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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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42 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Both the 18Z GFS and FV3 show light snow for central NC on Monday.  But the Tuesday/Wednesday system is non-existent...  poof.  
What do other models show?  

At this point its gonna change so much run to run its kind of hard to say if there is even really two definite waves....the sad thing is we probably are going to be dealing with a lot of inconsistency till at least Friday in the models. In a way though IMO its almost better to not have the models run after run showing a big snowstorm in this range only to have it go bust down the stretch. I would rather it be borderline and trend to the good in the last few days to keep expectations down. That said I am strangely optimistic that this one is going to bring the goods, after the lousy winter in general this seems like just the thing mother nature would do......

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6Z GFS and FV3 show sunday night's rain trying to end as a little snow on Monday. we all know how that usually works out.   They both have the other system suppressed and off the coast.

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Looks like it will just be a dry but cold week next week. All precip chances have been removed from our forecast.

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Just now, yotaman said:

Looks like it will just be a dry but cold week next week. All precip chances have been removed from our forecast.

Good for me-don't any more rain here in the Upstate anyway...

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This pattern bites since any significant snow is probably off the table, now that a lot of the flowers and buds have come out here if we get down to 20 or below Tues-Wed that will cause some damage. 

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42 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

This pattern bites since any significant snow is probably off the table, now that a lot of the flowers and buds have come out here if we get down to 20 or below Tues-Wed that will cause some damage. 

It's been the norm for the last several years! Warmth in February and well below temps and above average snow in March and April. 

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14 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

It's been the norm for the last several years! Warmth in February and well below temps and above average snow in March and April. 

Exactly!  I could've told you with the warmth we've had, we are SURE to have a cold March! 

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1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro not even close to land, except Bermuda! Very suppressed run! Right where we want it 7 days out!? :(

Nah the NW trend only applies when it screws us! This one will trend SE. After Dec. it has literally refused to snow here and this wont be any different.

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Euro not even close to land, except Bermuda! Very suppressed run! Right where we want it 7 days out!? :(

It was never about the first wave, the only hope we had was for a second short wave digging in behind the lead low acting on the cold air left behind. The models are now pretty much unanimous in having no secondary wave at all, thus no snow.

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I've seen people on other boards upset with the models that it wont snow as if the models control that. I'll say it again, I think improvements in the models has led to this boring winter. 

It certainly has sucked this winter, but we did get 1 storm. Most years it's only 1-3 anyway. The models haven't given us snow inside of day 6 or so because they're catching on quicker to the fact it's not gonna snow. Which I like better than constant tracking to have the rug snatched out 48 hrs out. 

So as the models get better year after year I'd say our time tracking will drop too. Because let's be honest, in the past 9 out of 10 snows went poof at go time. At least we're not seeing that this year because the modeling seems better inside 7 days.

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A lot of us are frustrated because we didn't get 1 storm.  Draw a line diagonal through Wake and everyone south and east of that line was zilched on the December storm.  That's a lot of posters on this board.

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32 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

I've seen people on other boards upset with the models that it wont snow as if the models control that. I'll say it again, I think improvements in the models has led to this boring winter. 

It certainly has sucked this winter, but we did get 1 storm. Most years it's only 1-3 anyway. The models haven't given us snow inside of day 6 or so because they're catching on quicker to the fact it's not gonna snow. Which I like better than constant tracking to have the rug snatched out 48 hrs out. 

So as the models get better year after year I'd say our time tracking will drop too. Because let's be honest, in the past 9 out of 10 snows went poof at go time. At least we're not seeing that this year because the modeling seems better inside 7 days.

I think it was less of improved modeling and more that there were no threats this winter to track inside of 6 days, because this winter was hot garbage. 

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1 hour ago, southernskimmer said:

I think it was less of improved modeling and more that there were no threats this winter to track inside of 6 days, because this winter was hot garbage. 

This. The PAC reload after a brief tease wasted a lot of winter

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Yeah baby thats what I am talking about, that is the perfect friggen setup for a good NC snowstorm, just need it to get juicier on the NW side, and it will probably be a bit colder than that even.....also that sexy little low relocation off Hatteras would be nice to see actually happen..FV3 has it as well though still mostly suppressed. Of course we now have 6-7 days to watch this one trend away as well probably.....

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah baby thats what I am talking about, that is the perfect friggen setup for a good NC snowstorm, just need it to get juicier on the NW side, and it will probably be a bit colder than that even.....also that sexy little low relocation off Hatteras would be nice to see actually happen..FV3 has it as well though still mostly suppressed. Of course we now have 6-7 days to watch this one trend away as well probably.....

Looks good right now. However, it is too far out for me to believe in it. The Euro is still suppressed.... that's where we want it at this stage.

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49 minutes ago, SouthCentralWakeCo said:

18z GFS

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_fh138-162.thumb.gif.eef87e62fddf2a0a4635605daffd18e2.gif

Yay! More rain for me! Always need cold first! Who cares about NW shifts and more rain, I’ve had enough rain till June atleast! Congrats to NC , again! Don’t know if I’d want to be in the Bullseye 6 days out though!?

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52 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Yay! More rain for me! Always need cold first! Who cares about NW shifts and more rain, I’ve had enough rain till June atleast! Congrats to NC , again! Don’t know if I’d want to be in the Bullseye 6 days out though!?

You should watch those momo videos and pay attention.

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Yoo

anyways trof is lagging even more/more positively tilted, it has trended stronger aswell, sure we like a stronger/sharper trof but we don’t want it to lag to much o

C51BAE88-570F-40A5-BFFF-1C004FD48E13.thumb.gif.13706478786abdd92df811f5415ea295.gif

You can see how a bombing low acted to suppress things, basically like confluence, even with the adjustment to the trof, it managed to be a more suppressed run overall4D5F5A1D-C6B9-437D-9D74-357ED1D16F86.thumb.gif.1f64868f10c655098f2e97cc1af0bc52.gifin my opinion this is our last shot in many parts of the SE, maybe we can have another shot down the road if the AK ridge tries to stay longer or and some sort of blocking around Greenland develops but once that AK ridge/NP block breaks down along with A likely +AO/+NAO, MJO heads for warmer phases, convection from kelvin wave heads to Indonesia, this will argue warmer conditions and a stronger SER, probably the other half of March unless we get freak ULLs lol

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