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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Euro now close to warning criteria snow for the Triad and N&W areas of the triangle. 

The key seems to be some enhancement that comes through Louisiana and then through S MS/AL/GA that almost seems to slide south around the mountains. 

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4 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Euro now close to warning criteria snow for the Triad and N&W areas of the triangle. 

The key seems to be some enhancement that comes through Louisiana and then through S MS/AL/GA that almost seems to slide south around the mountains. 

Thanks QC.  Are you referring to the Tues/Wed snow?

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11 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

So, the Tuesday event is now within NAM range- time for a separate thread? Not really long range any more......

No, today's trends will settle the score

#yougotNAMed

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5 hours ago, goldman75 said:

00z Canadian not on shore yet with the Monday system but it made a leap west 

Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

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21 hours ago, CaryWx said:

Question for the board.   Does anyone really see any sustainable cold air coming in?  I see transient progressive stuff and not any real -nao. 

Will be fighting the calendar in about 3 weeks and running out of time. 

I think the cold that was expected to settle more in the northeast and impact us has set up over the upper Midwest and appears to stay that way a while.  Still time to settle down our way but time is running short and avg temps are headed north from here. 

TW

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17 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

Yeah, I’m as amateur as they come when it comes to knowing what I’m talking about but we would be heavily relying on wetbulb I think.  Need some heavy rates of precip to cool off the surface

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16 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Not sure temps would be good enough even if we do get the precip to work in on the Monday storm for the coastal plains.

This is how it happens for us though.....hinted at in the long range, poorly modeled in the mid term then comes back in the 1-2 day range....still need some big changes in the models today, need it a bit cooler at the surface but honestly if we can get heavy enough precip we should do ok this far inland....

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06Z Rgem looks good temps in the mid 30's has the low much closer and moving more NNE has precip way further inland.....starting to think this could happen.....

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.thumb.png.054132b99e0916da8ecc80971edba23e.png

 

 

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14 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

06Z Rgem looks good temps in the mid 30's has the low much closer and moving more NNE has precip way further inland.....starting to think this could happen.....

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_54.thumb.png.054132b99e0916da8ecc80971edba23e.png

 

 

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

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7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

I really think this may be an RDU-FAY special

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10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

50-100 miles NW over two days.  When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited!  Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

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9 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

May get enough dynamic cooling.  I hate relying on that.  But we haven’t really had many opportunities this winter.  This one will be close.  I’m normally a cold first guy, but since we have to work with what we got, I’m all for getting the precip in here and rolling the dice.  Boundary temps look ugly, though...no arguing that.

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13 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

Yeah the temps are not good enough but like CR says we need precip to even worry about any chance at all. Just sucks the euro and fv3 showed some good hits a few days ago and  now we may get the storm but be too warm.

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So at hr48 the NAM is slightly more west and a little stronger, but still has most precip off the coast. Not sure how much more shifts west we can get..  ^^just saw ajr's post. If we got heavy enough rates it could work. 

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Big time warm up coming starting early next week according to Euro and GFS. Could get in the 50s then 60s for most! :sizzle: 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019012600_234_480_210.png

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We're just too close to the event. How much more shifts can the models do this close to the event. If we were 4/5 days out we could be more excited. **unless the models really don't have a clue....

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19 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Watch us get the coastal but miss out on boundary layer temps.  I just don’t see how it will be cold enough for anything but rain, height falls in whatever semblance of a conveyer are not sharp enough.

12Z nam sounding is close enough that I will take my chances and this is without better rates, what we need is this thing to shift west another 100 miles.....or amp up and get that NW precip shield growth...

nam_2019012612_054_35.57--77_29.thumb.png.12d26a2bd8114a31b35b29a240bc98bb.png

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First run I have seen with some snow in NE NC through 57hrs, ~1” using Kuchera and 2” on stock 10:1.

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Take a step back, so what features are present that would either block the LP up the coast (dont see anything) and draw it back with a phase? (Thought we gave up on that already?)  Something has to be there for the models to keep hinting at a coastal.  I'm certainly not a modelologist so I'll sit back and learn.  

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21 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Take a step back, so what features are present that would either block the LP up the coast (dont see anything) and draw it back with a phase? (Thought we gave up on that already?)  Something has to be there for the models to keep hinting at a coastal.  I'm certainly not a modelologist so I'll sit back and learn.  

Look at your 500mb vorticity evolution preferably on a site like Nexlab where you can slide the panels back and forth.  There’s an 850 too, would like to see it more tucked in to the coast which means H5 needs to sharper and tune a little sooner.

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The system I am interested in is the one on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think northern and central Mississippi and Alabama May see a good amount of snow. Why is no one talking about this?

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1 minute ago, Touchet said:

The system I am interested in is the one on Tuesday and Wednesday. I think northern and central Mississippi and Alabama May see a good amount of snow. Why is no one talking about this?

Most everyone here is only interested in the Carolinas, and to a lesser extent, North GA.

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