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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

I still have problems accepting taking maps 2 weeks out even remotely seriously.  A few years ago you would have been tarred and feathered for even posting a single map that far out.  I also don't buy how much better the models have gotten as a reason. There hasn't been a single storm that I can remember where we knew three days out what was going to happen. Besides, at my age, you don't look too far ahead.  Hell, I don't even buy green bananas.

I would tend to agree, but didnt the mid range models do well with the December storm?  They held it together for a good week ahead, albeit with bullseye gyrations of a couple hundred miles over the course of the runup.

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I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me.

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35 minutes ago, cheapdad00 said:

I would tend to agree, but didnt the mid range models do well with the December storm?  They held it together for a good week ahead, albeit with bullseye gyrations of a couple hundred miles over the course of the runup.

Yeah, the December storm was pretty stready from 7-8 days out.  Quite the exception.

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2 hours ago, jburns said:

I still have problems accepting taking maps 2 weeks out even remotely seriously.  A few years ago you would have been tarred and feathered for even posting a single map that far out.  I also don't buy how much better the models have gotten as a reason. There hasn't been a single storm that I can remember where we knew three days out what was going to happen. Besides, at my age, you don't look too far ahead.  Hell, I don't even buy green bananas.

We live in a land of digital snow now. To borrow a repeated quote from JB and phrase it for my own good.

"Enjoy the computer generated snow, its the only snow you got." 

Who wants to look at maps of 850's +10 abn and chase perfect picnic weather lol. New Age Metorology!

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Sigh... I even got a little excited when the FV3 spit out single digit highs for this time period.  :nerdsmiley:

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40 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I think I posted a 348 hour run of the GFS for that December storm after it was over and it was surprisingly close. However, it lost the storm only to bring it back a week out. I agree with JBurns here, we can't take a fantasy storm serious these days. I don't even get interested until it's 100 hours or less out. By 72 hours it's more believable.... but that's just me.

I was posting those maps showing ops and ensembles suporting a flipback to colder wx and a pattern more conducive to opportunity for frozen. In addition to being sarcsstic and attempting a little  friendly humor with Mack who understandably rips JBs LR forecast. I know as well as anyone a day 9 fantasy storm will be gone in 6hrs on models. 

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34 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I was posting those maps showing ops and ensembles suporting a flipback to colder wx and a pattern more conducive to opportunity for frozen. In addition to being sarcsstic and attempting a little  friendly humor with Mack who understandably rips JBs LR forecast. I know as well as anyone a day 9 fantasy storm will be gone in 6hrs on models. 

Way to commit! Your obs of the models have been solid today. Sorry you were being sarcastic. Snow is going to ban you for calling it "fatties" anyway.  ;)

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Hello.....hello.....hello...

Is anybody in here.....here.....here.....

(Slams door and walks away confused and in search of model runs showing snow)

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32 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

The models must REALLY be in TORCH MODE, because there has been NO activity at all in this thread today. LOL

As olaf posted above there is a fantasy winter storm at day 10. But we've been burned so much this year with day 10 storms nobody is taking it seriously. Maybe if it's still showing Saturday and Sunday we might start beating the drum; but even then only if other models support it.  

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Maybe we can go into torch mode and start threads to track warmups to over 55°.  Of course the same result would happen across the board where the SC/GA peeps get ticked off because they easily blow past 55° while the NC and mountain peeps are the only ones posting because its gonna be "close". :P

We cant win this year.  :gun_bandana::snowman:

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Maybe we can go into torch mode and start threads to track warmups to over 55°.  Of course the same result would happen across the board where the SC/GA peeps get ticked off because they easily blow past 55° while the NC and mountain peeps are the only ones posting because its gonna be "close". :P

We cant win this year.  :gun_bandana::snowman:

Ha!  Like that Seinfeld episode where George does the opposite of every instinct to get what he really wants.  Worth a shot!

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It's pathetic we are in prime climo at Jan 31st and for purposes of this thread it may as well be Jul 31st.

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10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo.  FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.  

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo.  FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.  

The regular GFS just picked it up too. 

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Yea, I actually went back through the last 7 or 8 FV GFS runs and pretty much every one of them has this storm with a nice look to it.

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0z FV GFS lost the icy look in NC Piedmont Sunday afternoon 2/10, but it’s back at 6z. Also, it has been wicked consistent in showing something next weekend for a few days now. GFS and CMC are not enthused, however.

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31 minutes ago, mwp1023 said:

Not much to talk about and its Feb 1st...

First half of Feb, through the 15th, looks abysmal on op runs and ensembles! Hard to want to talk about the same thing we have been since Dec 10th! This is looking like Jan/Feb 2012 redux, minus a few nuisance freezing rain events in foothills 

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17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

First half of Feb, through the 15th, looks abysmal on op runs and ensembles! Hard to want to talk about the same thing we have been since Dec 10th! This is looking like Jan/Feb 2012 redux, minus a few nuisance freezing rain events in foothills 

Just sad. May as well be 70 from here out. We'll end up with the same result anyway. Snowless!

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Hit the Mid-60's today.. this time last year here in Wilmywood.. We were recovering from a snowstorm. Looking forward to a split flow, with Late winter chances here on the SENC coast..  back loaded  Winter  ;) 

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