Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

6z gfs and fv3 both made sizable shifts west w/ precip for monday. still within range 66 hrs out to see precip make it further inland if trends continue.

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_12.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ajr said:

From what I saw posted elsewhere, 6z EPS looks even better than 0z for Carolina folks. Maybe this isn’t a drill folks!

yea it does, precip inland on the coast and a few members have big dogs offshore throwing precip as far west as the mtns.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yea it does, precip inland on the coast and a few members have big dogs offshore throwing precip as far west as the mtns.

See for us eastern guys those members showing snow that far west are probably killers for us east of 95 but I havent seen them. Sadly when we see our biggest storms the precip rarely gets west of rdu 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

for one of the few times in winter I'm rooting hard for the northwest trend! I feel dirty for saying it

I feel dirty about it too... Considering where I live is 95% torch with a NW trend, this is the one time I actually need it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

yea it does, precip inland on the coast and a few members have big dogs offshore throwing precip as far west as the mtns.

How far inland for snow?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A few more tweaks in the right direction is going to make a huge difference in the ultimate outcome.  It is really that close in the upper levels.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Still need cold air and so far temps on the models are not going to cut it.

It’s a storm that depends on dynamical cooling and a strong cyclone to drag 850s down. Need a phase 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Column is cold, guys.  Surface layer is above freezing, initially.  Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose.  Probably won't get that far west, though.  Light precipitation will probably be rain.  Heavy precip will most likely be snow.  Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good.  We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some may be confused but we have two threats it seems.  One late this weekend and one mid week.  These appear to be affecting two different areas. 

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Column is cold, guys.  Surface layer is above freezing, initially.  Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose.  Probably won't get that far west, though.  Light precipitation will probably be rain.  Heavy precip will most likely be snow.  Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good.  We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections.

Agreed ,12z runs on deck. Let's see where this goes.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Gfs much wetter for north Ga for the potential Tuesday event 

gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. 

Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, FallsLake said:

For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. 

yea it made a big jump. would be really excited if i was on the coast.  still hoping for that nw trend to continue to zero hour for us.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, FallsLake said:

For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. 

RGEM has interaction much earlier as well. GFS will be telling if this trend will continue 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business. 

Falls,  Was the shift due to the storm strengthening/bigger?  6z gfs had it as a 999 of the coast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing to note, the NAM has been behind quite a bit here, so it's kind of playing catch-up.  Need to watch the FV-3, UK, and Euro.  Maybe the GFS and CMC after that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mryanwilkes said:

Which potential threat is this one? 4 days out?

Sunday night/Monday-ish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mryanwilkes said:

Which potential threat is this one? 4 days out?

Early Monday (1/28)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Falls,  Was the shift due to the storm strengthening/bigger?  6z gfs had it as a 999 of the coast

It's a little stronger but not much. Looks like the eastern trough is holding back some allowing the storm to turn more northward.

Edit: and comparing the RGEM to the NAM at 48 hours you can see it digging a little more to the west near La. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Still need cold air and so far temps on the models are not going to cut it.

 

28 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Column is cold, guys.  Surface layer is above freezing, initially.  Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose.  Probably won't get that far west, though.  Light precipitation will probably be rain.  Heavy precip will most likely be snow.  Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good.  We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections.

For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways.  The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side.  The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder.  The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps.  I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave.  There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast.  The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, griteater said:

 

For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways.  The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side.  The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder.  The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps.  I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave.  There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast.  The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge.

Yeah... NW trend can be your best friend or worse enemy... 4 days out and if it shifts much further us lowcountry SC/ENC guys are stuck with cold rain unless we luck up with a 1-million phase and drags the 850s down... It is going to be a boardwide nail biter 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, griteater said:

For Sunday/Monday, the models are going about this storm in slightly different ways.  The Euro is keying on the southern wave in the gulf and detaches it a bit from the northern stream as it moves out of the gulf then northeast into the eastern Carolinas - this evolution is on the warmer side.  The FV3 and UKMet are keying on the northern stream wave that drops down into Bama, then east into the Carolinas, while moreso depositing the southern wave in the gulf - this evolution is a bit colder.  The GFS is kind of a blend of the two camps.  I would root for the FV3/UKMet solution, but with a stronger dive and "bottoming out" of the northern stream wave.  There is a long line of storms going back in time that have trended west in that area off the SE coast.  The early Jan storm last year kept trending west, for example....but getting the temps and storm to cooperate will be a bit of a challenge.

Canadian is more in the FV3/UKMet camp and is colder along the coast....on to the 12z's

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Lookout said:

gfs and euro ensembles look pretty decent for the nw half. ....but of course areas to the east of 85 look pretty much screwed with the leeside screwzone in full effect...which means i'll likely have to make a trip to see it. But an inch or two looks possible and north/west of an atlanta to gainesville to clayton line. In fact some of the euro ensembles show several inches for the mountains. 

Would love to see this thing put down a few inches ahead of this arctic airmass to maximize the low temp potential. Although the euro doesn't look nearly as impressive with the outbreak as it once did. 

 

speaking of that..the 12z icon goes nuts over tn thanks to that snow cover..5 to 15 below :yikes:

unfortunately looks like it screws ga/sc snow wise (east of atlanta/gainesville). does keep temps in the 20s for highs though, even here in the heart of the screwzone. 

 

 

icon_T2m_seus_41.png

icon_asnow_seus_37.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Lookout said:

speaking of that..the 12z icon goes nuts over tn thanks to that snow cover..5 to 15 below :yikes:

unfortunately looks like it screws ga/sc snow wise (east of atlanta/gainesville). does keep temps in the 20s for highs though, even here in the heart of the screwzone. 

 

 

icon_T2m_seus_41.png

icon_asnow_seus_37.png

Well it is a start.... Lots of wiggle room left for that one

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

12z GFS did exactly as I thought it would... Precip closer to the coast and temps a tick warmer for Monday 

Not much change that I could see

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×