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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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5 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB has punted to last week or so of Feb and March! Who cares because his whole winter forecast has been a fumblrooski, fumblaya, ...

Yep along with about every forecaster in the business

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33 minutes ago, oconeexman said:

Yea it's been showing a southeast ridge...aka warm up for several days on ensembles and global operational models. The warm is coming I'd be willing to bet any amount it will verify

Well, the only way I'm seeing snow is on my trip to Keystone CO in a week.  I guess I better enjoy the snow there, because it ain't happening here!

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Some low 40s showing up under this band on radar atm Jacksonville SW towards Gainesville.

Can't help to feel places RDU east maybe see something Frozen.

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JB thinks the models have it wrong in 2 weeks and the blocking ridge will be where he has it circled around February 11 which will keep a cold push and active storm track through the South.

Let’s hope it works out 

 

rCkPWa5.jpg

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51 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Some low 40s showing up under this band on radar atm Jacksonville SW towards Gainesville.

Can't help to feel places RDU east maybe see something Frozen.

The mountains will block that.

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52 minutes ago, FLweather said:

Some low 40s showing up under this band on radar atm Jacksonville SW towards Gainesville.

Can't help to feel places RDU east maybe see something Frozen.

Yeah any other time that batch of precip would slide right up over us here in eastern NC.....instead it will stay 50-100 miles east of us......

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1 hour ago, nchighcountrywx said:

JB thinks the models have it wrong in 2 weeks and the blocking ridge will be where he has it circled around February 11 which will keep a cold push and active storm track through the South.

Let’s hope it works out 

 

rCkPWa5.jpg

The Pacific - North America pattern looks bad (warm) for the first 10 days of February. It would take a big block in the green circle there to overcome it

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Grit, what happened here for this to go sour in the 11th hour?  Just a couple days ago we were looking at least a better cold regime.  Maybe not sustained but certainly better for next weekend.  Now all that's changed.

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10 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Grit, what happened here for this to go sour in the 11th hour?  Just a couple days ago we were looking at least a better cold regime.  Maybe not sustained but certainly better for next weekend.  Now all that's changed.

The cold plunge with the PV lobe dropping into the Great Lakes has held fine on the modeling, but the change has been that the subsequent flip to a poor Pacific pattern is moving in quicker now.  We just haven’t been able to sustain an eastern trough this winter that is more common during positive ENSO

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Thanks for responding.  Guessing the outlook for the pac pattern changing is still up in the air

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3 hours ago, FLweather said:

Some low 40s showing up under this band on radar atm Jacksonville SW towards Gainesville.

Can't help to feel places RDU east maybe see something Frozen.

I thought this was pretty cool to see in NWS Jacksonville discussion.

“Mainly dry conditions were occurring across interior southeast Georgia, and only a few hundredths of an inch are possible in this region tonight. The radar this evening was showing enhanced reflectivities across the Suwannee River basin and Alachua County, but this is due to bright banding. Bright banding is relatively rare in our area, and this is due to snow melting as it is falling aloft, with a film of water on the melting snowflake causing the radar to see it as a giant raindrop or small hail. By the time it reaches the surface, the precip is just a cold rain. The radar, however, will overestimate precipitation in the bright banding areas, so will have to rely on observations.”

 

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Not sure if this is a cause or a symptom but the PAC jet is screaming once again. MJO effects? I guess when we have a stout western ridge it becomes muted but without it it’s a total train wreck? Or is a screaming PAC jet what causes the ridge to break down and push eastward? Just trying to learn a little more while we have some down time in between tracking blockbuster snow storms. Thanks 

172E0283-5780-4E0A-9A80-1FC92FCE2981.thumb.png.b1792a5b552cf287a1cdc3e324c8076d.png

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Based on a pretty unified EPS and GEFS consensus of a western trough and SE ridge after this week, and given the fact that since 1930 there have only been five 1" or greater snow events in Atlanta past Feb 15, I am close to saying wait till next year here for snow after the Tues. event.

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We'll Im not an expert and dont mind calling myself out. But my amateur seasonal forecast from November is no doubt gonna bust on temps and at best has a  50/50 chance of verefying snowfall wise. I feel strongly we will have too punt the first 10 days of Feb at a minimum and possibly several more. Still time here to score one more storm late Feb, early March so well see. But the models LR no doubt head faked me out big time and on two seperate occasions this winter. The pac was a mess late Dec into first 9 days of January and its getting ready to flood us agian with pacific air. So outside of tommorows cold front, its gonna take a last second pattern rollover for late Feb early March to see anymore frozen. Really hate for SC peeps and down east guys who have been shutout so far. One thing Ive learned is I cringe everytime I hear el nino mentioned. Use to root for the weak ones,but as we can see its just not worth it. To many days wasted feeling pacific origin air verse colder canadian. Always root for the cold and get it to stay.. Then look for some precip, itll come along down here. We are polar opposite this year because of the el nino signal and pac lined up the way it did.

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12 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

Is this winter toast, in your opinion?

not toast...maybe a bagel or a doughnut...as we 'dough'...'know' how it will go from here :)  But glad we cashed in December Mack

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22 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

New Euro Week 3

Michael Ventrice (‪@MJVentrice‬)

1/28/19, 17:44

 

Verification pic.twitter.com/RXduMxnd1V


 

 

3DA848E4-40A7-407B-A67E-FD08A59759BF.jpeg

Now its finally got a clue. You can take that to the bank.

Or maybe it follows its trend of being dead wrong like it has all winter. If that's the case we're in business. Its crap too and why anyone puts faith in it baffles me.

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32 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Now its finally got a clue. You can take that to the bank.

Or maybe it follows its trend of being dead wrong like it has all winter. If that's the case we're in business. Its crap too and why anyone puts faith in it baffles me.

Exactly,  the weeklies have been crap all winter and I for sure have no faith in what they're showing now.

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Ouch. And thats AFTER the first week of warm February weather. Could be a +3 or +4 month for sure. 

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1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

Now its finally got a clue. You can take that to the bank.

Or maybe it follows its trend of being dead wrong like it has all winter. If that's the case we're in business. Its crap too and why anyone puts faith in it baffles me.

Agreed...These same weeklies were just spitting out not too long ago how all of Feb was going to be wall to wall cold....And, if I am not mistaken it was saying back in december that pipe busting cold was coming just after the new year. Which kept being pushed back week after every agonizing week... And, we all know how that has turned out so far in January...

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52 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I'm ready for warm weather and sun. 

I'm afraid it won't be sunny, 3 to 4 inches of rain next 2 weeks likely for you

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