Screw you South Carolina, you aren't done baking yet"

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7 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Hopefully we can get a break early next week:

From RAH:

The chances of much needed showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase by Monday into next week as a pattern change to less ridging and more troughing over the region occurs. A cold front or two should stall over the region during this time frame acting as a focus for convection.

 

aaaa.jpg

Fantastic!  I'll be in Jacksonville FL all week.  Looks to be the hottest place on the planet.  Just what I needed.

I must be in a microclimate here in Forsyth County the last week or so.  It seems like it has rained every day.  Its raining now!  We had FFWs in Winston 2 nights ago.  I dont need much more rain right now, but I'm sure many do.  

13 weeks to October.  Countdown underway.......

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6 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

That ridge be like

"Screw you South Carolina, you aren't done baking yet"

If the models are correct, it would cool down towards your area the next day. Hopefully most of us can get a break. 

 

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3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Fantastic!  I'll be in Jacksonville FL all week.  Looks to be the hottest place on the planet.  Just what I needed.

I must be in a microclimate here in Forsyth County the last week or so.  It seems like it has rained every day.  Its raining now!  We had FFWs in Winston 2 nights ago.  I dont need much more rain right now, but I'm sure many do.  

13 weeks to October.  Countdown underway.......

I've had some rain at my location but not as much as others. Next week should provide more widespread rain. One of the GFS runs had temps in the 60s at noon for one of the days. That would be amazing for July. 

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From RAH:
The heat wave is expected to break Monday into Tuesday in a big way. Heights fall giving way to a large scale cold front that will move into the region late Monday and Tuesday. The front may stall or linger into Wednesday. Moisture pooling and strong convergence should bring a good chance of thunderstorms and showers, with considerable cooling as well. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should hold in the 80s, possibly some 70s over the northern Piedmont Tuesday and Wednesday!

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3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH:
The heat wave is expected to break Monday into Tuesday in a big way. Heights fall giving way to a large scale cold front that will move into the region late Monday and Tuesday. The front may stall or linger into Wednesday. Moisture pooling and strong convergence should bring a good chance of thunderstorms and showers, with considerable cooling as well. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should hold in the 80s, possibly some 70s over the northern Piedmont Tuesday and Wednesday!

Bless God!

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7 hours ago, FallsLake said:

From RAH:
The heat wave is expected to break Monday into Tuesday in a big way. Heights fall giving way to a large scale cold front that will move into the region late Monday and Tuesday. The front may stall or linger into Wednesday. Moisture pooling and strong convergence should bring a good chance of thunderstorms and showers, with considerable cooling as well. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should hold in the 80s, possibly some 70s over the northern Piedmont Tuesday and Wednesday!

Man, really hope so. Getting really sick of this heat. Really didn't like the monthly forecasts that I saw come out with talk of above normal temps for August-October.

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You can literally see the Carolina Crusher screaming up the coast... :weenie:


I like the way you think. Hopefully it’s a sign of some fun times ahead this winter


.

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6 hours ago, Jessy89 said:

 


I like the way you think. Hopefully it’s a sign of some fun times ahead this winter emoji3587.png


 

 

 

 

6 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

You can literally see the Carolina Crusher screaming up the coast... :weenie: ;)

 

You got that damn right

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RAH

 Due to the strong height falls and a slow moving front, 
expect the potential for several waves of low pressure to track over 
the region Tue-Wed. Several large convective clusters can be 
expected to affect the region from time to time. QPF of 1 to locally 
3 inches continues to be forecast. 

Temperatures will not be an issue by Tuesday and Wednesday as some 
areas of the Piedmont may stay in the 70s during the day! 

The main hazard after the heat will probably turn to flash flood 
potential late Monday through mid-week. 

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On 7/17/2019 at 9:32 PM, FallsLake said:

I've had some rain at my location but not as much as others. Next week should provide more widespread rain. One of the GFS runs had temps in the 60s at noon for one of the days. That would be amazing for July. 

44 days until Labor Day 

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6 hours ago, griteater said:

After Monday, no outrageous heat showing on the Euro Ensemble into early August with weak troughing in the eastern U.S. 

Climo says we start the cool-down process mid-August. Slowly at first, and then it picks up steam in September. I am done with Summer and ready to move on to Fall.

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I'm not worried about winter.  I've come to terms with not having a wall-to-wall cold winter in these parts.  We just need a cold spell long enough to get a decent storm.

Back to the topic, though, I'm looking forward to the cool down.  Even 90 would feel like a relief at this point.

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