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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Most models now have higher QPF just offshore, if the current trend can just keep it up by Tues this could be decent here. .3-.5" QPF would make this a nice little end to winter.....

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This low wants to trend stronger albeit by small increments each run.  We just need it to hug the coast a little more or longer maybe.

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I guess tracking a dusting in March, is a testament to how this blockbuster winter has gone!

With all due respect, what other positive feedback can you provide to this forum?


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The Tuesday threat or whatever all depends if a meso low sets up in upstate South Carolina ive been watching this for several days. Wouldn't be surprised to see snow showers break out along and north of 85 on tuesday at some point.

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I give another win to the models! They said at day 7 Tuesday night wouldn't be a non event.

They've done a fine job of telling us at day 7 its not gonna snow instead of day 3 this year. And the only storm we got inside 6 days panned out. I'm speaking for our part of the country only. Haven't paid attention to the overall verification of them.

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Just now, Solak said:

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago

 

12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas.D00n-9-XQAAuf64.jpg

I'm watching this for my self to see if i can get a handful of flakes if i'm lucky as the trend has been for the precip to be a little further north here in ga. But knowing the way this winter has gone, the more painful runs that keep the band of precip just a county or two to the south will probably be the ones that verify. (euro) Icon has come a little further north this morning though, as well as the wrf suite.  Probably my last shot at seeing anything this year unless something strange happens. If i manage to get more than a few minutes of rain/snow mix at 36 then this will be the highlight of the winter here. :lol: 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_6.png

 

icon_asnow_seus_10.png

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23 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Anyway for that Tuesday morning precip to magically trend into central NC?  A guy could hope, i suppose.

We do have the latest HRRR:

 

aaaa.jpg

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gfs is a bit wetter than previous runs for everyone..especially carolinas where i'd say it's a lot wetter. previous runs had little to none, now has a few tenths.

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11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

We do have the latest HRRR:

 

 

Interesting.   It is on the last frame, though.  Will have to see if it continues.

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

gfs is a bit wetter than previous runs for everyone..especially carolinas where i'd say it's a lot wetter. previous runs had little to none, now has a few tenths.

NE parts of NE SC and SE NC just might see a surprise event. Even a dusting would be a win.  

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Interesting.   It is on the last frame, though.  Will have to see if it continues.

Yeah we can hope. Nothing to lose. Precip would be developing right over us, which can be a good thing; but very hard to model.  

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6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

If a single flake falls here in SW Wake County it will be the most snow have had all season.

I thought you guys got ~1 with the December storm; then it got washed away. 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

NE parts of NE SC and SE NC just might see a surprise event. Even a dusting would be a win.  

yep, also think the same could happen here in ga..especially between columbus to  macon north/south of atlanta/athens. Models have consistently shown it cold enough on the northern fridge/back edge for snow. Surface temps are initially an issue the further east you go but temps fall to near freezing early  south of atlanta so a light dusting isn't out of the question in these areas. It's the long range hrrr so take it with a grain of salt but latest  says maybe a little more than just a dusting in a tiny area..several hours of light snow between atlanta and macon with temps at or below freezing and a narrow band of more than 0.10 liquid. Temps start out already near freezing when it begins too. 

Would be nice if the models have been underestimating precip all along. The other day where we had a long line of showers/rain training over the same area for quite a distance (across the entire state) and not a single model  picked up on it, including all the high resolution ones (didn't even show up on the simulated  composite radar).   Was thinking at the time, why can't this ever happen when it's cold. Would be nice if they missed this one by that much. 

26 minutes ago, wake4est said:

If a single flake falls here in SW Wake County it will be the most snow have had all season.

this would keep the winter for being a total shutout for a lot of folks. 

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9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

I thought you guys got ~1 with the December storm; then it got washed away. 

We got like .5" of sleet where I am.  No snow in it.

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago

 

12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas.D00n-9-XQAAuf64.jpg

Yes, this is called for in My Local Forecast, hope to see some "Token Flakes".. 

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Peeking at the Models, almost all of them are hinting at a "event" for SENC in the Morning..  Do We get 32.01 and cold rain, or will "rates" over come the Sun Angle?  Giving Us a dusting? ;) 

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9 minutes ago, SENC said:

Peeking at the Models, almost all of them are hinting at a "event" for SENC in the Morning..  Do We get 32.01 and cold rain, or will "rates" over come the Sun Angle?  Giving Us a dusting? ;) 

I would love to see you guys score. I think you got a decent chance. 

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RAH late morning update.

At 
the same time, a low amplitude perturbation -- and saturation/ 
precipitation aloft-- will migrate through the base of an ern CONUS 
trough, and into the Carolinas overnight-early Tue. The foregoing 
lower level cloudiness may allow for more of that precipitation 
aloft, related to the upr perturbation, to reach the surface over SC 
and srn/sern NC; and we have introduced a larger area of light 
measurable precipitation from the srn Piedmont to the Sandhills and 
srn and cntl Coastal Plain for late tonight-early Tue to account for 
that increasing probability. A marginally above freezing boundary 
layer will likely cause any snow to melt as it falls, though if 
rates are high enough for 2-3 hrs, that shallow above freezing could 
be melted out and allow for a very light dusting to occur primarily 
along and southeast of a line from Fayetteville to Goldsboro (ie. 
mainly Sampson Co.). More on this potential this afternoon...

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HRRR continues to build in some snow across portions of NC for a brief period Tuesday morning..  Don't know if it is enough for folks in Wake to score...at least i'm in extreme southern wake..  

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2 hours ago, wake4est said:

We got like .5" of sleet where I am.  No snow in it.

It snowed a bit here in SE Wake and then went to sleet then rain.  We got about an inch of slush.  That was it for the winter.

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