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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Tropical tidbits snowmap shows accumulating snow here but the surface maps just show rain... kind of weird.

The FV3 shows many of us starting (switching briefly) as some kind of wintery precip before the rain takes over. But yeah, the snow/sleet amounts are over the top. This models still has some details to work out. 

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RAH is keeping an eye on possibly a little bit of ice for NW and north portions of NC. Nothing that would cause any issues but it's all we got:

 

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 228 AM Saturday...

 

 

Rain and falling temperatures again Sunday.

 

 

CAD appears that it will linger into Sunday. It will get reinforced

as a 1025+ mb high is forecast to extend south into our Piedmont

damming region (even into northeast GA) Sunday. The high is

progressive to the north, cutting off our supply of cold and dry air

Sunday afternoon from the north. However, the next southern branch

wave will be moving in late Sunday morning through the afternoon,

with presumably another cold rain. This presumption is confirmed by

the forecast partial thicknesses that suggest the cold rain as well.

However, the coldest ensemble runs of the models suggest that the

surface wet bulb temperatures will be as low as 30 in the Triad to

Roxboro Sunday afternoon into the evening. There may be some light

icing on elevated surfaces (above the highway system) if this

verifies. Otherwise. evaporative cooling of the 20s (dry) dew points

in the NW and N Piedmont should again lead to falling temperatures

in the damming region again Sunday as the rain falls. Highs 40 NW to

some 50s SE, but falling into the lower 30s west and north and near

40 SE by late Sunday with the rain. POP near 100 percent, and QPF

storm totals for round 2 in the 0.5 to 0.75 range ending Sunday

night.

 

 

&&

 

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

12z GFS coming in a little colder. Looks like some mixed snow for N. NC up into VA. Maybe even a significant event for NW NC into VA. 

Both GFS and CMC coming in Colder... a significant ICE STORM on the CMC, with maybe 1-4" of Snow in northern NC/Southern VA from GFS

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Both GFS and CMC coming in Colder... a significant ICE STORM on the CMC, with maybe 1-4" of Snow in northern NC/Southern VA from GFS

Yep, if I was in NW NC up towards your area I would start looking at this closely. Even down towards my area there could be some brief mixing; which I would call a win. 

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