Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

Late Feb and early March snows are rare here in eastern NC but the #1 and #2 snowfalls of my life have been Feb 24-25th and Mar 1-2......the fact the airmass could be very cold is interesting as the thing about Mar 1980 that sticks out as much as the insane snow totals was the fact it the temps were in the mid teens during the day while snow just dumped....obviously the chances of such a event this year are slim, but I always get a tiny bit more amped for something when it pops up for this timeframe.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That 1980 snow was awesome in Rocky Mount. I had like 24 inches at my house. I had to shovel the drifts from the front door to be able to open the storm door. I recall that about two weeks afterwards it was in the low 80's

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Chubbiegull said:

That 1980 snow was awesome in Rocky Mount. I had like 24 inches at my house. I had to shovel the drifts from the front door to be able to open the storm door. I recall that about two weeks afterwards it was in the low 80's

 

Yeah was in the 60-70's the week leading up to it too.....we couldn't stick a yard stick anywhere and not get 20-25" on it and the Ford Maverick my dad drove was completely covered...we also couldn't leave out the front door the snow was drifted 5-6 ft deep on that side of the house....probably never see anything like it again....PGV officially had 16" but I feel that is way to low....

 

Models do seem to like Mar 3-5ish.....and there seems to be some agreement that it will be colder too....

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah was in the 60-70's the week leading up to it too.....we couldn't stick a yard stick anywhere and not get 20-25" on it and the Ford Maverick my dad drove was completely covered...we also couldn't leave out the front door the snow was drifted 5-6 ft deep on that side of the house....probably never see anything like it again....PGV officially had 16" but I feel that is way to low....

 

Models do seem to like Mar 3-5ish.....and there seems to be some agreement that it will be colder too....

 

I lived in Virginia Beach and we ended up with about 16" or so with 6 foot drifts. Awesome 2 day storm. It would be incredible to get another just like it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

The Euro was going somewhere good at the end of its run, IMO, before it got cut off. 

The 12z EPS has a decent signal for something minor around day 8 and something more significant around day 10....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Late Feb and early March snows are rare here in eastern NC but the #1 and #2 snowfalls of my life have been Feb 24-25th and Mar 1-2......the fact the airmass could be very cold is interesting as the thing about Mar 1980 that sticks out as much as the insane snow totals was the fact it the temps were in the mid teens during the day while snow just dumped....obviously the chances of such a event this year are slim, but I always get a tiny bit more amped for something when it pops up for this timeframe.....

Yeah. 28” from the March 1980 storm in Camden County. Out of power and out of school for about two weeks (power was about a week). That is my benchmark for a great storm. I doubt I will live long enough to see another one like that. I was 10 years old (just turned 10 on February 11) and it was amazing. My friends and I made snow forts and just had a grand time.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely a WOOF signal on the EURO at day 10. Too early to get excited until we get some consistency, but that's a great look for a big dog. Large upper low/PV lob over New England and great PNA Ridge w/ undercutting STJ. We need a strong STJ wave to kick out.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah was in the 60-70's the week leading up to it too.....we couldn't stick a yard stick anywhere and not get 20-25" on it and the Ford Maverick my dad drove was completely covered...we also couldn't leave out the front door the snow was drifted 5-6 ft deep on that side of the house....probably never see anything like it again....PGV officially had 16" but I feel that is way to low....

 

Models do seem to like Mar 3-5ish.....and there seems to be some agreement that it will be colder too....

 

I was 15 years old at that time, and remember it like it was yesterday. We did not get as much snow as folks in the eastern areas but it was colder. 9 degrees F at mid-day with 30 mph winds and heavy snow is something I will never forget. I will probably live the rest of my life and never see that again in this part of the world. I was fortunate enough to be in Chicago during a true blizzard and it was not as much fun as that 1980 storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RAH this morning:

Late week, all major models tend to slide a backdoor cold front
through the area initiating CAD type conditions late Thursday into
Friday morning as a SFC coastal low begins to develop to our
southeast. These features will be worth watching closely, as some
sort of wintry mix may be possible assuming a strong enough CAD and
a close tracking Miller-A or Miller A/B style pattern sets up. Temps
should remain seasonable all week, with highs in the upper 50s/lower
60s while lows dip into the 30s/low 40s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Solak said:

RAH this morning:

Late week, all major models tend to slide a backdoor cold front
through the area initiating CAD type conditions late Thursday into
Friday morning as a SFC coastal low begins to develop to our
southeast. These features will be worth watching closely, as some
sort of wintry mix may be possible assuming a strong enough CAD and
a close tracking Miller-A or Miller A/B style pattern sets up. Temps
should remain seasonable all week, with highs in the upper 50s/lower
60s while lows dip into the 30s/low 40s.

Yeah the euro is hinting at this along with the 6z FV3. Of course the FV3 would then continue into a big winter storm at days 9/10/11.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like this big cutter coming through this weekend will flip the pattern finally and put the low heights,PV on our side of the hemisphere.

MJO has a good chance running out to 3/8 or 3/9 considering this sun rotation is coming much,much weaker than the previous one,first 10 days or so in March are in play IMO.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960.  Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960.  Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

Nope, only the best March of all-time. It's the March by which all others are measured.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960.  Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

Yep. I was 13. 

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

PSU on MA forum mentions that top analog for coming pattern is March 1960.  Nothing exciting happened around here then did it?

I want to pull my kitty fur out everytime I see March 1960 come up! I mean come on, that was 6 decades ago and a whole different climate! I'll buy every single poster from the Upstate a steak dinner if that even comes close to happening again!

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×