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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

We know better; not even a Lloyd Christmas chance here. :frostymelt:

It's happening!  We'll get some sprinkles while Mack picks up 3 or 4 inches tomorrow morning. Take it to the bank!

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The 00Z 12K NAM does not disappoint! A nice 6-inch swath of snowfall from Charlotte to Greensboro! Upstate SC gets 1-3 inches. Also, the afternoon discussion from GSP was priceless. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

The 00Z 12K NAM does not disappoint! A nice 6-inch swath of snowfall from Charlotte to Greensboro! Upstate SC gets 1-3 inches. Also, the afternoon discussion from GSP was priceless. Check it out if you haven't seen it yet.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

Below freezing in the middle of the day too in the heaviest snow axis.

Are there any analogs for this?

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Please dont do this to yourselves.  Have some dignity.  Cold rain is what we shall have, and nothing more.  Our December snow broke the models.  The FV3 hasnt been right since.  

 

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6 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said:




.

Was just about to post that. Still VERY weary after the abuse we've taken this year.

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GSP morning discussion mentions ~ an inch along and NW of 85

GSP has also issued a HWO

A low pressure system is expected to develop off the southern South Carolina coastline Tuesday morning.

Precipitation developing well west of the storm center could impact parts of the western Carolinas, mainly during the morning hours on Tuesday.

With relatively cold and dry air in place over the region, the precipitation could fall as snow in some locations, and light accumulations cannot be ruled out.

All interests across the region should keep abreast of the forecast since significant changes are possible over the next 24 hours.

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The 06Z 12Z NAM was very friendly to upstate SC with a 7-inch lollipop of snowfall. We now have a HWO for up to one-half-inch of snowfall tomorrow morning. Crazy, but lovin' it!

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I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect.  Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show.  As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.

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7 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect.  Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show.  As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.

Everything is looking great at the moment! Usually, the precip is a little NW of what’s modeled! Shetley could Jackpot!

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I haven't had a chance to look at a lot of the details.  What's the issue for Raleigh?  Cold air or storm track too close to coast?  or both?

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1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I haven't had a chance to look at a lot of the details.  What's the issue for Raleigh?  Cold air or storm track too close to coast?  or both?

Biggest issue there might be time of day.  Hard to get snow to the ground at this lattitude in early April at 1pm. Also, the cold air aloft has had more time to modify by then as well.  The best timing for snow appears to be set up in upstate SC.  Definitely worth watching for Charlotte and points north and east though.

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

That is very bold for them, and in April! The 0z Euro, and EPS = amazeballs!!

Unless there is a last minute nw shift, I would think any significant snowfall would be south of 85, not north due to lack of overall precip..not to mention that some will be needed to cool surface temps/column.  Models seem pretty unanimous that the best liquid totals and best chances are south of 85. 

1 hour ago, calculus1 said:

The 06Z 12Z NAM was very friendly to upstate SC with a 7-inch lollipop of snowfall. We now have a HWO for up to one-half-inch of snowfall tomorrow morning. Crazy, but lovin' it!

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk
 

Hard to believe, especially since surface temps start off so warm...in the low to mid 40s. In fact the nam shows temps as warm as 46/47  as late as  06z . Using a sounding in the heart of the heaviest area of progged snow on the nam in the upstate,  At 06z, Wetbulb temps at the surface start off only as low as around 37 and wetbulb zero heights are between 925 and 950mb. So we are talking about needing some serious cooling to get some snow....much less significant accumulation. Gfs/fv3 are more reasonable showing temps in the upper 30s to low 40s at 06z. 

For my neck of the woods, there isn't much difference temp wise at the surface or aloft than sc so i would expect it's possible to see some flakes at some point here too if these projections are correct but i'm skeptical of actual accumulations..outside of a brief dusting or something. That said,  i'm personally rooting for the fv3 :whistle: 

Seeing any snow at all in april would be pretty ridiculous though.

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I hope this trends east so Raleigh can cash in a little!  

Looks pretty doubtful. Temps look way too warm aloft. Besides temps aloft, the further one east goes the more they will be fighting solar insolation and it's brutal this time of year. 

49 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect.  Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show.  As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.

 I'm  skeptical most has a chance to  get that much...i'm thinking at most an inch....maybe 2 is the general safe bet for max totals. Nam seems out to lunch with it's excessive liquid totals with most models only showing half that much or even less and  some will be needed to cool surface temps too. 

The irony though that we could get snow, much less accumulation, in freaking april after we couldn't get a damn thing all winter. Someone  has a sense of humor. 

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1 hour ago, burrel2 said:

I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect.  Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show.  As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.

Almost reminds me of that 2012 event where Rock Hill got 4" in 2 hours or so. 

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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Just remember, whoever starts a storm thread for this has to deal with the humiliation until December.  

Was thinking about creating it lol!

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Just remember, whoever starts a storm thread for this has to deal with the humiliation until December. 

 

9 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Please dont do this to yourselves.  Have some dignity.  Cold rain is what we shall have, and nothing more.  Our December snow broke the models.  The FV3 hasnt been right since. 

 

We get it.  You've got the weather all figured out, and we are stupid for even enjoying a chase that might not pan out.

Come on, man.  It's a weather board.  And, more than that, it's a snow-lovers board.  We are going to talk about what the models show and what might happen, and I won't apologize for that.  If it doesn't snow, life will go on.  If it does snow, I will enjoy it (just like the anticipation), even if it only falls from the sky and never actually accumulates.

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2 hours ago, burrel2 said:

I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect.  Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show.  As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.

Typical Oconee, Pickens County skip job incoming... 

I'd be interested if I was in Sptbg to Clt,  but here....

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It hasnt snowed in Charlotte in April since 1987. The record snow for the month is 3". Conceivably, both of those could change tomorrow. 

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